The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 2024

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 57 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 8

Wilder than 8% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 16.4 expected

  • Biggest shockKennesaw State over Liberty11% chance · won 27-24
  • Runner-upBall State over Northern Illinois27% chance · won 25-23
  • Runner-upBowling Green over Toledo34% chance · won 41-26

Upsets

Tue, Oct 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Sam HoustonvsFIU
71%
29%
10
7
✓
SHSU −9.5
–
–

Wed, Oct 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Liberty@Kennesaw StateUpset
89%
11%
24
27
✗
LIB −20.3
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Jacksonville State
16%
84%
20
42
✓
JXST −15.4
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
UTEP@Louisiana Tech
29%
72%
10
14
✓
LT −8.6
–
–

Thu, Oct 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Georgia Southern@Old Dominion
50%
50%
19
47
✗
GASO −0.6
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Pittsburgh
34%
66%
13
41
✓
PITT −6.3
–
–

Fri, Oct 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#24Louisville@Boston College
65%
35%
31
27
✓
LOU −6.6
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Boise State@UNLV
52%
48%
29
24
✓
BOIS −1.2
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#16USC
16%
84%
20
42
✓
USC −15.5
–
–

Sat, Oct 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
#23Oklahoma@#8Ole Miss
21%
79%
14
26
✓
MISS −12.5
–
–
Final
Washington@#15Indiana
27%
73%
17
31
✓
IU −9.1
–
–
Final
Nebraska@#1Ohio State
5.6%
94%
17
21
✓
OSU −25.1
–
–
Final
#6Notre DamevsNavy
84%
16%
51
14
✓
ND −16.6
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#25Virginia Tech
32%
68%
6
21
✓
VT −6.7
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Virginia
48%
52%
41
14
✗
UVA −0.1
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Ohio
38%
62%
16
47
✓
OHIO −4.2
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Memphis
8.3%
92%
28
33
✓
MEM −21.8
–
–
Final
Tulane@North Texas
74%
26%
45
37
✓
TULN −10.6
–
–
Final
Arkansas@Mississippi State
61%
39%
58
25
✓
ARK −4.9
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Appalachian State
36%
64%
26
33
✓
APP −5.5
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Miami (OH)
17%
83%
7
46
✓
M-OH −14.6
–
–
Final
Temple@East Carolina
30%
70%
34
56
✓
ECU −8.0
–
–

Afternoon 19 games

Final
#21Missouri@#4Alabama
16%
84%
0
34
✓
ALA −15.5
–
–
Final
Illinois@#5Oregon
12%
88%
9
38
✓
ORE −18.7
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Iowa
22%
78%
14
40
✓
IOWA −12.0
–
–
Final
Maryland@Minnesota
39%
61%
23
48
✓
MINN −4.1
–
–
Final
Rice@UConn
24%
76%
10
17
✓
CONN −10.8
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Stanford
43%
57%
27
24
✗
STAN −2.5
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Baylor
44%
56%
28
38
✓
BAY −1.8
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@TCU
37%
63%
34
35
✓
TCU −4.8
–
–
Final
BYU@UCF
61%
39%
37
24
✓
BYU −4.8
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@James Madison
4.5%
96%
15
32
✓
JMU −26.8
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Akron
65%
35%
21
25
✗
EMU −6.7
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Ball State
73%
27%
23
25
✗
NIU −10.2
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Toledo
34%
66%
41
26
✗
TOL −6.0
–
–
Final
Kent State@Western Michigan
11%
89%
21
52
✓
WMU −19.2
–
–
Final
UTSA@Tulsa
66%
34%
45
46
✗
UTSA −6.9
–
–
Final
Oregon State@California
31%
69%
7
44
✓
CAL −7.4
–
–
Final
#2Texas@Vanderbilt
93%
7.4%
27
24
✓
TEX −23.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Colorado State
24%
76%
6
17
✓
CSU −10.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@South Alabama
32%
68%
17
46
✓
USA −7.0
–
–

Prime time 9 games

Final
Florida State@#12Miami (FL)
16%
84%
14
36
✓
MIA −15.2
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Arizona
57%
43%
31
26
✓
WVU −3.2
–
–
Final
Utah@Houston
63%
37%
14
17
✗
UTAH −5.7
–
–
Final
Utah State@Wyoming
39%
61%
27
25
✗
WYO −3.9
–
–
Final
Troy@Arkansas State
44%
56%
31
34
✓
ARST −2.0
–
–
Final
#11LSU@#14Texas A&M
48%
52%
23
38
✓
TA&M −0.5
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#22Michigan
20%
80%
17
24
✓
MICH −12.7
–
–
Final
#7Penn State@Wisconsin
71%
29%
28
13
✓
PSU −9.3
–
–
Final
Auburn@Kentucky
43%
57%
24
10
✗
UK −2.1
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Cincinnati@Colorado
33%
67%
23
34
✓
COLO −6.7
–
–
Final
Washington State@San Diego State
83%
17%
29
26
✓
WSU −15.6
–
–
Final
Nevada@Hawaii
60%
40%
13
34
✗
NEV −4.3
–
–

Sun, Oct 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#13SMU@Duke
72%
28%
28
27
✓
SMU −9.6
–
–
Final
Kansas@#17Kansas State
27%
73%
27
29
✓
KSU −9.3
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Fresno State
46%
54%
10
33
✓
FRES −1.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 26 · 3:30 PM ET Wagner at UMass UMass −23.6 93%