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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 2025

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 83 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 1

Chaos 41

Wilder than 41% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 13.0 expected

  • Biggest shockLong Island University over Eastern Michigan4.8% chance · won 28-23
  • Runner-upUSF over Florida17% chance · won 18-16
  • Runner-upArmy over Kansas State21% chance · won 24-21

Upsets

Fri, Sep 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
James Madison@Louisville
19%
81%
14
28
✓
LOU −13.2
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Maryland
12%
88%
9
20
✓
MD −18.1
–
–

Sat, Sep 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
San Jose State@#4Texas
2.1%
98%
7
38
✓
TEX −31.4
–
–
Final
FIU@#3Penn State
0.9%
99%
0
34
✓
PSU −37.1
–
–
Final
Kennesaw State@Indiana
2.0%
98%
9
56
✓
IU −31.9
–
–
Final
Iowa@#25Iowa State
36%
64%
13
16
✓
ISU −4.9
–
–
Final
Illinois@Duke
56%
44%
45
19
✓
ILL −2.8
–
–
Final
Virginia@NC State
38%
62%
31
35
✓
NCSU −4.2
–
–
Final
Baylor@#21SMUUpset
33%
67%
48
45
✗
SMU −6.2
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Pittsburgh
7.3%
93%
17
45
✓
PITT −22.3
–
–
Final
UConn@Syracuse
32%
68%
20
27
✓
SYR −6.9
–
–
Final
Kent State@Texas Tech
0.8%
99%
14
62
✓
TTU −37.3
–
–
Final
Liberty@Jacksonville State
41%
59%
24
34
✓
JXST −3.1
–
–
Final
Utah State@#10Texas A&M
1.7%
98%
22
44
✓
TA&M −32.9
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
#9Ole Miss@Kentucky
75%
25%
30
23
✓
MISS −10.8
–
–
Final
Kansas@#24Missouri
36%
64%
31
42
✓
MIZ −5.0
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Rutgers
15%
85%
17
45
✓
RUTG −15.5
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#8Oregon
4.6%
95%
3
69
✓
ORE −25.8
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Oregon State
45%
55%
36
27
✗
ORST −1.2
–
–
Final
Troy@#7Clemson
1.7%
98%
16
27
✓
CLEM −32.9
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Cincinnati
15%
85%
20
34
✓
CIN −15.6
–
–
Final
Delaware@Colorado
4.1%
96%
7
31
✓
COLO −26.8
–
–
Final
Texas State@UTSA
35%
65%
43
36
✗
UTSA −5.5
–
–
Final
UAB@Navy
7.3%
93%
24
38
✓
NAVY −22.2
–
–
Final
North Texas@Western Michigan
52%
48%
33
30
✓
UNT −1.5
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Wisconsin
1.4%
99%
10
42
✓
WIS −34.0
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Ohio
44%
56%
10
17
✓
OHIO −1.8
–
–
Final
USF@#16FloridaUpset
17%
83%
18
16
✗
FLA −14.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas StatevsArkansas
16%
84%
14
56
✓
ARK −14.8
–
–
Final
Missouri State@Marshall
31%
69%
21
20
✗
MRSH −7.3
–
–

