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2026 · Week 11

Week 1 slate, 2024

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 100 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 31

Wilder than 31% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 11.3 expected

  • Biggest shockNevada over Troy18% chance · won 28-26
  • Runner-upBoston College over Florida State18% chance · won 28-13
  • Runner-upMontana State over New Mexico20% chance · won 35-31

Upsets

Sat, Aug 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
#15Florida StatevsGeorgia TechUpset
66%
34%
21
24
✗
FSU −6.8
–
–

Sun, Aug 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#16SMU@Nevada
90%
9.5%
29
24
✓
SMU −20.8
–
–

Fri, Aug 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
Temple@#11Oklahoma
2.7%
97%
3
51
✓
OU −29.8
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Michigan State
25%
75%
10
16
✓
MSU −9.8
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Wisconsin
14%
86%
14
28
✓
WIS −16.2
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
TCU@Stanford
55%
45%
34
27
✓
TCU −2.5
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
North Carolina@Minnesota
53%
47%
19
17
✓
UNC −1.6
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@Jacksonville State
49%
51%
55
27
✗
PK
–
–

Sat, Aug 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 5 games

Final
#9Clemsonvs#1Georgia
31%
69%
3
34
✓
UGA −7.3
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Vanderbilt
70%
30%
27
34
✗
VT −8.6
–
–
Final
UConn@Maryland
11%
89%
7
50
✓
MD −18.8
–
–
Final
#3Penn State@West Virginia
70%
30%
34
12
✓
PSU −8.6
–
–
Final
Kent State@Pittsburgh
10.0%
90%
24
55
✓
PITT −19.4
–
–

Afternoon 12 games

Final
Miami (FL)@#18FloridaUpset
29%
71%
41
17
✗
FLA −8.1
–
–
Final
Colorado State@#5Texas
3.9%
96%
0
52
✓
TEX −27.2
–
–
Final
FIU@Indiana
12%
88%
7
31
✓
IU −17.6
–
–
Final
UTEP@Nebraska
7.6%
92%
7
40
✓
NEB −21.8
–
–
Final
Akron@#4Ohio State
1.2%
99%
6
52
✓
OSU −35.3
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@UMass
42%
58%
28
14
✗
MASS −2.6
–
–
Final
Ohio@Syracuse
24%
76%
22
38
✓
SYR −10.5
–
–
Final
Kennesaw State@UTSA
15%
86%
16
28
✓
UTSA −16.0
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)vsNorthwestern
40%
60%
6
13
✓
NU −3.6
–
–
Final
Boise State@Georgia Southern
64%
36%
56
45
✓
BOIS −5.9
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@South Carolina
15%
85%
19
23
✓
SC −15.4
–
–
Final
North Texas@South Alabama
27%
73%
52
38
✗
USA −9.0
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
Western Kentucky@#2Alabama
3.2%
97%
0
63
✓
ALA −28.7
–
–
Final
UNLV@Houston
34%
66%
27
7
✗
HOU −5.9
–
–
Final
Sam Houston@Rice
28%
72%
34
14
✗
RICE −8.3
–
–
Final
Nevada@TroyUpset
18%
82%
28
26
✗
TROY −13.6
–
–
Final
#8Notre Dame@#14Texas A&M
47%
53%
23
13
✗
TA&M −0.7
–
–
Final
Fresno State@#6Michigan
8.0%
92%
10
30
✓
MICH −21.5
–
–
Final
#25UCLA@Hawaii
85%
15%
16
13
✓
UCLA −16.3
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Kentucky
11%
89%
0
31
✓
UK −18.9
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
New Mexico@#21Arizona
5.5%
94%
39
61
✓
ARIZ −24.5
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Arizona State
22%
78%
7
48
✓
ASU −11.3
–
–

Sun, Sep 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#20USCvs#13LSU
39%
61%
27
20
✗
LSU −3.7
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Georgia State@Georgia Tech
17%
83%
12
35
✓
GT −14.5
–
–
Final
James Madison@Charlotte
43%
57%
30
7
✗
CLT −2.2
–
–

