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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 2019

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 68 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 78

Wilder than 78% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 11.8 expected

  • Biggest shockThe Citadel over Georgia Tech2.4% chance · won 27-24
  • Runner-upKansas over Boston College8.2% chance · won 48-24
  • Runner-upKansas State over Mississippi State19% chance · won 31-24

Upsets

Fri, Sep 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
North Carolina@Wake Forest
43%
57%
18
24
✓
WAKE −2.1
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
Kansas@Boston CollegeUpset
8.2%
92%
48
24
✗
BC −21.2
–
–
Final
Washington StatevsHouston
70%
30%
31
24
✓
WSU −8.4
–
–

Sat, Sep 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 11 games

Final
Arkansas State@#5Georgia
4.6%
95%
0
55
✓
UGA −26.0
–
–
Final
Kansas State@#19Mississippi StateUpset
19%
81%
31
24
✗
MSST −13.0
–
–
Final
NC State@West Virginia
50%
50%
27
44
✗
NCSU −0.6
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@IllinoisUpset
24%
76%
34
31
✗
ILL −10.3
–
–
Final
#3Ohio State@Indiana
87%
13%
51
10
✓
OSU −18.1
–
–
Final
#21Maryland@TempleUpset
71%
29%
17
20
✗
MD −8.9
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@#9Penn State
10%
90%
10
17
✓
PSU −19.0
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Cincinnati
15%
86%
13
35
✓
CIN −15.9
–
–
Final
Air Force@Colorado
26%
74%
30
23
✗
COLO −9.5
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Ball State
62%
38%
41
31
✓
FAU −5.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico@#6Notre Dame
1.8%
98%
14
66
✓
ND −32.6
–
–

Afternoon 20 games

Final
Akron@Central Michigan
47%
53%
24
45
✓
CMU −0.8
–
–
Final
#2Alabama@South Carolina
89%
11%
47
23
✓
ALA −19.1
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Tulsa
75%
25%
40
21
✓
OKST −10.8
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Minnesota
12%
88%
32
35
✓
MINN −17.5
–
–
Final
UNLV@Northwestern
12%
88%
14
30
✓
NU −17.7
–
–
Final
Stanford@#22UCF
32%
68%
27
45
✓
UCF −6.7
–
–
Final
#7USC@BYUUpset
80%
20%
27
30
✗
USC −13.3
–
–
Final
Army@UTSA
90%
9.8%
31
13
✓
ARMY −20.5
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Navy
22%
78%
10
42
✓
NAVY −11.2
–
–
Final
Memphis@South Alabama
85%
15%
42
6
✓
MEM −16.7
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Arkansas
28%
72%
34
55
✓
ARK −8.5
–
–
Final
#18Iowa@Iowa State
75%
25%
18
17
✓
IOWA −10.8
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#17Michigan StateUpset
20%
80%
10
7
✗
MSU −12.6
–
–
Final
LouisvillevsWestern Kentucky
78%
22%
38
21
✓
LOU −12.2
–
–
Final
North Texas@California
21%
79%
17
23
✓
CAL −11.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Bowling Green
71%
29%
35
7
✓
LT −8.9
–
–
Final
UMass@Charlotte
16%
84%
17
52
✓
CLT −15.2
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Troy
43%
57%
47
42
✗
TROY −2.2
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Liberty
62%
38%
17
35
✗
BUF −5.3
–
–
Final
Ohio@Marshall
34%
66%
31
33
✓
MRSH −5.7
–
–

Prime time 9 games

Final
Kent State@#10Auburn
1.3%
99%
16
55
✓
AUB −34.8
–
–
Final
#16Florida@#23Kentucky
53%
47%
29
21
✓
FLA −1.8
–
–
Final
Duke@Middle Tennessee
58%
42%
41
18
✓
DUKE −3.7
–
–
Final
Texas State@SMU
6.3%
94%
17
47
✓
SMU −23.5
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Western Michigan
32%
68%
10
57
✓
WMU −6.6
–
–
Final
TCU@Purdue
42%
58%
34
13
✗
PUR −2.8
–
–
Final
#1Clemson@Syracuse
96%
4.0%
41
6
✓
CLEM −27.7
–
–
Final
Florida State@Virginia
34%
66%
24
31
✓
UVA −5.9
–
–
Final
Hawaii@#24Washington
9.0%
91%
20
52
✓
WASH −20.4
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Texas Tech@Arizona
63%
37%
14
28
✗
TTU −5.4
–
–

Sun, Sep 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
#11Oklahoma@UCLA
85%
15%
48
14
✓
OU −16.3
–
–
Final
#12TexasvsRice
99%
1.4%
48
13
✓
TEX −34.7
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Nebraska
17%
84%
8
44
✓
NEB −14.6
–
–
Final
San Diego State@New Mexico State
78%
22%
31
10
✓
SDSU −12.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 14 · 7:30 PM ET Northwestern State at #4 LSU LSU −60.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 14 · 4:00 PM ET SE Louisiana at Ole Miss Ole Miss −35.5 99%
Sat, Sep 14 · 7:30 PM ET Southeast Missouri State at #25 Missouri Missouri −48.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 14 · 12:00 PM ET Chattanooga at Tennessee Tennessee −34.5 99%
Sat, Sep 14 · 7:00 PM ET Lamar at #15 Texas A&M Texas A&M −57.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 14 · 12:30 PM ET The Citadel at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −30.5 98%
Sat, Sep 14 · 4:00 PM ET Bethune-Cookman at Miami (FL) Miami (FL) −41.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 14 · 12:00 PM ET Furman at Virginia Tech Virginia Tech −36.6 99%
Sat, Sep 14 · 10:45 PM ET Montana at #14 Oregon Oregon −41.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 14 · 4:15 PM ET Cal Poly at Oregon State Oregon State −17.4 88%
Sat, Sep 14 · 4:15 PM ET Idaho State at #20 Utah Utah −47.3 >99%
Sat, Sep 14 · 7:00 PM ET New Hampshire at FIU FIU −24.6 95%
Sat, Sep 14 · 10:15 PM ET Portland State at Boise State Boise State −40.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 14 · 5:00 PM ET Idaho at Wyoming Wyoming −28.0 96%
Sat, Sep 14 · 7:00 PM ET Weber State at Nevada Nevada −29.9 97%
Sat, Sep 14 · 6:00 PM ET South Carolina State at USF USF −20.1 91%
Sun, Sep 15 · TBD Missouri State at Tulane Tulane −14.2 83%
Sat, Sep 14 · 7:00 PM ET Murray State at Toledo Toledo −37.5 99%
Sat, Sep 14 · 2:00 PM ET Norfolk State at Coastal Carolina Coastal Carolina −20.8 91%
Sat, Sep 14 · 7:30 PM ET Texas Southern at Louisiana Louisiana −27.8 96%