The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 2024

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 39

Wilder than 39% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 15.5 expected

  • Biggest shockBuffalo over Toledo17% chance · won 30-15
  • Runner-upNorthwestern over Maryland23% chance · won 37-10
  • Runner-upVanderbilt over Kentucky25% chance · won 20-13

Upsets

Tue, Oct 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
FIU@Liberty
16%
84%
24
31
✓
LIB −16.3
–
–

Wed, Oct 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
New Mexico State@Jacksonville State
17%
83%
13
54
✓
JXST −16.2
–
–

Thu, Oct 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Coastal Carolina@James Madison
32%
68%
7
39
✓
JMU −7.9
–
–

Fri, Oct 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
UNLV@Utah State
92%
8.4%
50
34
✓
UNLV −22.7
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Utah@Arizona State
49%
51%
19
27
✓
ASU −0.4
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Middle Tennessee@Louisiana Tech
45%
55%
21
48
✓
LT −2.0
–
–
Final
UTEP@Western Kentucky
8.9%
91%
17
44
✓
WKU −22.4
–
–

Sat, Oct 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 10 games

Final
South Carolina@#3Alabama
11%
89%
25
27
✓
ALA −20.8
–
–
Final
#22Missouri@UMass
98%
1.9%
45
3
✓
MIZ −34.1
–
–
Final
#23Washington@IowaUpset
49%
51%
16
40
✓
IOWA −0.4
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Rutgers
44%
56%
42
7
✗
RUTG −2.8
–
–
Final
#9Clemson@Wake Forest
91%
8.6%
49
14
✓
CLEM −22.6
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@North Carolina
54%
46%
41
34
✓
GT −1.6
–
–
Final
Ball State@Kent State
65%
35%
37
35
✓
BALL −6.2
–
–
Final
Toledo@BuffaloUpset
84%
16%
15
30
✗
TOL −16.0
–
–
Final
UAB@Army
7.0%
93%
10
44
✓
ARMY −24.5
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Eastern Michigan
50%
50%
38
14
✓
PK
–
–

Afternoon 17 games

Final
#2Texasvs#11Oklahoma
76%
24%
34
3
✓
TEX −11.7
–
–
Final
Purdue@Illinois
15%
85%
49
50
✓
ILL −17.5
–
–
Final
#5Penn State@#14USC
63%
37%
33
30
✓
PSU −5.3
–
–
Final
Stanford@#8Notre Dame
6.7%
93%
7
49
✓
ND −24.9
–
–
Final
California@Pittsburgh
43%
57%
15
17
✓
PITT −3.1
–
–
Final
#20Louisville@Virginia
71%
29%
24
20
✓
LOU −9.1
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@UCF
42%
58%
19
13
✗
UCF −3.5
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Colorado State
74%
26%
24
31
✗
SJSU −10.3
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Wyoming
57%
43%
27
24
✓
SDSU −2.7
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Georgia State
52%
48%
21
14
✓
ODU −0.9
–
–
Final
Akron@Western Michigan
21%
79%
24
34
✓
WMU −13.4
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Bowling Green
38%
62%
17
7
✗
BGSU −5.0
–
–
Final
MemphisvsUSF
80%
20%
21
3
✓
MEM −13.8
–
–
Final
Arizona@BYU
34%
66%
19
41
✓
BYU −6.8
–
–
Final
Ohio@Central Michigan
60%
40%
27
25
✓
OHIO −4.1
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#4Georgia
2.6%
97%
31
41
✓
UGA −32.3
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Louisiana-Monroe
20%
80%
21
38
✓
ULM −13.8
–
–

Prime time 12 games

Final
Florida@#10Tennessee
25%
75%
17
23
✓
TENN −11.3
–
–
Final
Air Force@New Mexico
61%
39%
37
52
✗
AF −4.4
–
–
Final
Washington State@Fresno State
61%
39%
25
17
✓
WSU −4.4
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Texas State
28%
72%
9
41
✓
TXST −10.0
–
–
Final
North Texas@Florida Atlantic
60%
40%
41
37
✓
UNT −4.2
–
–
Final
UTSA@Rice
54%
46%
27
29
✗
UTSA −1.4
–
–
Final
#6Ole Miss@#16LSU
63%
37%
26
29
✗
MISS −5.3
–
–
Final
#1Ohio State@#7Oregon
63%
37%
31
32
✗
OSU −5.4
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Nevada
71%
29%
37
42
✗
ORST −9.1
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Louisiana
30%
70%
24
34
✓
UL −8.6
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#24KentuckyUpset
25%
75%
20
13
✗
UK −11.2
–
–
Final
Minnesota@UCLA
60%
40%
21
17
✓
MINN −4.0
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
#19Kansas State@Colorado
61%
39%
31
28
✓
KSU −4.5
–
–
Final
#25Boise State@Hawaii
90%
9.6%
28
7
✓
BOIS −21.6
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Northwestern@MarylandUpset
23%
77%
37
10
✗
MD −12.2
–
–

Sun, Oct 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Syracuse@NC State
62%
38%
24
17
✓
SYR −4.9
–
–
Final
#18Iowa State@West Virginia
56%
44%
28
16
✓
ISU −2.5
–
–
Final
Marshall@Georgia Southern
48%
52%
23
24
✓
GASO −0.9
–
–