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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 2024

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 65

Wilder than 65% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 13.3 expected

  • Biggest shockNew Mexico over Washington State12% chance · won 38-35
  • Runner-upLouisiana Tech over Western Kentucky13% chance · won 12-7
  • Runner-upStanford over Louisville13% chance · won 38-35

Upsets

Wed, Nov 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Ball State@Buffalo
42%
58%
48
51
✓
BUF −2.8
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Bowling Green
27%
73%
13
31
✓
BGSU −9.4
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Toledo
12%
88%
10
37
✓
TOL −18.0
–
–

Thu, Nov 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
East Carolina@Tulsa
74%
26%
38
31
✓
ECU −10.8
–
–

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Kent State@Miami (OH)
3.5%
96%
7
34
✓
M-OH −28.7
–
–
Final
Akron@Northern Illinois
11%
89%
16
29
✓
NIU −19.3
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Ohio
28%
72%
10
35
✓
OHIO −8.7
–
–

Fri, Nov 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
Wyoming@Colorado State
22%
78%
10
24
✓
CSU −11.8
–
–
Final
North Texas@UTSA
45%
55%
27
48
✓
UTSA −1.3
–
–
Final
UCLA@Washington
36%
64%
19
31
✓
WASH −5.3
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Houston@Arizona
46%
54%
3
27
✓
ARIZ −1.2
–
–

Sat, Nov 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
#3Texas@Arkansas
86%
14%
20
10
✓
TEX −18.1
–
–
Final
#2Ohio StatevsNorthwestern
96%
3.8%
31
7
✓
OSU −28.8
–
–
Final
Liberty@UMass
83%
17%
35
34
✓
LIB −15.7
–
–
Final
#10Clemson@Pittsburgh
72%
28%
24
20
✓
CLEM −9.5
–
–
Final
Utah@Colorado
27%
73%
24
49
✓
COLO −9.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Western KentuckyUpset
13%
87%
12
7
✗
WKU −17.6
–
–
Final
Tulane@Navy
58%
42%
35
0
✓
TULN −3.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Auburn
8.6%
91%
14
48
✓
AUB −21.5
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@Marshall
32%
68%
19
31
✓
MRSH −7.1
–
–
Final
FIU@Jacksonville State
19%
81%
31
34
✓
JXST −13.5
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Temple
46%
54%
15
18
✓
TEM −1.0
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Illinois
30%
70%
16
38
✓
ILL −7.7
–
–

Afternoon 17 games

Final
Syracuse@California
29%
71%
33
25
✗
CAL −8.4
–
–
Final
Sam Houston@Kennesaw State
79%
21%
23
17
✓
SHSU −13.3
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Utah State
59%
41%
10
55
✗
HAW −4.1
–
–
Final
#15LSU@FloridaUpset
55%
45%
16
27
✗
LSU −2.5
–
–
Final
#8Penn State@Purdue
96%
3.5%
49
10
✓
PSU −29.3
–
–
Final
Virginia@#4Notre Dame
3.4%
97%
14
35
✓
ND −28.9
–
–
Final
#18Louisville@StanfordUpset
87%
13%
35
38
✗
LOU −18.3
–
–
Final
Boston College@#14SMU
14%
86%
28
38
✓
SMU −16.9
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Air Force
64%
36%
0
28
✗
ORST −6.3
–
–
Final
USF@Charlotte
53%
47%
59
24
✓
USF −1.7
–
–
Final
Nebraska@#17USC
24%
76%
20
28
✓
USC −10.7
–
–
Final
Baylor@West Virginia
39%
61%
49
35
✗
WVU −4.1
–
–
Final
Troy@Georgia Southern
31%
69%
28
20
✗
GASO −7.5
–
–
Final
James Madison@Old Dominion
60%
40%
35
32
✓
JMU −4.5
–
–
Final
#24Missouri@#12South Carolina
27%
73%
30
34
✓
SC −9.2
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Georgia State
45%
55%
27
20
✗
GAST −1.4
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Maryland
40%
60%
31
17
✗
MD −3.3
–
–

Prime time 7 games

Final
#9Tennessee@#6Georgia
28%
72%
17
31
✓
UGA −8.7
–
–
Final
#7Oregon@Wisconsin
81%
19%
16
13
✓
ORE −14.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@#16Texas A&M
0.3%
>99%
3
38
✓
TA&M −43.8
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@North Carolina
17%
84%
24
31
✓
UNC −15.1
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#21Iowa State
24%
76%
17
34
✓
ISU −11.0
–
–
Final
UAB@Memphis
11%
89%
18
53
✓
MEM −19.1
–
–
Final
Washington State@New MexicoUpset
88%
12%
35
38
✗
WSU −19.0
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Kansas@#22BYUUpset
38%
62%
17
13
✗
BYU −4.5
–
–
Final
San Diego State@UNLV
8.7%
91%
20
41
✓
UNLV −21.3
–
–

Sun, Nov 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
Arizona State@#20Kansas StateUpset
28%
72%
24
14
✗
KSU −8.6
–
–
Final
#23Boise State@San Jose State
72%
28%
42
21
✓
BOIS −10.0
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Louisiana
34%
66%
24
22
✗
UL −6.0
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Texas State
5.0%
95%
3
58
✓
TXST −25.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 16 · 1:30 PM ET Murray State at Kentucky Kentucky −47.3 >99%
Sat, Nov 16 · 2:00 PM ET Mercer at #1 Alabama Alabama −65.6 >99%