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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 2024

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 18

Wilder than 18% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 13.6 expected

  • Biggest shockVirginia over Pittsburgh20% chance · won 24-19
  • Runner-upAir Force over Fresno State26% chance · won 36-28
  • Runner-upNew Mexico over San Diego State27% chance · won 21-16

Upsets

Tue, Nov 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Bowling Green@Central Michigan
79%
21%
23
13
✓
BGSU −13.2
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Ball State
72%
28%
27
21
✓
M-OH −9.9
–
–

Thu, Nov 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Appalachian State@Coastal Carolina
43%
57%
24
38
✓
CCU −2.5
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@East Carolina
28%
72%
14
49
✓
ECU −8.8
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Ohio@Kent State
81%
19%
41
0
✓
OHIO −14.5
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Western Michigan
48%
52%
42
28
✗
WMU −0.4
–
–

Fri, Nov 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
California@Wake Forest
72%
28%
46
36
✓
CAL −9.7
–
–
Final
#18Iowa@UCLAUpset
66%
34%
17
20
✗
IOWA −7.0
–
–
Final
Rice@Memphis
15%
85%
20
27
✓
MEM −16.0
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
New Mexico@San Diego State
27%
73%
21
16
✗
SDSU −9.5
–
–

Sat, Nov 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 10 games

Final
#23Florida@#4Texas
14%
86%
17
49
✓
TEX −17.1
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Rutgers
63%
37%
19
26
✗
MINN −5.9
–
–
Final
Purdue@#1Ohio State
0.7%
99%
0
45
✓
OSU −39.2
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Boston College
41%
59%
31
37
✓
BC −3.0
–
–
Final
#10Miami (FL)@Georgia TechUpset
72%
28%
23
28
✗
MIA −9.8
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Cincinnati
43%
57%
31
24
✗
CIN −2.2
–
–
Final
Texas State@Louisiana-Monroe
64%
36%
38
17
✓
TXST −6.0
–
–
Final
Navy@USF
60%
40%
28
7
✓
NAVY −4.5
–
–
Final
Liberty@Middle Tennessee
73%
27%
37
17
✓
LIB −10.3
–
–
Final
UConn@UAB
62%
38%
31
23
✓
CONN −5.3
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
Marshall@Southern Miss
81%
19%
37
3
✓
MRSH −14.6
–
–
Final
#3Georgia@#7Ole Miss
49%
51%
10
28
✓
UGA −0.1
–
–
Final
Michigan@#12Indiana
26%
74%
15
20
✓
IU −10.0
–
–
Final
Army@North Texas
75%
25%
14
3
✓
ARMY −11.4
–
–
Final
#11Clemson@#25Virginia Tech
59%
41%
24
14
✓
CLEM −4.2
–
–
Final
Duke@NC State
56%
44%
29
19
✓
DUKE −3.0
–
–
Final
#19Iowa StatevsKansasUpset
62%
38%
36
45
✗
ISU −5.2
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Oregon State
41%
59%
24
13
✗
ORST −3.0
–
–
Final
Georgia State@James Madison
12%
88%
7
38
✓
JMU −18.0
–
–
Final
Colorado@Texas Tech
56%
44%
41
27
✓
COLO −3.1
–
–
Final
Kennesaw State@UTEP
40%
60%
35
43
✓
UTEP −3.4
–
–
Final
Temple@Tulane
2.8%
97%
6
52
✓
TULN −30.3
–
–
Final
#15South Carolina@Vanderbilt
67%
33%
28
7
✓
SC −7.5
–
–
Final
Jacksonville State@Louisiana Tech
70%
30%
44
37
✓
JXST −8.7
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana
21%
79%
19
55
✓
UL −12.6
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@New Mexico State
91%
9.3%
41
28
✓
WKU −21.6
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
#2Alabama@#13LSU
66%
34%
42
13
✓
ALA −7.2
–
–
Final
Florida State@#6Notre Dame
5.0%
95%
3
52
✓
ND −26.1
–
–
Final
Oklahoma@Missouri
43%
57%
23
30
✓
MIZ −2.5
–
–
Final
Washington@#8Penn State
15%
85%
6
35
✓
PSU −16.4
–
–
Final
Virginia@PittsburghUpset
20%
80%
24
19
✗
PITT −12.9
–
–
Final
Nevada@#21Boise State
4.2%
96%
21
28
✓
BOIS −27.4
–
–
Final
UNLV@Hawaii
83%
17%
29
27
✓
UNLV −15.6
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Air Force
74%
26%
28
36
✗
FRES −10.9
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
#24BYU@Utah
62%
38%
22
21
✓
BYU −5.2
–
–
Final
Utah State@Washington State
5.3%
95%
28
49
✓
WSU −25.6
–
–

Sun, Nov 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
Mississippi State@#9Tennessee
5.3%
95%
14
33
✓
TENN −25.5
–
–
Final
Maryland@#5Oregon
5.4%
95%
18
39
✓
ORE −25.3
–
–
Final
UCF@Arizona State
40%
60%
31
35
✓
ASU −3.6
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@TCU
33%
67%
13
38
✓
TCU −6.6
–
–