The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Bowls slate, 2024

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 46 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 73

Wilder than 73% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 16.2 expected

  • Biggest shockArkansas State over Bowling Green26% chance · won 38-31
  • Runner-upMichigan over Alabama27% chance · won 19-13
  • Runner-upUConn over North Carolina27% chance · won 27-14

Upsets

Sat, Dec 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
South AlabamavsWestern Michigan
69%
31%
30
23
✓
USA −8.3
–
–

Tue, Dec 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
MemphisvsWest Virginia
55%
45%
42
37
✓
MEM −2.4
–
–

Wed, Dec 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Western KentuckyvsJames Madison
32%
68%
17
27
✓
JMU −6.8
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
CaliforniavsUNLV
42%
58%
13
24
✓
UNLV −2.9
–
–

Fri, Dec 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
OhiovsJacksonville State
53%
47%
30
27
✓
OHIO −1.6
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Tulanevs#20Florida
38%
62%
8
33
✓
FLA −4.4
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#11Indiana@#2Notre Dame
20%
80%
17
27
✓
ND −12.7
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Georgia SouthernvsSam Houston
58%
42%
26
31
✗
GASO −3.9
–
–

Sat, Dec 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
#10SMU@#7Penn State
31%
69%
10
38
✓
PSU −7.4
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#13Clemson@#3Texas
20%
80%
24
38
✓
TEX −12.9
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#9Tennessee@#1Ohio State
22%
78%
17
42
✓
OSU −11.9
–
–

Mon, Dec 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
Coastal Carolina@UTSA
34%
66%
15
44
✓
UTSA −6.1
–
–
Final
Northern IllinoisvsFresno State
42%
58%
28
20
✗
FRES −2.6
–
–

Tue, Dec 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
USFvsSan Jose State
44%
56%
41
39
✗
SJSU −2.1
–
–

Thu, Dec 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
PittsburghvsToledo
70%
30%
46
48
✗
PITT −9.1
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
RutgersvsKansas State
32%
68%
41
44
✓
KSU −7.0
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Arkansas StatevsBowling Green
26%
74%
38
31
✗
BGSU −9.8
–
–

Fri, Dec 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
OklahomavsNavy
67%
33%
20
21
✗
OU −7.4
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Georgia TechvsVanderbilt
58%
42%
27
35
✗
GT −3.8
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
SyracusevsWashington State
55%
45%
52
35
✓
SYR −2.7
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
#17Texas A&Mvs#18USC
50%
50%
31
35
✗
TA&M −0.6
–
–

Sat, Dec 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 3 games

Final
UConnvsNorth Carolina
27%
73%
27
14
✗
UNC −9.4
–
–
Final
Boston CollegevsNebraska
41%
59%
15
20
✓
NEB −3.2
–
–
Final
LouisianavsTCU
28%
72%
3
34
✓
TCU −8.9
–
–

Afternoon 3 games

Final
Iowa Statevs#12Miami (FL)Upset
35%
65%
42
41
✗
MIA −5.8
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)vsColorado State
56%
44%
43
17
✓
M-OH −2.8
–
–
Final
East CarolinavsNC State
33%
67%
26
21
✗
NCSU −6.4
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
BYUvs#21ColoradoUpset
44%
56%
36
14
✗
COLO −2.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana TechvsArmy
10.0%
90%
6
27
✓
ARMY −20.1
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Texas TechvsArkansas
46%
54%
26
39
✓
ARK −1.1
–
–

Mon, Dec 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
#22Iowavs#24Missouri
49%
51%
24
27
✓
IOWA −0.3
–
–

Tue, Dec 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
#5Alabamavs#19Michigan
73%
27%
13
19
✗
ALA −10.4
–
–
Final
#15LouisvillevsWashington
69%
31%
35
34
✓
LOU −8.3
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
#14South CarolinavsIllinoisUpset
71%
29%
17
21
✗
SC −9.3
–
–
Final
Baylorvs#16LSU
34%
66%
31
44
✓
LSU −6.0
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#7Penn StatevsBoise State
75%
25%
31
14
✓
PSU −11.4
–
–

Wed, Jan 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
#3Texasvs#23Arizona State
81%
19%
39
31
✓
TEX −14.2
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#1Ohio Statevs#4Oregon
55%
45%
41
21
✓
OSU −2.6
–
–

Thu, Jan 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#2Notre Damevs#6Georgia
57%
43%
23
10
✓
ND −3.2
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Dukevs#8Ole Miss
14%
86%
20
52
✓
MISS −17.1
–
–

Fri, Jan 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
North TexasvsTexas State
28%
72%
28
30
✓
TXST −8.6
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Minnesotavs#25Virginia TechUpset
45%
55%
24
10
✗
VT −1.4
–
–

Sat, Jan 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
BuffalovsLiberty
33%
67%
26
7
✗
LIB −6.7
–
–

Thu, Jan 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#2Notre Damevs#7Penn State
59%
41%
27
24
✓
ND −4.1
–
–

Fri, Jan 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#1Ohio Statevs#3Texas
50%
50%
28
14
✓
OSU −0.5
–
–

Mon, Jan 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#1Ohio Statevs#2Notre Dame
50%
50%
34
23
✗
OSU −0.5
–
–