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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 2024

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 63 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 3

Wilder than 3% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 12.7 expected

  • Biggest shockGeorgia State over Vanderbilt27% chance · won 36-32
  • Runner-upIndiana over UCLA34% chance · won 42-13
  • Runner-upUNLV over Kansas35% chance · won 23-20

Upsets

Thu, Sep 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Arizona State@Texas State
70%
30%
31
28
✓
ASU −8.8
–
–

Fri, Sep 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
UNLVvsKansas
35%
65%
23
20
✗
KU −5.4
–
–

Sat, Sep 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
#3Alabama@Wisconsin
91%
8.6%
42
10
✓
ALA −21.7
–
–
Final
#16LSU@South Carolina
53%
47%
36
33
✓
LSU −1.8
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Illinois
5.4%
95%
9
30
✓
ILL −24.7
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@#6Michigan
2.5%
98%
18
28
✓
MICH −30.4
–
–
Final
Memphis@#23Florida StateUpset
41%
59%
20
12
✗
FSU −2.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@NC State
16%
84%
20
30
✓
NCSU −15.0
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Miami (OH)
43%
57%
27
16
✗
M-OH −2.2
–
–
Final
North Texas@Texas Tech
30%
70%
21
66
✓
TTU −7.5
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Tulsa
83%
17%
45
10
✓
OKST −15.1
–
–
Final
Boston College@#10Missouri
22%
78%
21
27
✓
MIZ −11.5
–
–
Final
UMass@Buffalo
40%
60%
3
34
✓
BUF −3.5
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@Temple
84%
16%
28
20
✓
CCU −16.1
–
–

Afternoon 17 games

Final
#15Texas A&M@Florida
56%
44%
33
20
✓
TA&M −2.9
–
–
Final
Tulane@#11Oklahoma
13%
87%
19
34
✓
OU −17.1
–
–
Final
Nevada@Minnesota
12%
88%
0
27
✓
MINN −17.8
–
–
Final
#14Oregon@Oregon State
75%
25%
49
14
✓
ORE −10.8
–
–
Final
Washington Statevs#19WashingtonUpset
36%
64%
24
19
✗
WASH −5.1
–
–
Final
#13Notre Dame@Purdue
77%
23%
66
7
✓
ND −11.7
–
–
Final
Ball State@#17Miami (FL)
6.1%
94%
0
62
✓
MIA −23.7
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Pittsburgh
55%
45%
34
38
✗
WVU −2.6
–
–
Final
Troy@Iowa
15%
85%
21
38
✓
IOWA −15.5
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@East Carolina
50%
50%
21
19
✗
APP −0.4
–
–
Final
UAB@Arkansas
12%
88%
27
37
✓
ARK −17.8
–
–
Final
#21Utah@Utah State
91%
9.0%
38
21
✓
UTAH −21.3
–
–
Final
UConn@Duke
9.7%
90%
21
26
✓
DUKE −19.7
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Old Dominion
80%
20%
37
17
✓
VT −13.3
–
–
Final
FIU@Florida Atlantic
35%
65%
20
38
✓
FAU −5.6
–
–
Final
UTEP@Liberty
9.0%
91%
10
28
✓
LIB −20.4
–
–
Final
#7Ole Miss@Wake Forest
91%
8.7%
40
6
✓
MISS −21.5
–
–

Prime time 16 games

Final
UTSA@#2Texas
0.8%
99%
7
56
✓
TEX −37.4
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Georgia State
73%
27%
32
36
✗
VAN −10.1
–
–
Final
Jacksonville State@Eastern Michigan
40%
60%
34
37
✓
EMU −3.6
–
–
Final
Kennesaw State@San Jose State
5.3%
95%
10
31
✓
SJSU −24.9
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Middle Tennessee
60%
40%
49
21
✓
WKU −4.4
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Sam Houston
44%
56%
13
31
✓
SHSU −1.6
–
–
Final
USF@Southern Miss
71%
29%
49
24
✓
USF −8.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico@#24Auburn
2.1%
98%
19
45
✓
AUB −31.4
–
–
Final
#1Georgia@Kentucky
92%
7.7%
13
12
✓
UGA −22.6
–
–
Final
Toledo@Mississippi State
37%
63%
41
17
✗
MSST −4.5
–
–
Final
Indiana@UCLA
34%
66%
42
13
✗
UCLA −5.7
–
–
Final
Air Force@Baylor
33%
67%
3
31
✓
BAY −6.3
–
–
Final
Colorado@Colorado State
67%
33%
28
9
✓
COLO −7.3
–
–
Final
UCF@TCU
45%
55%
35
34
✗
TCU −1.3
–
–
Final
Kent State@#9Tennessee
0.2%
>99%
0
71
✓
TENN −45.9
–
–
Final
BYU@Wyoming
84%
16%
34
14
✓
BYU −15.8
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
San Diego State@California
16%
84%
10
31
✓
CAL −15.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Fresno State
11%
89%
0
48
✓
FRES −18.5
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Arizona@#22Kansas State
34%
66%
7
31
✓
KSU −5.6
–
–

Sun, Sep 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
#25Maryland@Virginia
74%
26%
27
13
✓
MD −10.6
–
–
Final
Rice@Houston
24%
76%
7
33
✓
HOU −10.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 14 · 3:30 PM ET Prairie View A&M at Michigan State Michigan State −29.6 97%
Sat, Sep 14 · 7:30 PM ET Northern Iowa at #18 Nebraska Nebraska −38.6 99%
Sat, Sep 14 · 3:30 PM ET VMI at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −42.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 14 · 6:00 PM ET North Carolina Central at North Carolina North Carolina −37.3 99%
Sat, Sep 14 · 6:30 PM ET Bethune-Cookman at Western Michigan Western Michigan −32.6 98%
Sat, Sep 14 · 6:00 PM ET South Carolina State at Georgia Southern Georgia Southern −24.9 95%
Thu, Sep 12 · 7:30 PM ET Northwestern State at South Alabama South Alabama −37.5 99%
Sat, Sep 14 · 6:00 PM ET Colgate at Akron Akron −16.4 86%
Sat, Sep 14 · 3:30 PM ET Morgan State at Ohio Ohio −25.4 95%
Sat, Sep 14 · 6:00 PM ET Gardner-Webb at Charlotte Charlotte −20.1 91%
Sat, Sep 14 · 7:30 PM ET Eastern Illinois vs Northwestern Northwestern −40.4 >99%