Week 5 slate, 2024

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

No games match.

Thu, Sep 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final

Army@Temple

86%
14%

42
14

✓

ARMY −18.1

–

–

Fri, Sep 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final

Virginia Tech@#12Miami (FL)

21%
79%

34
38

✓

MIA −13.2

–

–

Sat, Sep 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final

Kentucky@#6Ole MissUpset

19%
81%

20
17

✗

MISS −14.9

–

–

Final

Maryland@Indiana

45%
55%

28
42

✓

IU −2.1

–

–

Final

Minnesota@#10Michigan

15%
85%

24
27

✓

MICH −17.1

–

–

Final

Nebraska@Purdue

74%
26%

28
10

✓

NEB −10.4

–

–

Final

Buffalo@UConn

31%
69%

3
47

✓

CONN −8.5

–

–

Final

Western Kentucky@Boston College

21%
79%

20
21

✓

BC −13.6

–

–

Final

Northern Illinois@NC State

42%
58%

17
24

✓

NCSU −3.3

–

–

Final

BYU@Baylor

57%
43%

34
28

✓

BYU −2.9

–

–

Final

#23Oklahoma State@Kansas StateUpset

51%
49%

20
42

✗

OKST −0.3

–

–

Final

Navy@UAB

74%
26%

41
18

✓

NAVY −10.4

–

–

Final

USF@Tulane

31%
69%

10
45

✓

TULN −8.2

–

–

Final

Ball State@James Madison

18%
82%

7
63

✓

JMU −15.4

–

–

Afternoon 20 games

Final

Texas StatevsSam Houston

60%
40%

39
40

✗

TXST −4.0

–

–

Final

Arkansasvs#16Texas A&M

34%
66%

17
21

✓

TA&M −7.0

–

–

Final

#14Oklahoma@Auburn

67%
33%

27
21

✓

OU −7.0

–

–

Final

Wisconsin@#13USC

18%
82%

21
38

✓

USC −15.1

–

–

Final

#18Louisville@#8Notre Dame

27%
73%

24
31

✓

ND −10.4

–

–

Final

UMass@Miami (OH)

9.1%
91%

20
23

✓

M-OH −22.2

–

–

Final

Louisiana@Wake Forest

47%
53%

41
38

✗

WAKE −1.5

–

–

Final

TCUvsKansas

46%
54%

38
27

✗

KU −1.8

–

–

Final

Colorado@UCF

29%
72%

48
21

✗

UCF −9.5

–

–

Final

Fresno State@UNLV

44%
56%

14
59

✓

UNLV −2.8

–

–

Final

San Diego State@Central Michigan

64%
36%

21
22

✗

SDSU −5.6

–

–

Final

Georgia Southern@Georgia State

48%
52%

38
21

✗

GAST −1.1

–

–

Final

Western Michigan@Marshall

40%
60%

20
27

✓

MRSH −4.3

–

–

Final

Akron@Ohio

25%
75%

10
30

✓

OHIO −11.1

–

–

Final

Eastern Michigan@Kent State

75%
25%

52
33

✓

EMU −10.9

–

–

Final

North Carolina@Duke

41%
59%

20
21

✓

DUKE −3.8

–

–

Final

UTSA@East Carolina

46%
54%

20
30

✓

ECU −1.9

–

–

Final

Mississippi State@#2Texas

1.3%
99%

13
35

✓

TEX −37.1

–

–

Final

Old Dominion@Bowling Green

26%
74%

30
27

✗

BGSU −11.0

–

–

Final

Louisiana TechvsFIU

56%
44%

10
17

✗

LT −2.3

–

–

Prime time 10 games

Final

Stanford@#11Clemson

11%
89%

14
40

✓

CLEM −20.1

–

–

Final

#22Iowa State@Houston

77%
23%

20
0

✓

ISU −11.9

–

–

Final

Louisiana-Monroe@Troy

37%
63%

13
9

✗

TROY −5.6

–

–

Final

Charlotte@Rice

38%
62%

21
20

✗

RICE −5.0

–

–

Final

Tulsa@North Texas

40%
60%

20
52

✓

UNT −4.5

–

–

Final

#3Georgia@#1Alabama

36%
64%

34
41

✓

ALA −6.3

–

–

Final

Illinois@#5Penn State

12%
88%

7
21

✓

PSU −19.5

–

–

Final

#4Ohio State@Michigan State

91%
8.6%

38
7

✓

OSU −22.6

–

–

Final

Middle Tennessee@Memphis

4.5%
96%

7
24

✓

MEM −28.2

–

–

Final

South Alabama@#17LSU

13%
87%

10
42

✓

LSU −18.9

–

–

Late night 3 games

Final

Washington State@Boise State

50%
50%

24
45

✗

PK

–

–

Final

Arizona@#25UtahUpset

27%
73%

23
10

✗

UTAH −10.5

–

–

Final

#9Oregon@UCLA

85%
15%

34
13

✓

ORE −17.2

–

–

Time TBD 1 game

Final

#21Washington@RutgersUpset

59%
41%

18
21

✗

WASH −3.6

–

–

Sun, Sep 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final

Florida State@#19SMU

37%
63%

16
42

✓

SMU −5.6

–

–

Final

Cincinnati@Texas Tech

40%
60%

41
44

✓

TTU −4.2

–

–

Final

New Mexico@New Mexico State

47%
53%

50
40

✗

NMSU −1.5

–

–

Final

Air Force@Wyoming

72%
28%

19
31

✗

AF −9.7

–

–

Against FCS opponents

When	Game	Model	Win
Sat, Sep 28 · 12:00 PM ET	Holy Cross at Syracuse	Syracuse −25.6	94%
Sat, Sep 28 · 6:00 PM ET	UT Martin at Kennesaw State	Kennesaw State −14.2	80%
Sat, Sep 28 · 6:00 PM ET	Wagner at Florida Atlantic	Florida Atlantic −25.4	94%