The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 14 slate, 2024

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 67 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 43

Wilder than 43% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 19.4 expected

  • Biggest shockWyoming over Washington State10.0% chance · won 15-14
  • Runner-upMichigan over Ohio State11% chance · won 13-10
  • Runner-upMemphis over Tulane23% chance · won 34-24

Upsets

Wed, Nov 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Toledo@AkronUpset
76%
24%
14
21
✗
TOL −11.5
–
–
Final
Kent State@Buffalo
10%
90%
7
43
✓
BUF −19.6
–
–

Thu, Nov 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Memphis@TulaneUpset
23%
77%
34
24
✗
TULN −11.5
–
–

Fri, Nov 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 6 games

Final
Minnesota@Wisconsin
47%
53%
24
7
✗
WIS −0.5
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Colorado
17%
83%
0
52
✓
COLO −14.8
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Boise State
10%
90%
18
34
✓
BOIS −20.0
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Bowling Green
37%
63%
28
12
✗
BGSU −4.6
–
–
Final
Ball State@Ohio
16%
84%
21
42
✓
OHIO −15.7
–
–
Final
Navy@East Carolina
59%
41%
34
20
✓
NAVY −4.1
–
–

Afternoon 5 games

Final
Mississippi State@#7Ole Miss
2.9%
97%
14
26
✓
MISS −30.1
–
–
Final
Liberty@Sam Houston
50%
50%
18
20
✓
LIB −0.4
–
–
Final
Utah State@Colorado State
27%
73%
37
42
✓
CSU −9.5
–
–
Final
Texas State@South Alabama
43%
57%
45
38
✗
USA −2.2
–
–
Final
Stanford@San Jose State
36%
64%
31
34
✓
SJSU −5.1
–
–

Prime time 3 games

Final
Georgia Tech@#4Georgia
9.7%
90%
42
44
✓
UGA −20.4
–
–
Final
Nebraska@#19Iowa
29%
71%
10
13
✓
IOWA −8.4
–
–
Final
Utah@UCF
37%
63%
28
14
✗
UCF −4.8
–
–

Sat, Nov 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 17 games

Final
#18Louisville@Kentucky
60%
40%
41
14
✓
LOU −4.4
–
–
Final
#14South Carolina@#12Clemson
39%
61%
17
14
✗
CLEM −4.1
–
–
Final
#9Tennessee@Vanderbilt
73%
27%
36
23
✓
TENN −10.2
–
–
Final
IllinoisvsNorthwestern
71%
29%
38
28
✓
ILL −9.1
–
–
Final
Michigan@#1Ohio StateUpset
11%
89%
13
10
✗
OSU −19.6
–
–
Final
UConn@UMass
80%
20%
47
42
✓
CONN −13.8
–
–
Final
Duke@Wake Forest
66%
34%
23
17
✓
DUKE −7.2
–
–
Final
#25Kansas@BaylorUpset
53%
47%
17
45
✗
KU −1.8
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Texas Tech
46%
54%
15
52
✓
TTU −1.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Louisiana-Monroe
74%
26%
37
23
✓
UL −10.9
–
–
Final
UTSA@Army
16%
84%
24
29
✓
ARMY −15.5
–
–
Final
North Texas@Temple
67%
33%
24
17
✓
UNT −7.5
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Western Michigan
28%
72%
18
26
✓
WMU −8.6
–
–
Final
Middle TennesseevsFIU
31%
69%
24
35
✓
FIU −7.3
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@Georgia State
50%
50%
48
27
✗
CCU −0.4
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Troy
12%
88%
20
52
✓
TROY −18.1
–
–
Final
USF@Rice
59%
41%
28
35
✗
USF −4.1
–
–

Afternoon 21 games

Final
Pittsburgh@Boston College
42%
58%
23
34
✓
BC −2.9
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Arkansas State
57%
42%
40
32
✓
ODU −3.5
–
–
Final
Auburn@#5Alabama
12%
88%
14
28
✓
ALA −18.7
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#24Missouri
28%
72%
21
28
✓
MIZ −8.7
–
–
Final
Maryland@#8Penn State
4.9%
95%
7
44
✓
PSU −26.2
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Michigan State
52%
48%
41
14
✓
RUTG −1.1
–
–
Final
Fresno State@UCLA
27%
73%
13
20
✓
UCLA −9.5
–
–
Final
#3Notre Dame@#16USC
69%
31%
49
35
✓
ND −8.4
–
–
Final
California@#11SMU
16%
84%
6
38
✓
SMU −15.6
–
–
Final
#10Miami (FL)@SyracuseUpset
76%
24%
38
42
✗
MIA −11.6
–
–
Final
NC State@North Carolina
27%
73%
35
30
✗
UNC −9.1
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Arizona
66%
34%
49
7
✓
ASU −7.1
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Northern Illinois
14%
86%
16
24
✓
NIU −17.2
–
–
Final
UAB@Charlotte
43%
57%
27
29
✓
CLT −2.3
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Tulsa
48%
52%
63
16
✗
TLSA −0.3
–
–
Final
Jacksonville State@Western Kentucky
40%
60%
17
19
✓
WKU −3.6
–
–
Final
Kennesaw State@Louisiana Tech
23%
77%
0
33
✓
LT −11.1
–
–
Final
UTEP@New Mexico State
42%
58%
42
35
✗
NMSU −2.6
–
–
Final
TCU@Cincinnati
55%
45%
20
13
✓
TCU −2.6
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Georgia Southern
36%
64%
20
29
✓
GASO −5.3
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Washington StateUpset
10.0%
90%
15
14
✗
WSU −20.1
–
–

Prime time 6 games

Final
#2Texas@#15Texas A&M
70%
30%
17
7
✓
TEX −8.7
–
–
Final
Washington@#6Oregon
11%
89%
21
49
✓
ORE −19.0
–
–
Final
#23Kansas State@#22Iowa State
41%
59%
21
29
✓
ISU −3.2
–
–
Final
Virginia@Virginia Tech
16%
84%
17
37
✓
VT −15.6
–
–
Final
Nevada@UNLV
8.8%
91%
14
38
✓
UNLV −21.2
–
–
Final
Marshall@James Madison
35%
65%
35
33
✗
JMU −5.6
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Houston@BYU
14%
86%
18
30
✓
BYU −16.7
–
–
Final
Air Force@San Diego State
52%
48%
31
20
✓
AF −1.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Hawaii
40%
60%
30
38
✓
HAW −3.8
–
–

Sun, Dec 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#21Florida@Florida State
72%
28%
31
11
✓
FLA −10.0
–
–
Final
#20Oklahoma@#17LSU
38%
62%
17
37
✓
LSU −4.3
–
–
Final
Purdue@#13Indiana
3.6%
96%
0
66
✓
IU −28.5
–
–