The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 8 slate, 2025

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 60 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 65

Wilder than 65% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 17.4 expected

  • Biggest shockUAB over Memphis8.5% chance · won 31-24
  • Runner-upLouisville over Miami (FL)16% chance · won 24-21
  • Runner-upFIU over Western Kentucky18% chance · won 25-6

Upsets

Tue, Oct 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
New Mexico State@Liberty
26%
74%
27
30
✓
LIB −9.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@South Alabama
36%
64%
15
14
✗
USA −5.2
–
–

Wed, Oct 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Delaware@Jacksonville State
35%
65%
25
38
✓
JXST −5.5
–
–
Final
UTEPvsSam Houston
55%
45%
35
17
✓
UTEP −2.5
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
FIU@Western KentuckyUpset
18%
82%
25
6
✗
WKU −14.0
–
–

Thu, Oct 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Tulsa@East Carolina
8.0%
92%
27
41
✓
ECU −22.0
–
–

Fri, Oct 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Louisville@#8Miami (FL)Upset
16%
84%
24
21
✗
MIA −15.2
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Utah State
40%
60%
25
30
✓
USU −3.3
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
North Carolina@California
32%
68%
18
21
✓
CAL −6.9
–
–

Sat, Oct 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
#12LSU@#15Vanderbilt
47%
53%
24
31
✓
VAN −0.7
–
–
Final
Washington@#18Michigan
35%
65%
7
24
✓
MICH −5.7
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Duke
53%
47%
27
18
✓
GT −1.8
–
–
Final
UConn@Boston College
45%
55%
38
23
✗
BC −1.4
–
–
Final
Arizona@Houston
43%
57%
28
31
✓
HOU −2.4
–
–
Final
Baylor@TCU
33%
67%
36
42
✓
TCU −6.4
–
–
Final
Army@Tulane
23%
77%
17
24
✓
TULN −11.2
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Bowling GreenUpset
22%
78%
27
6
✗
BGSU −11.9
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Miami (OH)
16%
84%
30
44
✓
M-OH −15.8
–
–
Final
#14Oklahoma@South Carolina
54%
46%
26
7
✓
OU −2.0
–
–
Final
West Virginia@UCF
26%
74%
13
45
✓
UCF −9.7
–
–
Final
Kent State@Toledo
3.5%
96%
10
45
✓
TOL −28.7
–
–
Final
Buffalo@UMass
80%
20%
28
21
✓
BUF −13.7
–
–

Afternoon 22 games

Final
Purdue@Northwestern
29%
71%
0
19
✓
NU −8.5
–
–
Final
Troy@Louisiana-Monroe
60%
40%
37
14
✓
TROY −4.4
–
–
Final
#5Texas A&M@Arkansas
73%
27%
45
42
✓
TA&M −10.2
–
–
Final
#13Ole Miss@#4Georgia
29%
71%
35
43
✓
UGA −8.4
–
–
Final
#1Ohio State@Wisconsin
94%
6.3%
34
0
✓
OSU −24.9
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#10Indiana
5.4%
95%
13
38
✓
IU −25.4
–
–
Final
SMU@#16ClemsonUpset
29%
71%
35
24
✗
CLEM −8.4
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Air Force
34%
66%
21
24
✓
AF −6.0
–
–
Final
UNLV@Boise State
28%
72%
31
56
✓
BOIS −9.1
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@Appalachian State
30%
70%
45
37
✗
APP −8.1
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@James Madison
40%
60%
27
63
✓
JMU −3.6
–
–
Final
Texas State@Marshall
41%
59%
37
40
✓
MRSH −3.0
–
–
Final
Temple@Charlotte
72%
28%
49
14
✓
TEM −10.0
–
–
Final
UTSA@North Texas
44%
56%
17
55
✓
UNT −1.8
–
–
Final
Akron@Ball State
46%
54%
28
42
✓
BALL −1.0
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Ohio
16%
84%
21
48
✓
OHIO −15.2
–
–
Final
#11Texas Tech@Arizona StateUpset
68%
32%
22
26
✗
TTU −7.9
–
–
Final
Memphis@UABUpset
92%
8.5%
24
31
✗
MEM −22.3
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#22Florida
23%
77%
21
23
✓
FLA −11.4
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Louisiana
38%
62%
22
10
✗
UL −4.2
–
–
Final
#7Oregon@Rutgers
80%
20%
56
10
✓
ORE −13.8
–
–
Final
Washington State@Virginia
15%
85%
20
22
✓
UVA −15.9
–
–

Prime time 11 games

Final
#6Texas@Kentucky
81%
19%
16
13
✓
TEX −14.3
–
–
Final
#19Penn State@#24Iowa
44%
56%
24
25
✓
IOWA −2.0
–
–
Final
Maryland@UCLA
50%
50%
17
20
✗
MD −0.6
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Colorado State
45%
55%
31
19
✗
CSU −1.6
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Georgia Southern
27%
73%
24
41
✓
GASO −9.4
–
–
Final
#17Tennessee@#3Alabama
21%
79%
20
37
✓
ALA −12.3
–
–
Final
#9USC@#2Notre Dame
23%
77%
24
34
✓
ND −11.4
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Syracuse
55%
45%
30
13
✓
PITT −2.5
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@USF
6.0%
94%
13
48
✓
USF −24.5
–
–
Final
#20Missouri@#23Auburn
43%
57%
23
17
✗
AUB −2.4
–
–
Final
Nevada@New Mexico
23%
77%
22
24
✓
UNM −11.2
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Florida State@StanfordUpset
78%
22%
13
20
✗
FSU −13.1
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Nebraska@Minnesota
63%
37%
6
24
✗
NEB −5.9
–
–

Sun, Oct 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
#21Utah@#25BYU
41%
59%
21
24
✓
BYU −3.0
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Oklahoma State
84%
16%
49
17
✓
CIN −16.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 18 · 10:00 PM ET Lafayette at Oregon State Oregon State −27.7 96%