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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 2024

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 78 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 1

Chaos 94

Wilder than 94% of weeks in the archive.

19 upsets against 13.5 expected

  • Biggest shockNorthern Illinois over Notre Dame2.0% chance · won 16-14
  • Runner-upSouthern Utah over UTEP12% chance · won 27-24
  • Runner-upMichigan State over Maryland18% chance · won 27-24

Upsets

Fri, Sep 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
BYU@SMUUpset
22%
78%
18
15
✗
SMU −11.3
–
–
Final
DukevsNorthwestern
54%
46%
26
20
✓
DUKE −1.9
–
–

Sat, Sep 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 9 games

Final
Arkansas@Oklahoma State
41%
59%
31
39
✓
OKST −2.9
–
–
Final
#4Texas@#6Michigan
51%
49%
31
12
✓
TEX −1.0
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@#3Penn State
1.2%
99%
27
34
✓
PSU −35.0
–
–
Final
Akron@Rutgers
7.0%
93%
17
49
✓
RUTG −22.5
–
–
Final
#23Georgia Tech@SyracuseUpset
69%
31%
28
31
✗
GT −8.0
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Cincinnati
69%
31%
28
27
✓
PITT −8.0
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Tulane
64%
36%
34
27
✓
KSU −5.8
–
–
Final
Troy@Memphis
21%
79%
17
38
✓
MEM −12.2
–
–
Final
Army@Florida Atlantic
71%
29%
24
7
✓
ARMY −8.9
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
California@#18AuburnUpset
20%
80%
21
14
✗
AUB −12.3
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#25KentuckyUpset
28%
72%
31
6
✗
UK −8.3
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Iowa
38%
62%
20
19
✗
IOWA −4.0
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#20MarylandUpset
18%
82%
27
24
✗
MD −14.0
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@#21Washington
4.2%
96%
9
30
✓
WASH −26.6
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@#7Notre DameUpset
2.0%
98%
16
14
✗
ND −31.8
–
–
Final
UMass@Toledo
8.6%
91%
23
38
✓
TOL −20.8
–
–
Final
Jacksonville State@Louisville
5.8%
94%
14
49
✓
LOU −24.1
–
–
Final
Charlotte@North Carolina
6.5%
94%
20
38
✓
UNC −23.2
–
–
Final
Baylor@Utah
28%
72%
12
23
✓
UTAH −8.7
–
–
Final
Temple@Navy
17%
83%
11
38
✓
NAVY −14.3
–
–
Final
UTSA@Texas State
74%
26%
10
49
✗
UTSA −10.5
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@#9Ole Miss
1.6%
98%
3
52
✓
MISS −33.1
–
–
Final
Marshall@Virginia Tech
18%
82%
14
31
✓
VT −13.6
–
–
Final
Central MichiganvsFIU
73%
27%
16
52
✗
CMU −9.9
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Old Dominion
50%
50%
20
14
✗
ECU −0.4
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Ohio
61%
39%
20
27
✗
USA −4.8
–
–
Final
Sam Houston@UCF
14%
86%
14
45
✓
UCF −16.5
–
–

Prime time 13 games

Final
USF@#2Alabama
1.0%
99%
16
42
✓
ALA −36.0
–
–
Final
Buffalo@#11Missouri
0.9%
99%
0
38
✓
MIZ −36.8
–
–
Final
#19Kansas@IllinoisUpset
69%
31%
17
23
✗
KU −8.1
–
–
Final
Virginia@Wake Forest
45%
55%
31
30
✗
WAKE −1.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Kennesaw State
67%
33%
34
10
✓
UL −7.1
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Air Force
59%
41%
17
7
✓
SJSU −3.9
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Nevada
46%
54%
20
17
✗
NEV −0.9
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Arkansas State
49%
51%
24
28
✓
TLSA −0.1
–
–
Final
UAB@Louisiana-Monroe
72%
28%
6
32
✗
UAB −9.3
–
–
Final
#16TennesseevsNC State
80%
20%
51
10
✓
TENN −13.5
–
–
Final
Colorado@Nebraska
25%
75%
10
28
✓
NEB −10.1
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@#5Ohio State
1.3%
99%
0
56
✓
OSU −34.4
–
–
Final
Houston@#8Oklahoma
4.2%
96%
12
16
✓
OU −26.6
–
–

Late night 6 games

Final
Boise State@#10Oregon
15%
85%
34
37
✓
ORE −15.8
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Washington State
41%
59%
16
37
✓
WSU −2.8
–
–
Final
Liberty@New Mexico State
80%
20%
30
24
✓
LIB −13.7
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Arizona State
34%
66%
23
30
✓
ASU −6.0
–
–
Final
Oregon State@San Diego State
61%
39%
21
0
✓
ORST −4.7
–
–
Final
Utah State@#15USC
4.3%
96%
0
48
✓
USC −26.4
–
–

Sun, Sep 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Appalachian State@#12Clemson
13%
87%
20
66
✓
CLEM −17.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:00 PM ET Samford at Florida Florida −35.8 99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 2:00 PM ET Tennessee Tech at #1 Georgia Georgia −76.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:30 PM ET Nicholls at #14 LSU LSU −52.2 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 12:45 PM ET McNeese at #13 Texas A&M Texas A&M −50.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:30 PM ET Alcorn State at Vanderbilt Vanderbilt −40.5 >99%
Fri, Sep 6 · 7:00 PM ET Western Illinois at Indiana Indiana −43.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 12:00 PM ET Rhode Island at Minnesota Minnesota −31.9 98%
Sat, Sep 7 · 3:30 PM ET South Dakota at Wisconsin Wisconsin −36.8 99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 6:00 PM ET UAlbany at West Virginia West Virginia −39.2 99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:00 PM ET William & Mary at Coastal Carolina Coastal Carolina −27.6 96%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:00 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at Western Kentucky Western Kentucky −31.1 98%
Sat, Sep 7 · 3:00 PM ET Utah Tech at UNLV UNLV −31.2 98%
Sat, Sep 7 · 9:00 PM ET Southern Utah at UTEP UTEP −17.5 88%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:00 PM ET Chattanooga at Georgia State Georgia State −29.6 97%
Sat, Sep 7 · 2:00 PM ET Missouri State at Ball State Missouri State −3.5 58%
Sat, Sep 7 · 3:30 PM ET Duquesne at Boston College Boston College −49.2 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 6:00 PM ET Florida A&M at #17 Miami (FL) Miami (FL) −44.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:00 PM ET Cal Poly at Stanford Stanford −37.1 99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 10:00 PM ET Northern Arizona at #22 Arizona Arizona −40.8 >99%
Sun, Sep 8 · TBD Long Island University at TCU TCU −45.2 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 12:00 PM ET Merrimack at UConn UConn −15.3 85%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:00 PM ET Northern Colorado at Colorado State Colorado State −23.9 94%
Sat, Sep 7 · 10:00 PM ET Sacramento State at Fresno State Fresno State −6.5 68%
Sat, Sep 7 · 3:30 PM ET Idaho at Wyoming Wyoming −8.2 71%
Sat, Sep 7 · 6:00 PM ET Gardner-Webb at James Madison James Madison −27.1 96%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:00 PM ET SE Louisiana at Southern Miss Southern Miss −24.1 94%
Sat, Sep 7 · 2:30 PM ET Saint Francis at Kent State Kent State −11.7 78%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:30 PM ET Stephen F. Austin at North Texas North Texas −30.6 98%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:00 PM ET Texas Southern at Rice Rice −24.3 94%