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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 2019

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 58 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 17

Wilder than 17% of weeks in the archive.

8 upsets against 13.8 expected

  • Biggest shockBuffalo over Temple18% chance · won 38-22
  • Runner-upUCLA over Washington State18% chance · won 67-63
  • Runner-upSan Jose State over Arkansas18% chance · won 31-24

Upsets

Fri, Sep 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
#22Utah@#15USC
35%
65%
23
30
✓
USC −6.6
–
–
Final
Air Force@Boise State
37%
63%
19
30
✓
BOIS −5.6
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Houston@Tulane
37%
63%
31
38
✓
TULN −5.5
–
–

Sat, Sep 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
Southern Miss@#1Alabama
0.8%
99%
7
49
✓
ALA −40.2
–
–
Final
Tennessee@#13Florida
16%
84%
3
34
✓
FLA −16.6
–
–
Final
California@Ole Miss
47%
53%
28
20
✗
MISS −1.2
–
–
Final
#6LSU@Vanderbilt
88%
12%
66
38
✓
LSU −19.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Iowa State
18%
82%
20
72
✓
ISU −15.4
–
–
Final
UConn@Indiana
4.1%
96%
3
38
✓
IU −29.0
–
–
Final
#17Michigan State@Northwestern
70%
30%
31
10
✓
MSU −8.6
–
–
Final
#10Michigan@#9Wisconsin
43%
57%
14
35
✓
WIS −3.1
–
–
Final
Boston College@Rutgers
66%
34%
30
16
✓
BC −6.9
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Syracuse
37%
63%
33
52
✓
SYR −5.6
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@UMass
81%
19%
62
28
✓
CCU −14.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Ohio
55%
45%
45
25
✓
UL −1.9
–
–

Afternoon 17 games

Final
Troy@Akron
77%
23%
35
7
✓
TROY −12.3
–
–
Final
#8Auburn@#18Texas A&M
56%
44%
28
20
✓
AUB −2.2
–
–
Final
SMU@TCU
32%
68%
41
38
✗
TCU −7.8
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@#3Ohio State
0.6%
99%
5
76
✓
OSU −41.6
–
–
Final
Louisville@Florida State
37%
63%
24
35
✓
FSU −5.7
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@North Carolina
51%
49%
34
31
✓
APP −0.5
–
–
Final
#14UCF@PittsburghUpset
73%
27%
34
35
✗
UCF −10.2
–
–
Final
#19Washington@BYU
64%
36%
45
19
✓
WASH −5.7
–
–
Final
South Alabama@UAB
22%
78%
3
35
✓
UAB −12.6
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Tulsa
46%
54%
21
24
✓
TLSA −1.9
–
–
Final
Temple@BuffaloUpset
82%
18%
22
38
✗
TEM −15.3
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Kent State
22%
78%
20
62
✓
KENT −12.9
–
–
Final
#24Kentucky@#21Mississippi State
40%
60%
13
28
✓
MSST −4.3
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Missouri
42%
58%
14
34
✓
MIZ −3.7
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Miami (FL)
4.8%
95%
12
17
✓
MIA −27.6
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Kansas
70%
30%
29
24
✓
WVU −8.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@New Mexico
22%
78%
52
55
✓
UNM −12.8
–
–

Prime time 9 games

Final
Baylor@Rice
90%
9.9%
21
13
✓
BAY −21.3
–
–
Final
Ball State@NC State
11%
89%
23
34
✓
NCSU −20.2
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Virginia
3.2%
97%
17
28
✓
UVA −30.8
–
–
Final
#16Oregon@Stanford
63%
37%
21
6
✓
ORE −5.4
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Texas State
56%
44%
34
37
✗
GAST −2.3
–
–
Final
San Jose State@ArkansasUpset
18%
82%
31
24
✗
ARK −15.0
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#11Texas
24%
76%
30
36
✓
TEX −11.7
–
–
Final
Charlotte@#2Clemson
0.4%
>99%
10
52
✓
CLEM −44.2
–
–
Final
UTSA@North Texas
18%
82%
3
45
✓
UNT −15.5
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
Colorado@Arizona State
35%
65%
34
31
✗
ASU −6.7
–
–
Final
Toledo@Colorado State
73%
27%
41
35
✓
TOL −10.0
–
–
Final
UCLA@#25Washington StateUpset
18%
82%
67
63
✗
WSU −15.1
–
–
Final
Utah State@San Diego State
60%
40%
23
17
✓
USU −4.0
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
FIU@Louisiana Tech
34%
66%
31
43
✓
LT −6.9
–
–

Sun, Sep 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#5Notre Dame@#4Georgia
41%
59%
17
23
✓
UGA −4.1
–
–
Final
Nebraska@Illinois
68%
32%
42
38
✓
NEB −7.4
–
–
Final
Nevada@UTEP
82%
18%
37
21
✓
NEV −15.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 21 · 12:00 PM ET Elon at Wake Forest Wake Forest −45.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 21 · 6:00 PM ET Wagner at Florida Atlantic Florida Atlantic −40.7 99%
Sat, Sep 21 · 12:00 PM ET Morgan State at Army Army −63.3 >99%
Sat, Sep 21 · 6:00 PM ET Hampton at Liberty Liberty −10.4 73%
Sat, Sep 21 · 6:00 PM ET William & Mary at East Carolina East Carolina −25.3 94%
Sat, Sep 21 · 10:00 PM ET Sacramento State at Fresno State Fresno State −20.2 89%
Sat, Sep 21 · 11:59 PM ET Central Arkansas at Hawaii Hawaii −24.9 93%
Sat, Sep 21 · 3:00 PM ET Central Connecticut at Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan −29.4 96%
Sat, Sep 21 · 7:00 PM ET Southern Illinois at Arkansas State Arkansas State −28.8 96%