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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 13 slate, 2024

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 65 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 48

Wilder than 48% of weeks in the archive.

23 upsets against 18.5 expected

  • Biggest shockGeorgia State over Texas State10% chance · won 52-44
  • Runner-upOklahoma over Alabama21% chance · won 24-3
  • Runner-upFlorida over Ole Miss27% chance · won 24-17

Upsets

Tue, Nov 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Western Michigan@Central Michigan
64%
36%
14
16
✗
WMU −6.2
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Miami (OH)
38%
62%
9
20
✓
M-OH −4.6
–
–

Wed, Nov 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Akron@Kent State
62%
38%
38
17
✓
AKR −5.4
–
–

Thu, Nov 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
NC State@Georgia Tech
22%
78%
29
30
✓
GT −12.0
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Buffalo@Eastern Michigan
40%
60%
37
20
✗
EMU −3.5
–
–
Final
Ohio@Toledo
33%
67%
24
7
✗
TOL −6.6
–
–

Fri, Nov 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Purdue@Michigan State
24%
76%
17
24
✓
MSU −10.9
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
UNLV@San Jose State
63%
37%
27
16
✓
UNLV −5.9
–
–

Sat, Nov 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 16 games

Final
#6Ole Miss@#24Florida
73%
27%
17
24
✗
MISS −10.0
–
–
Final
Illinois@Rutgers
47%
53%
38
31
✗
RUTG −0.5
–
–
Final
#13Indiana@#1Ohio State
19%
81%
15
38
✓
OSU −13.7
–
–
Final
#18Iowa@Maryland
70%
30%
29
13
✓
IOWA −8.9
–
–
Final
UConn@Syracuse
23%
77%
24
31
✓
SYR −11.4
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Boston College
51%
49%
21
41
✗
UNC −1.0
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#11Miami (FL)
5.7%
94%
14
42
✓
MIA −25.0
–
–
Final
#14SMU@Virginia
80%
20%
33
7
✓
SMU −13.8
–
–
Final
Sam Houston@Jacksonville State
36%
64%
11
21
✓
JXST −5.3
–
–
Final
UMass@#4Georgia
0.1%
>99%
21
59
✓
UGA −51.4
–
–
Final
UTEP@#10Tennessee
0.3%
>99%
0
56
✓
TENN −43.2
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Liberty
50%
50%
21
38
✗
WKU −0.6
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Ball State
74%
26%
38
13
✓
BGSU −10.9
–
–
Final
Rice@UAB
54%
46%
14
40
✗
RICE −2.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Middle Tennessee
33%
67%
36
21
✗
MTSU −6.7
–
–
Final
James Madison@Appalachian State
69%
31%
20
34
✗
JMU −8.5
–
–

Afternoon 22 games

Final
Arizona@TCU
25%
75%
28
49
✓
TCU −10.2
–
–
Final
FIU@Kennesaw State
62%
38%
26
27
✗
FIU −5.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Arkansas State
40%
60%
21
28
✓
ARST −3.5
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Southern Miss
88%
12%
35
14
✓
USA −19.4
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Florida Atlantic
48%
52%
39
27
✗
FAU −0.2
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#2Texas
6.1%
94%
14
31
✓
TEX −24.3
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Michigan
19%
81%
6
50
✓
MICH −13.8
–
–
Final
#7Penn State@Minnesota
77%
23%
26
25
✓
PSU −12.4
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Nebraska
45%
55%
25
44
✓
NEB −1.4
–
–
Final
Stanford@California
17%
83%
21
24
✓
CAL −14.6
–
–
Final
BYU@Arizona State
47%
53%
23
28
✓
ASU −0.6
–
–
Final
#20ColoradovsKansasUpset
54%
46%
21
37
✗
COLO −1.9
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Oklahoma State
50%
50%
56
48
✗
TTU −0.3
–
–
Final
UCF@West Virginia
44%
56%
21
31
✓
WVU −1.8
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Utah State
43%
57%
20
41
✓
USU −2.2
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Coastal Carolina
44%
56%
26
6
✗
CCU −1.8
–
–
Final
East Carolina@North Texas
42%
58%
40
28
✗
UNT −2.6
–
–
Final
Tulsa@USF
13%
87%
30
63
✓
USF −17.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Arkansas
6.1%
94%
14
35
✓
ARK −24.4
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@#21Louisville
29%
71%
9
37
✓
LOU −8.4
–
–
Final
#25Missouri@Mississippi State
75%
25%
39
20
✓
MIZ −11.3
–
–
Final
Troy@Louisiana
21%
78%
30
51
✓
UL −12.1
–
–

Prime time 7 games

Final
#15Texas A&M@AuburnUpset
59%
41%
41
43
✗
TA&M −4.2
–
–
Final
#3Alabama@OklahomaUpset
79%
21%
3
24
✗
ALA −13.4
–
–
Final
#19Iowa State@Utah
65%
35%
31
28
✓
ISU −6.5
–
–
Final
Marshall@Old Dominion
45%
55%
42
35
✗
ODU −1.5
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#17LSU
20%
80%
17
24
✓
LSU −12.8
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Duke
57%
43%
28
31
✗
VT −3.3
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Kansas State
23%
77%
15
41
✓
KSU −11.1
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
#16USC@UCLA
67%
33%
19
13
✓
USC −7.6
–
–
Final
Air Force@Nevada
43%
57%
22
19
✗
NEV −2.3
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Fresno State
34%
66%
22
28
✓
FRES −6.2
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Temple@UTSA
16%
84%
27
51
✓
UTSA −15.8
–
–

Sun, Nov 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
Washington State@Oregon State
68%
32%
38
41
✗
WSU −7.7
–
–
Final
Baylor@Houston
64%
36%
20
10
✓
BAY −6.2
–
–
Final
Armyvs#5Notre Dame
15%
85%
14
49
✓
ND −16.2
–
–
Final
#22Boise State@Wyoming
93%
6.9%
17
13
✓
BOIS −24.1
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Texas StateUpset
10%
90%
52
44
✗
TXST −19.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 23 · 4:00 PM ET Wofford at #12 South Carolina South Carolina −51.1 >99%
Sat, Nov 23 · 3:30 PM ET The Citadel at #9 Clemson Clemson −57.5 >99%
Sat, Nov 23 · 1:30 PM ET Charleston Southern at Florida State Florida State −30.7 97%