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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 2024

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 49 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 77

Wilder than 77% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 13.9 expected

  • Biggest shockVanderbilt over Alabama3.2% chance · won 40-35
  • Runner-upHouston over TCU22% chance · won 30-19
  • Runner-upArkansas over Tennessee23% chance · won 19-14

Upsets

Thu, Oct 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Texas State@Troy
54%
46%
38
17
✓
TXST −1.8
–
–
Final
Sam Houston@UTEP
78%
22%
41
21
✓
SHSU −12.5
–
–

Fri, Oct 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 4 games

Final
Jacksonville State@Kennesaw State
69%
31%
63
24
✓
JXST −8.3
–
–
Final
Houston@TCUUpset
22%
78%
30
19
✗
TCU −12.9
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#6Oregon
8.3%
92%
10
31
✓
ORE −23.1
–
–
Final
Syracuse@UNLV
29%
71%
44
41
✗
UNLV −9.3
–
–

Sat, Oct 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
#16Missouri@#18Texas A&M
50%
50%
10
41
✓
TA&M −0.3
–
–
Final
Purdue@Wisconsin
26%
74%
6
52
✓
WIS −10.8
–
–
Final
UCLA@#5Penn State
6.6%
93%
11
27
✓
PSU −25.1
–
–
Final
UMass@Northern Illinois
11%
89%
20
34
✓
NIU −20.6
–
–
Final
Boston College@Virginia
63%
37%
14
24
✗
BC −5.3
–
–
Final
#17SMU@#20Louisville
50%
50%
34
27
✓
LOU −0.1
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@North Carolina
47%
53%
34
24
✗
UNC −1.2
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@NC State
39%
61%
34
30
✗
NCSU −4.9
–
–
Final
Navy@Air Force
76%
24%
34
7
✓
NAVY −11.8
–
–
Final
Army@Tulsa
87%
13%
49
7
✓
ARMY −18.3
–
–
Final
Tulane@UAB
83%
17%
71
20
✓
TULN −15.4
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Ball State
61%
39%
45
42
✓
WMU −4.6
–
–

Afternoon 14 games

Final
Auburn@#4Georgia
9.8%
90%
13
31
✓
UGA −21.5
–
–
Final
#8Ole Miss@#24South Carolina
67%
33%
27
3
✓
MISS −7.2
–
–
Final
#25IndianavsNorthwestern
78%
22%
41
24
✓
IU −12.5
–
–
Final
#22Iowa@#3Ohio State
14%
86%
7
35
✓
OSU −17.9
–
–
Final
Temple@UConn
17%
84%
20
29
✓
CONN −16.3
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Stanford
63%
37%
31
7
✓
VT −5.5
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Marshall
44%
56%
37
52
✓
MRSH −2.7
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Toledo
26%
74%
20
30
✓
TOL −10.9
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Akron
86%
14%
27
20
✓
BGSU −18.1
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Charlotte
67%
33%
24
55
✗
ECU −7.3
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Nebraska
38%
62%
7
14
✓
NEB −5.3
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Oklahoma State
42%
58%
38
14
✗
OKST −3.3
–
–
Final
#1Alabama@VanderbiltUpset
97%
3.2%
35
40
✗
ALA −30.7
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Oregon State
18%
82%
31
39
✓
ORST −15.4
–
–

Prime time 12 games

Final
#10Clemson@Florida State
78%
22%
29
13
✓
CLEM −12.8
–
–
Final
Utah State@Boise State
4.9%
95%
30
62
✓
BOIS −27.6
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Coastal Carolina
38%
62%
37
45
✓
CCU −5.2
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Arkansas State
59%
41%
16
18
✗
USA −3.7
–
–
Final
James Madison@Louisiana-Monroe
74%
26%
19
21
✗
JMU −10.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Southern Miss
82%
18%
23
13
✓
UL −15.4
–
–
Final
#7Tennessee@ArkansasUpset
77%
23%
14
19
✗
TENN −12.2
–
–
Final
#12Michigan@WashingtonUpset
62%
38%
17
27
✗
MICH −5.1
–
–
Final
#11USC@MinnesotaUpset
73%
27%
17
24
✗
USC −10.1
–
–
Final
Baylor@#21Iowa State
24%
76%
21
43
✓
ISU −12.0
–
–
Final
Nevada@San Jose State
17%
83%
31
35
✓
SJSU −16.0
–
–
Final
UCF@Florida
37%
63%
13
24
✓
FLA −5.5
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
#14Miami (FL)@California
71%
29%
39
38
✓
MIA −9.0
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Arizona
42%
58%
28
22
✗
ARIZ −3.5
–
–

Sun, Oct 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Duke@Georgia Tech
43%
57%
14
24
✓
GT −2.9
–
–
Final
Kansas@Arizona State
50%
50%
31
35
✗
ASU −0.1
–
–
Final
Hawaii@San Diego State
41%
59%
24
27
✓
SDSU −4.0
–
–