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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 2024

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 49 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 95

Wilder than 95% of weeks in the archive.

22 upsets against 14.8 expected

  • Biggest shockHawaii over Fresno State17% chance · won 21-20
  • Runner-upTexas Tech over Iowa State17% chance · won 23-22
  • Runner-upHouston over Kansas State20% chance · won 24-19

Upsets

Tue, Oct 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
New Mexico StatevsFIU
31%
69%
13
34
✓
FIU −7.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Texas State
38%
62%
23
17
✗
TXST −4.2
–
–

Wed, Oct 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Jacksonville State@Liberty
41%
59%
31
21
✗
LIB −3.3
–
–
Final
Kennesaw State@Western Kentucky
5.0%
95%
14
31
✓
WKU −26.0
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Louisiana Tech@Sam Houston
23%
77%
3
9
✓
SHSU −11.4
–
–

Thu, Oct 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Tulane@Charlotte
83%
17%
34
3
✓
TULN −15.7
–
–

Fri, Nov 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Georgia State@UConn
23%
77%
27
34
✓
CONN −11.4
–
–
Final
USF@Florida Atlantic
55%
45%
44
21
✓
USF −2.3
–
–

Sat, Nov 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
#8Ole Miss@Arkansas
72%
28%
63
31
✓
MISS −9.8
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Illinois
50%
50%
25
17
✗
MINN −0.3
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Purdue
60%
40%
26
20
✓
NU −4.3
–
–
Final
#1Ohio State@#7Penn State
52%
48%
20
13
✓
OSU −1.4
–
–
Final
Stanford@NC State
36%
64%
28
59
✓
NCSU −5.0
–
–
Final
Duke@#12Miami (FL)
16%
84%
31
53
✓
MIA −15.8
–
–
Final
#20Virginia Tech@SyracuseUpset
71%
29%
31
38
✗
VT −9.4
–
–
Final
Air Force@Army
4.2%
96%
3
20
✓
ARMY −27.3
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Akron
51%
49%
41
30
✓
BUF −0.8
–
–
Final
Toledo@Eastern Michigan
68%
32%
29
28
✓
TOL −7.9
–
–
Final
Memphis@UTSAUpset
75%
25%
36
44
✗
MEM −11.3
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Auburn
32%
68%
17
7
✗
AUB −7.1
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Appalachian State
56%
44%
20
28
✗
ODU −2.8
–
–
Final
Tulsa@UAB
38%
62%
21
59
✓
UAB −4.2
–
–

Afternoon 15 games

Final
#21Floridavs#3Georgia
18%
82%
20
34
✓
UGA −14.0
–
–
Final
#16Indiana@Michigan State
74%
26%
47
10
✓
IU −10.7
–
–
Final
#6Oregon@#23Michigan
71%
29%
38
17
✓
ORE −9.1
–
–
Final
UCLA@Nebraska
30%
70%
27
20
✗
NEB −7.8
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Florida State
48%
52%
35
11
✗
FSU −0.3
–
–
Final
#17Kansas State@HoustonUpset
80%
20%
19
24
✗
KSU −14.1
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#18Iowa StateUpset
17%
83%
23
22
✗
ISU −14.6
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Oklahoma State
44%
56%
42
21
✗
OKST −1.9
–
–
Final
Arizona@UCF
34%
66%
12
56
✓
UCF −6.0
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@UTEP
44%
56%
20
13
✗
UTEP −1.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Marshall
26%
74%
23
28
✓
MRSH −9.7
–
–
Final
Wyoming@New Mexico
43%
57%
49
45
✗
UNM −2.4
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@Troy
51%
49%
24
38
✗
CCU −1.0
–
–
Final
Navy@RiceUpset
80%
20%
10
24
✗
NAVY −13.9
–
–
Final
UMass@Mississippi State
6.8%
93%
20
45
✓
MSST −23.4
–
–

Prime time 7 games

Final
Hawaii@Fresno StateUpset
17%
83%
21
20
✗
FRES −15.1
–
–
Final
#11Texas A&M@#19South Carolina
53%
47%
20
44
✗
TA&M −1.6
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@#25Iowa
38%
62%
10
42
✓
IOWA −4.4
–
–
Final
#14USC@WashingtonUpset
62%
38%
21
26
✗
USC −5.5
–
–
Final
Louisville@#9ClemsonUpset
21%
79%
33
21
✗
CLEM −12.2
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@South Alabama
29%
71%
34
30
✗
USA −8.1
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#10Tennessee
14%
86%
18
28
✓
TENN −16.9
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
San Diego State@#24Boise State
5.8%
94%
24
56
✓
BOIS −24.8
–
–

Sun, Nov 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Pittsburgh@#15SMU
27%
73%
25
48
✓
SMU −9.2
–
–
Final
TCU@Baylor
41%
59%
34
37
✓
BAY −3.0
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Nevada
47%
53%
38
21
✗
NEV −0.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 2 · 12:00 PM ET Maine at Oklahoma Oklahoma −45.8 >99%