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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 1 slate, 2025

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 96 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 43

Wilder than 43% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 15.4 expected

  • Biggest shockTarleton State over Army1.6% chance · won 30-27
  • Runner-upCentral Michigan over San Jose State13% chance · won 16-14
  • Runner-upAustin Peay over Middle Tennessee14% chance · won 34-14

Upsets

Sat, Aug 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Iowa Statevs#22Kansas StateUpset
43%
57%
24
21
✗
KSU −2.1
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Fresno State@Kansas
17%
83%
7
31
✓
KU −14.1
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
Sam Houston@Western Kentucky
43%
57%
24
41
✓
WKU −2.3
–
–
Final
Stanford@Hawaii
55%
45%
20
23
✗
STAN −2.3
–
–

Thu, Aug 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 2 games

Final
Boise State@USF
60%
40%
7
34
✗
BOIS −4.6
–
–
Final
Ohio@Rutgers
22%
78%
31
34
✓
RUTG −11.4
–
–

Prime time 5 games

Final
East Carolina@NC State
26%
74%
17
24
✓
NCSU −9.2
–
–
Final
Jacksonville State@UCF
23%
77%
10
17
✓
UCF −11.1
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Akron
51%
49%
10
0
✓
WYO −0.7
–
–
Final
#23NebraskavsCincinnati
68%
32%
20
17
✓
NEB −7.6
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Wisconsin
19%
81%
0
17
✓
WIS −13.0
–
–

Fri, Aug 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 4 games

Final
Western Michigan@Michigan State
18%
82%
6
23
✓
MSU −13.7
–
–
Final
Kennesaw State@Wake Forest
13%
87%
9
10
✓
WAKE −17.3
–
–
Final
Appalachian StatevsCharlotte
65%
35%
34
11
✓
APP −6.4
–
–
Final
UNLVvsSam Houston
72%
28%
38
21
✓
UNLV −9.7
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Central Michigan@San Jose StateUpset
13%
87%
16
14
✗
SJSU −16.7
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Buffalo@Minnesota
16%
84%
10
23
✓
MINN −15.1
–
–

Sat, Aug 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 8 games

Final
Mississippi State@Southern Miss
81%
19%
34
17
✓
MSST −14.1
–
–
Final
Syracusevs#16Tennessee
25%
75%
26
45
✓
TENN −9.9
–
–
Final
#4Texas@#1Ohio State
35%
65%
7
14
✓
OSU −5.5
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Maryland
21%
79%
7
39
✓
MD −11.8
–
–
Final
Ball State@Purdue
21%
79%
0
31
✓
PUR −11.9
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Tulane
32%
68%
3
23
✓
TULN −6.5
–
–
Final
Toledo@Kentucky
31%
69%
16
24
✓
UK −7.3
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Indiana
14%
86%
14
27
✓
IU −16.3
–
–

Afternoon 5 games

Final
#2Alabama@Florida StateUpset
82%
18%
17
31
✗
ALA −14.9
–
–
Final
Marshall@#5Georgia
4.5%
96%
7
45
✓
UGA −26.0
–
–
Final
Nevada@#3Penn State
1.6%
98%
11
46
✓
PSU −33.3
–
–
Final
Temple@UMass
44%
56%
42
10
✗
MASS −1.9
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@Virginia
31%
69%
7
48
✓
UVA −7.0
–
–

Prime time 7 games

Final
UTSA@#10Texas A&M
16%
84%
24
42
✓
TA&M −15.2
–
–
Final
#9LSU@#7Clemson
38%
62%
17
10
✗
CLEM −4.4
–
–
Final
Missouri State@#18USC
9.6%
90%
13
73
✓
USC −19.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico@#13Michigan
1.7%
98%
17
34
✓
MICH −33.0
–
–
Final
UTEP@Utah State
42%
58%
16
28
✓
USU −2.7
–
–
Final
Georgia State@#14Ole Miss
6.2%
94%
7
63
✓
MISS −23.5
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Fresno State
48%
52%
14
42
✓
FRES −0.4
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
California@Oregon State
47%
53%
34
15
✗
ORST −0.7
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Arizona
24%
76%
6
40
✓
ARIZ −10.6
–
–
Final
Utah@UCLA
36%
64%
43
10
✗
UCLA −4.9
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Washington
19%
81%
21
38
✓
WASH −13.0
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
#24Auburn@#21Baylor
39%
61%
38
24
✗
BAY −4.0
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Colorado
46%
54%
27
20
✗
COLO −1.2
–
–

Sun, Aug 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Virginia Techvs#12South Carolina
31%
69%
11
24
✓
SC −7.1
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#6Notre Dame@#15Miami (FL)
57%
43%
24
27
✗
ND −3.2
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Rice@Louisiana
28%
72%
14
12
✗
UL −8.4
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Texas State
23%
77%
27
52
✓
TXST −10.9
–
–