Mon, Sep 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Boston College@#15Florida StateUpset
19%
82%
28
13
✗
FSU −13.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Aug 29 · 7:30 PM ET Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs Arkansas Arkansas −36.9 99%
Sat, Aug 31 · 7:30 PM ET Alabama A&M at #19 Auburn Auburn −42.4 >99%
Sat, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET Furman at #12 Ole Miss Ole Miss −42.9 >99%
Sat, Aug 31 · 6:00 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at Mississippi State Mississippi State −33.1 98%
Fri, Aug 30 · TBD Murray State at #10 Missouri Missouri −48.9 >99%
Sat, Aug 31 · 12:45 PM ET Chattanooga at #17 Tennessee Tennessee −43.4 >99%
Sat, Aug 31 · 12:00 PM ET Illinois State at Iowa Iowa −31.2 98%
Sat, Aug 31 · 7:30 PM ET Idaho at #7 Oregon Oregon −41.2 >99%
Thu, Aug 29 · 6:00 PM ET Howard at Rutgers Rutgers −32.2 98%
Sat, Aug 31 · 11:00 PM ET Weber State at #22 Washington Washington −32.7 98%
Thu, Aug 29 · 7:00 PM ET North Carolina A&T at Wake Forest Wake Forest −32.9 98%
Thu, Aug 29 · 7:00 PM ET New Hampshire at UCF UCF −38.1 99%
Fri, Aug 30 · 7:30 PM ET Elon at Duke Duke −35.8 99%
Sat, Aug 31 · 6:00 PM ET Campbell at Liberty Liberty −40.2 >99%
Sat, Aug 31 · 6:00 PM ET Richmond at Virginia Virginia −30.5 98%
Sat, Aug 31 · 5:00 PM ET Stony Brook at Marshall Marshall −28.7 97%
Sat, Aug 31 · 2:30 PM ET Towson at Cincinnati Cincinnati −30.0 97%
Sat, Aug 31 · 12:00 PM ET Austin Peay at Louisville Louisville −31.8 98%
Sat, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET Central Arkansas at Arkansas State Arkansas State −31.3 98%
Sat, Aug 31 · 3:30 PM ET East Tennessee State at Appalachian State Appalachian State −33.1 98%
Sat, Aug 31 · 12:00 PM ET Indiana State at Purdue Purdue −38.6 99%
Sat, Aug 31 · 3:30 PM ET North Dakota at Iowa State Iowa State −38.0 99%
Fri, Aug 30 · TBD North Dakota State at Colorado Colorado −21.9 92%
Sat, Aug 31 · 2:00 PM ET South Dakota State at Oklahoma State Oklahoma State −32.3 98%
Sun, Sep 1 · TBD Southern Illinois at BYU BYU −22.7 93%
Thu, Aug 29 · 7:00 PM ET Western Carolina at NC State NC State −43.8 >99%
Sat, Aug 31 · 5:00 PM ET UC Davis at California California −33.4 98%
Sun, Sep 1 · TBD Houston Christian at #16 SMU SMU −52.7 >99%
Sat, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET Bethune-Cookman at USF USF −29.2 97%
Sun, Sep 1 · TBD Grambling at Louisiana Louisiana −32.8 98%
Thu, Aug 29 · 7:00 PM ET Jackson State at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −17.0 87%
Fri, Aug 30 · TBD Lindenwood vs #24 Kansas Kansas −30.9 98%
Thu, Aug 29 · 9:00 PM ET Southern Utah at Utah Utah −35.9 99%
Sat, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET Tarleton State at Baylor Baylor −29.3 97%
Sat, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET UT Martin at #23 Kansas State Kansas State −36.3 99%
Sat, Aug 31 · 7:30 PM ET Abilene Christian at Texas Tech Texas Tech −40.2 >99%
Sat, Aug 31 · 3:00 PM ET Portland State at Washington State Washington State −27.8 96%
Sun, Sep 1 · TBD Nicholls at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −19.9 90%
Sat, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET Tennessee Tech at Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee −30.7 98%
Sat, Aug 31 · 9:00 PM ET Southeast Missouri State at New Mexico State New Mexico State −20.0 90%
Sat, Aug 24 · 4:00 PM ET Montana State at New Mexico New Mexico −12.6 80%
Thu, Aug 29 · 10:00 PM ET Sacramento State at San Jose State San Jose State −5.0 64%
Sat, Aug 31 · 3:30 PM ET Merrimack at Air Force Air Force −28.1 97%
Sun, Sep 1 · TBD East Texas A&M at San Diego State San Diego State −18.8 89%
Sat, Aug 31 · 12:00 AM ET Robert Morris at Utah State Utah State −27.4 96%
Sat, Aug 31 · 6:30 PM ET Idaho State at Oregon State Oregon State −38.0 99%
Sun, Sep 1 · TBD Lamar at Texas State Texas State −29.8 97%
Sat, Aug 24 · 11:59 PM ET Delaware State at Hawaii Hawaii −20.0 91%
Thu, Aug 29 · 7:00 PM ET Lafayette at Buffalo Buffalo −16.7 87%
Thu, Aug 29 · 7:30 PM ET Duquesne at Toledo Toledo −31.6 98%
Thu, Aug 29 · 7:00 PM ET Fordham at Bowling Green Bowling Green −24.3 94%
Thu, Aug 29 · 7:00 PM ET Central Connecticut at Central Michigan Central Michigan −27.3 96%
Sat, Aug 31 · 3:30 PM ET Western Illinois at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −26.3 96%
Fri, Aug 30 · TBD Alcorn State at UAB UAB −29.4 97%
Fri, Aug 30 · TBD SE Louisiana at Tulane Tulane −31.4 98%
Fri, Aug 30 · TBD Northwestern State at Tulsa Tulsa −31.9 98%
Fri, Aug 30 · 6:00 PM ET Lehigh at Army Army −25.1 95%
Sat, Aug 31 · 6:00 PM ET Norfolk State at East Carolina East Carolina −31.9 98%
Sat, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET North Alabama at Memphis Memphis −34.8 99%
Sat, Aug 31 · 12:00 PM ET Bucknell at Navy Navy −32.8 98%
Thu, Aug 29 · 9:00 PM ET Eastern Illinois at Illinois Illinois −33.5 98%