Week 6 slate, 2025

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

No games match.

Thu, Oct 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final

Sam Houston@New Mexico State

54%
46%

10
37

✗

SHSU −1.6

–

–

Fri, Oct 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final

Western Kentucky@Delaware

59%
41%

27
24

✓

WKU −3.8

–

–

Final

Charlotte@USF

4.2%
96%

26
54

✓

USF −28.8

–

–

Late night 3 games

Final

New Mexico@San Jose State

33%
67%

28
35

✓

SJSU −7.3

–

–

Final

West Virginia@#21BYU

8.8%
91%

24
38

✓

BYU −22.5

–

–

Final

Colorado State@San Diego State

34%
66%

24
45

✓

SDSU −6.9

–

–

Sat, Oct 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final

Kentucky@#6Georgia

11%
89%

14
35

✓

UGA −20.3

–

–

Final

Wisconsin@#16Michigan

17%
84%

10
24

✓

MICH −16.2

–

–

Final

Illinois@Purdue

73%
27%

43
27

✓

ILL −10.1

–

–

Final

Boston College@Pittsburgh

39%
61%

7
48

✓

PITT −4.9

–

–

Final

#24Clemson@North Carolina

80%
20%

38
10

✓

CLEM −13.7

–

–

Final

Kansas State@Baylor

31%
69%

34
35

✓

BAY −8.4

–

–

Final

Iowa State@Cincinnati

57%
43%

30
38

✗

ISU −3.0

–

–

Final

Air Force@Navy

13%
87%

31
34

✓

NAVY −19.0

–

–

Final

Army@UAB

61%
39%

31
13

✓

ARMY −4.6

–

–

Final

Ohio@Ball StateUpset

86%
14%

14
20

✗

OHIO −17.5

–

–

Final

Wake Forest@Virginia Tech

28%
72%

30
23

✗

VT −9.9

–

–

Final

UTSA@Temple

66%
34%

21
27

✗

UTSA −6.9

–

–

Final

Western Michigan@UMass

76%
24%

21
3

✓

WMU −11.4

–

–

Afternoon 19 games

Final

Oklahoma State@Arizona

15%
85%

13
41

✓

ARIZ −17.3

–

–

Final

#14Vanderbilt@#4Alabama

28%
72%

14
30

✓

ALA −10.0

–

–

Final

#5Texas@FloridaUpset

69%
31%

21
29

✗

TEX −8.1

–

–

Final

#10Penn State@UCLAUpset

94%
6.1%

37
42

✗

PSU −25.6

–

–

Final

Washington@Maryland

58%
42%

24
20

✓

WASH −3.2

–

–

Final

Louisiana-Monroe@Northwestern

31%
69%

7
42

✓

NU −8.3

–

–

Final

Oregon State@Appalachian State

52%
48%

23
27

✗

ORST −0.7

–

–

Final

Virginia@Louisville

35%
65%

30
27

✗

LOU −6.5

–

–

Final

Syracuse@SMU

22%
78%

18
31

✓

SMU −13.1

–

–

Final

Boise State@#2Notre Dame

6.1%
94%

7
28

✓

ND −25.8

–

–

Final

FIU@UConn

26%
74%

10
51

✓

CONN −10.9

–

–

Final

James Madison@Georgia State

79%
21%

14
7

✓

JMU −13.4

–

–

Final

Central Michigan@Akron

47%
53%

22
28

✓

AKR −1.2

–

–

Final

Eastern Michigan@Buffalo

21%
79%

30
31

✓

BUF −13.2

–

–

Final

Miami (OH)@Northern Illinois

56%
44%

25
14

✓

M-OH −2.5

–

–

Final

Kent State@#12Oklahoma

0.1%
>99%

0
44

✓

OU −49.5

–

–

Final

Michigan State@#23Nebraska

21%
79%

27
38

✓

NEB −13.4

–

–

Final

Texas State@Arkansas State

74%
26%

30
31

✗

TXST −10.4

–

–

Final

Coastal Carolina@Old Dominion

16%
84%

7
47

✓

ODU −16.7

–

–

Prime time 9 games

Final

#19Texas Tech@Houston

66%
34%

35
11

✓

TTU −6.5

–

–

Final

UNLV@Wyoming

65%
35%

31
17

✓

UNLV −6.3

–

–

Final

South Alabama@Troy

38%
62%

24
31

✓

TROY −5.0

–

–

Final

Florida Atlantic@Rice

32%
68%

27
21

✗

RICE −8.0

–

–

Final

Mississippi State@#9Texas A&M

15%
85%

9
31

✓

TA&M −17.1

–

–

Final

Minnesota@#1Ohio State

5.4%
95%

3
42

✓

OSU −26.8

–

–

Final

#7Miami (FL)@Florida State

69%
31%

28
22

✓

MIA −8.0

–

–

Final

Colorado@#22TCU

26%
74%

21
35

✓

TCU −10.9

–

–

Final

Kansas@UCF

58%
42%

27
20

✓

KU −3.4

–

–

Late night 2 games

Final

Duke@California

52%
48%

45
21

✓

DUKE −0.9

–

–

Final

Nevada@Fresno State

14%
86%

17
20

✓

FRES −17.8

–

–

Sun, Oct 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final

Tulsa@Memphis

6.2%
94%

7
45

✓

MEM −25.6

–

–

Against FCS opponents

When	Game	Model	Win
Sat, Oct 4 · 2:00 PM ET	Campbell at NC State	NC State −50.4	>99%