Tue, Sep 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
TCU@North Carolina
57%
43%
48
14
✓
TCU −3.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Aug 30 · 4:15 PM ET Alabama A&M at Arkansas Arkansas −40.9 >99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET Long Island University at #11 Florida Florida −49.6 >99%
Thu, Aug 28 · 7:30 PM ET Central Arkansas at Missouri Missouri −40.3 >99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 6:00 PM ET Illinois State at #17 Oklahoma Oklahoma −39.3 99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET Charleston Southern at Vanderbilt Vanderbilt −39.1 99%
Fri, Aug 29 · 7:30 PM ET Western Illinois at Illinois Illinois −39.8 >99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 6:00 PM ET UAlbany at #25 Iowa Iowa −41.0 >99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 4:00 PM ET Montana State at #8 Oregon Oregon −42.1 >99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 10:00 PM ET Idaho at Washington State Washington State −15.8 85%
Thu, Aug 28 · 7:30 PM ET Elon at Duke Duke −31.3 98%
Sat, Aug 30 · 2:00 PM ET Fordham at Boston College Boston College −34.8 99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 3:00 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at Louisville Louisville −42.7 >99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 12:00 PM ET Duquesne at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh −38.9 99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 9:00 PM ET East Texas A&M at #19 SMU SMU −41.9 >99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 10:00 PM ET Northern Arizona at #20 Arizona State Arizona State −40.2 >99%
Sun, Aug 31 · TBD Portland State at BYU BYU −35.6 99%
Fri, Aug 29 · TBD Stephen F. Austin at Houston Houston −36.4 99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 3:30 PM ET South Dakota at Iowa State Iowa State −34.3 99%
Fri, Aug 29 · 7:30 PM ET Wagner at Kansas Kansas −46.5 >99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET North Dakota at #22 Kansas State Kansas State −38.0 99%
Thu, Aug 28 · 7:30 PM ET UT Martin at Oklahoma State Oklahoma State −24.6 95%
Sat, Aug 30 · 7:30 PM ET Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Texas Tech Texas Tech −43.4 >99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 2:00 PM ET Robert Morris at West Virginia West Virginia −35.2 99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 2:00 PM ET Central Connecticut at UConn UConn −37.7 99%
Thu, Aug 28 · 7:00 PM ET Delaware State at Delaware Delaware −18.5 89%
Sat, Aug 30 · 4:00 PM ET Maine at Liberty Liberty −28.7 97%
Sat, Aug 30 · 7:30 PM ET SE Louisiana at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −24.7 95%
Sat, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET Austin Peay at Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee −16.1 86%
Sat, Aug 30 · 9:00 PM ET Bryant at New Mexico State New Mexico State −8.5 72%
Sat, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET North Alabama at Western Kentucky Western Kentucky −23.8 94%
Thu, Aug 28 · 10:00 PM ET Stony Brook at San Diego State San Diego State −25.6 95%
Sat, Aug 30 · 3:30 PM ET Bucknell at Air Force Air Force −32.6 98%
Sat, Aug 23 · 4:00 PM ET Idaho State at UNLV UNLV −38.1 99%
Thu, Aug 28 · 7:00 PM ET Saint Francis at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −26.4 96%
Sat, Aug 30 · 6:00 PM ET Weber State at James Madison James Madison −22.8 93%
Sat, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET Southeast Missouri State at Arkansas State Arkansas State −27.5 96%
Sat, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET Morgan State at South Alabama South Alabama −29.0 97%
Sat, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET Nicholls at Troy Troy −21.2 92%
Thu, Aug 28 · 8:30 PM ET Alabama State at UAB UAB −15.3 85%
Fri, Aug 29 · 6:00 PM ET Tarleton State at Army Army −33.1 98%
Sat, Aug 30 · 4:30 PM ET Chattanooga at Memphis Memphis −31.3 98%
Sat, Aug 30 · 12:00 PM ET VMI at Navy Navy −41.9 >99%
Sun, Aug 31 · TBD Lamar at North Texas North Texas −24.9 95%
Sun, Aug 31 · TBD Abilene Christian at Tulsa Tulsa −15.6 85%
Thu, Aug 28 · 6:00 PM ET Lafayette at Bowling Green Bowling Green −25.2 95%
Sat, Aug 30 · 12:00 PM ET Merrimack at Kent State Kent State −9.6 74%
Sat, Aug 30 · 3:30 PM ET Holy Cross at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −18.1 88%
Fri, Aug 29 · 7:00 PM ET Bethune-Cookman at FIU FIU −27.7 96%