The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 2024

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 64 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 64

Wilder than 64% of weeks in the archive.

21 upsets against 16.3 expected

  • Biggest shockJames Madison over North Carolina16% chance · won 70-50
  • Runner-upBuffalo over Northern Illinois21% chance · won 23-20
  • Runner-upNavy over Memphis26% chance · won 56-44

Upsets

Thu, Sep 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
South Alabama@Appalachian State
37%
63%
48
14
✗
APP −5.6
–
–

Fri, Sep 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Stanford@Syracuse
43%
57%
26
24
✗
SYR −3.2
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
San Jose State@Washington State
37%
63%
52
54
✓
WSU −5.4
–
–

Sat, Sep 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
Florida@Mississippi State
70%
30%
45
28
✓
FLA −8.5
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Indiana
7.2%
93%
14
52
✓
IU −24.3
–
–
Final
Marshall@#4Ohio State
1.4%
99%
14
49
✓
OSU −36.5
–
–
Final
NC State@#11Clemson
7.8%
92%
35
59
✓
CLEM −23.6
–
–
Final
James Madison@North CarolinaUpset
16%
84%
70
50
✗
UNC −16.5
–
–
Final
Houston@Cincinnati
58%
42%
0
34
✗
HOU −3.1
–
–
Final
Kansas@West Virginia
52%
48%
28
32
✗
KU −0.9
–
–
Final
Tulane@Louisiana
61%
39%
41
33
✓
TULN −4.4
–
–
Final
Rice@Army
15%
85%
14
37
✓
ARMY −17.1
–
–
Final
Ohio@Kentucky
10%
90%
6
41
✓
UK −21.3
–
–
Final
Ball State@Central Michigan
60%
40%
34
37
✗
BALL −4.2
–
–
Final
Virginia@Coastal Carolina
47%
53%
43
24
✗
CCU −1.4
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Iowa State
19%
80%
7
52
✓
ISU −14.4
–
–
Final
Utah State@Temple
64%
36%
29
45
✗
USU −5.7
–
–

Afternoon 17 games

Final
Southern Miss@Jacksonville State
47%
53%
7
44
✓
JXST −1.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#23AuburnUpset
34%
66%
24
14
✗
AUB −6.9
–
–
Final
UCLA@#18LSU
22%
78%
17
34
✓
LSU −13.1
–
–
Final
#14USC@#9Michigan
41%
59%
24
27
✓
MICH −3.8
–
–
Final
Kent State@#5Penn State
0.1%
>99%
0
56
✓
PSU −51.6
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Virginia Tech
41%
59%
26
23
✗
VT −3.8
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@#6Notre Dame
3.8%
96%
3
28
✓
ND −29.6
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#20Louisville
41%
59%
19
31
✓
LOU −3.9
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Texas Tech
54%
46%
22
30
✗
ASU −1.7
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Northern IllinoisUpset
21%
79%
23
20
✗
NIU −13.2
–
–
Final
#25Memphis@NavyUpset
74%
26%
44
56
✗
MEM −10.8
–
–
Final
Duke@Middle Tennessee
89%
11%
45
17
✓
DUKE −20.2
–
–
Final
#21Utah@#19Oklahoma State
45%
55%
22
19
✗
OKST −2.2
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#13Missouri
8.1%
92%
27
30
✓
MIZ −23.3
–
–
Final
TCU@SMU
50%
50%
42
66
✓
SMU −0.3
–
–
Final
UTEP@Colorado State
24%
76%
17
27
✓
CSU −12.0
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Liberty
39%
61%
24
35
✓
LIB −4.8
–
–

Prime time 15 games

Final
Northwestern@Washington
25%
75%
5
24
✓
WASH −11.5
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@UConn
54%
46%
14
48
✗
FAU −1.7
–
–
Final
California@Florida State
42%
58%
9
14
✓
FSU −3.6
–
–
Final
#15Miami (FL)@USF
83%
17%
50
15
✓
MIA −15.8
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Louisiana Tech
61%
39%
23
20
✓
TLSA −4.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Sam Houston
23%
77%
11
31
✓
SHSU −12.3
–
–
Final
Toledo@Western Kentucky
64%
36%
21
26
✗
TOL −5.8
–
–
Final
Wyoming@North Texas
38%
62%
17
44
✓
UNT −5.2
–
–
Final
#8Tennessee@#12Oklahoma
49%
51%
25
15
✗
OU −0.5
–
–
Final
Akron@South Carolina
2.7%
97%
7
50
✓
SC −32.1
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@#16Texas A&M
12%
88%
20
26
✓
TA&M −19.6
–
–
Final
Iowa@Minnesota
51%
49%
31
14
✓
IOWA −0.2
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@#7Ole Miss
2.7%
97%
13
52
✓
MISS −31.9
–
–
Final
Fresno State@New Mexico
92%
7.6%
38
21
✓
FRES −23.6
–
–
Final
Purdue@Oregon State
42%
58%
21
38
✓
ORST −3.3
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
#17Kansas State@BYUUpset
72%
28%
9
38
✗
KSU −9.5
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Illinois@#24NebraskaUpset
33%
67%
31
24
✗
NEB −7.2
–
–

Sun, Sep 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#2Texas
0.5%
>99%
3
51
✓
TEX −42.2
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Boston College
33%
67%
19
23
✓
BC −7.5
–
–
Final
Baylor@Colorado
56%
44%
31
38
✗
BAY −2.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 21 · 12:00 PM ET Villanova at #22 Maryland Maryland −42.3 >99%
Sat, Sep 21 · 6:00 PM ET Monmouth vs FIU FIU −9.4 71%
Sat, Sep 21 · 3:30 PM ET Central Connecticut at UMass UMass −28.1 96%
Sat, Sep 21 · 3:30 PM ET Youngstown State at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh −31.2 97%
Sat, Sep 21 · 7:00 PM ET Florida A&M at Troy Troy −30.9 97%
Sat, Sep 21 · 9:45 PM ET Portland State at Boise State Boise State −39.2 99%
Sat, Sep 21 · 11:59 PM ET Northern Iowa at Hawaii Hawaii −17.3 85%
Sat, Sep 21 · 3:00 PM ET Eastern Washington at Nevada Nevada −14.3 80%
Sat, Sep 21 · 2:00 PM ET Saint Francis at Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan −22.5 91%
Sat, Sep 21 · 3:30 PM ET Houston Christian at UTSA UTSA −41.8 99%