The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Bowls slate, 2025

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 46 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 67

Wilder than 67% of weeks in the archive.

19 upsets against 16.7 expected

  • Biggest shockOld Dominion over USF27% chance · won 24-10
  • Runner-upTCU over USC28% chance · won 30-27
  • Runner-upMiami (FL) over Ohio State29% chance · won 24-14

Upsets

Sat, Dec 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Boise Statevs#22Washington
29%
71%
10
38
✓
WASH −8.5
–
–

Tue, Dec 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
TroyvsJacksonville State
56%
44%
13
17
✗
TROY −2.9
–
–

Wed, Dec 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Old DominionvsUSF
27%
73%
24
10
✗
USF −9.2
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
LouisianavsDelaware
62%
38%
13
20
✗
UL −5.4
–
–

Thu, Dec 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Missouri StatevsArkansas State
52%
48%
28
34
✗
MOST −1.4
–
–

Fri, Dec 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
Kennesaw StatevsWestern Michigan
40%
60%
6
41
✓
WMU −3.4
–
–
Final
MemphisvsNC State
48%
52%
7
31
✓
NCSU −0.5
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#9Alabama@#15Oklahoma
48%
52%
34
24
✗
OU −0.3
–
–

Sat, Dec 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
#7Miami (FL)@#8Texas A&M
43%
57%
10
3
✗
TA&M −2.2
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Tulane@#10Ole Miss
13%
87%
10
41
✓
MISS −17.7
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
James Madison@#4Oregon
11%
89%
34
51
✓
ORE −19.4
–
–

Mon, Dec 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Washington StatevsUtah State
64%
36%
34
21
✓
WSU −6.1
–
–

Tue, Dec 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
ToledovsLouisville
34%
66%
22
27
✓
LOU −6.3
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Western KentuckyvsSouthern Miss
60%
40%
27
16
✓
WKU −4.5
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
UNLVvsOhio
58%
42%
10
17
✗
UNLV −3.9
–
–

Wed, Dec 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
California@Hawaii
44%
56%
31
35
✓
HAW −1.9
–
–

Fri, Dec 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Central MichiganvsNorthwestern
18%
82%
7
34
✓
NU −14.1
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
New MexicovsMinnesota
30%
70%
17
20
✓
MINN −7.7
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
FIUvsUTSA
23%
77%
20
57
✓
UTSA −11.2
–
–

Sat, Dec 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 3 games

Final
PittsburghvsEast Carolina
64%
36%
17
23
✗
PITT −6.0
–
–
Final
#16Penn Statevs#24Clemson
58%
42%
22
10
✓
PSU −3.8
–
–
Final
UConnvsArmy
52%
48%
16
41
✗
CONN −1.1
–
–

Afternoon 3 games

Final
Georgia Techvs#18BYU
33%
67%
21
25
✓
BYU −6.6
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)vsFresno State
43%
57%
3
18
✓
FRES −2.2
–
–
Final
North TexasvsSan Diego State
69%
31%
49
47
✓
UNT −8.5
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
Virginiavs#23MissouriUpset
33%
67%
13
7
✗
MIZ −6.4
–
–
Final
#25LSUvsHoustonUpset
70%
30%
35
38
✗
LSU −8.6
–
–

Mon, Dec 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Georgia SouthernvsAppalachian State
51%
49%
29
10
✓
GASO −0.8
–
–

Tue, Dec 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Coastal CarolinavsLouisiana Tech
34%
66%
14
23
✓
LT −6.1
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#21TennesseevsIllinoisUpset
60%
40%
28
30
✗
TENN −4.4
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#11USCvsTCUUpset
72%
28%
27
30
✗
USC −9.8
–
–

Wed, Dec 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
#17Iowavs#13Vanderbilt
42%
58%
34
27
✗
VAN −2.8
–
–
Final
Arizona StatevsDuke
55%
45%
39
42
✗
ASU −2.6
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
#19Michiganvs#12Texas
39%
61%
27
41
✓
TEX −4.0
–
–
Final
Nebraskavs#14Utah
21%
79%
22
44
✓
UTAH −12.5
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#7Miami (FL)vs#1Ohio State
29%
71%
24
14
✗
OSU −8.2
–
–

Thu, Jan 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
#4Oregonvs#5Texas Tech
51%
49%
23
0
✓
ORE −0.7
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#9Alabamavs#3Indiana
36%
64%
3
38
✓
IU −5.2
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#10Ole Missvs#6Georgia
37%
63%
39
34
✗
UGA −5.0
–
–

Fri, Jan 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
RicevsTexas State
18%
82%
10
41
✓
TXST −14.2
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
NavyvsCincinnati
44%
56%
35
13
✗
CIN −2.0
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
Wake ForestvsMississippi State
40%
60%
43
29
✗
MSST −3.5
–
–
Final
Arizonavs#20SMU
41%
59%
19
24
✓
SMU −3.2
–
–

Thu, Jan 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#7Miami (FL)vs#10Ole Miss
57%
42%
31
27
✓
MIA −3.5
–
–

Fri, Jan 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#4Oregonvs#3Indiana
47%
53%
22
56
✓
IU −0.6
–
–

Mon, Jan 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#7Miami (FL)vs#3Indiana
40%
60%
21
27
✓
IU −3.6
–
–