Prime time 16 games

Final
North Carolina@Charlotte
74%
26%
20
3
✓
UNC −10.5
–
–
Final
Army@Kansas StateUpset
21%
79%
24
21
✗
KSU −11.8
–
–
Final
Houston@Rice
66%
34%
35
9
✓
HOU −6.7
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Toledo
31%
69%
21
45
✓
TOL −7.0
–
–
Final
Memphis@Georgia State
72%
28%
38
16
✓
MEM −9.5
–
–
Final
Tulane@South Alabama
72%
28%
33
31
✓
TULN −9.7
–
–
Final
Ball State@#19Auburn
0.8%
99%
3
42
✓
AUB −37.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@#5LSU
0.8%
99%
7
23
✓
LSU −37.8
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Mississippi State
56%
44%
20
24
✗
ASU −2.8
–
–
Final
#18Michigan@#20Oklahoma
44%
56%
13
24
✓
OU −2.0
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Virginia Tech
41%
59%
44
20
✗
VT −2.9
–
–
Final
Akron@#22Nebraska
3.3%
97%
0
68
✓
NEB −28.3
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@#11USC
2.5%
98%
20
59
✓
USC −30.4
–
–
Final
Boston College@Michigan State
44%
56%
40
42
✓
MSU −1.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#13Alabama
2.3%
98%
0
73
✓
ALA −30.9
–
–
Final
Tulsa@New Mexico State
49%
51%
14
21
✓
TLSA −0.2
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
San Diego State@Washington State
28%
72%
13
36
✓
WSU −8.6
–
–
Final
Stanford@BYU
14%
86%
3
27
✓
BYU −16.3
–
–
Final
Sam Houston@Hawaii
37%
63%
20
37
✓
HAW −4.7
–
–

Sun, Sep 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
UCLA@UNLV
40%
60%
23
30
✓
UNLV −3.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 6 · 3:30 PM ET Austin Peay at #2 Georgia Georgia −54.0 >99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:00 PM ET South Carolina State at #12 South Carolina South Carolina −54.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 3:30 PM ET East Tennessee State at #15 Tennessee Tennessee −52.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 12:00 PM ET Northwestern State at Minnesota Minnesota −50.3 >99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 3:30 PM ET Grambling at #1 Ohio State Ohio State −66.9 >99%
Fri, Sep 5 · 7:30 PM ET Western Illinois at Northwestern Northwestern −36.3 99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:30 PM ET Southern Illinois at Purdue Purdue −23.9 94%
Sat, Sep 6 · 11:00 PM ET UC Davis at Washington Washington −39.5 99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 6:00 PM ET Texas Southern at California California −46.0 >99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 2:00 PM ET Western Carolina at Wake Forest Wake Forest −30.5 98%
Sat, Sep 6 · 12:00 PM ET East Texas A&M at Florida State Florida State −42.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 3:30 PM ET Gardner-Webb at #23 Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −38.6 99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:00 PM ET Bethune-Cookman at #14 Miami (FL) Miami (FL) −62.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 10:00 PM ET Weber State at Arizona Arizona −38.0 99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:00 PM ET North Carolina A&T at UCF UCF −39.3 99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 6:00 PM ET Cal Poly at Utah Utah −46.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 9:00 PM ET UT Martin at UTEP UTEP −16.5 86%
Fri, Sep 5 · 9:00 PM ET Eastern Washington at Boise State Boise State −34.5 99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:00 PM ET Northern Colorado at Colorado State Colorado State −30.1 97%
Sat, Sep 6 · 5:00 PM ET Sacramento State at Nevada Sacramento State −3.3 57%
Sat, Sep 6 · 3:00 PM ET Idaho State at New Mexico New Mexico −19.7 90%
Sat, Sep 6 · 4:00 PM ET Northern Iowa at Wyoming Wyoming −25.0 95%
Sat, Sep 6 · 3:30 PM ET Lindenwood at Appalachian State Appalachian State −28.4 97%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:30 PM ET Charleston Southern at Coastal Carolina Coastal Carolina −25.9 95%
Sat, Sep 6 · 6:00 PM ET North Carolina Central at Old Dominion Old Dominion −25.2 95%
Sun, Sep 7 · TBD McNeese at Louisiana Louisiana −28.7 97%
Sat, Sep 6 · 5:00 PM ET Jackson State at Southern Miss Southern Miss −14.8 84%
Sat, Sep 6 · 6:00 PM ET Campbell at East Carolina East Carolina −35.5 99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 6:00 PM ET Florida A&M at Florida Atlantic Florida Atlantic −18.4 89%
Sat, Sep 6 · 2:00 PM ET Howard at Temple Temple −23.9 94%
Sat, Sep 6 · 3:30 PM ET Saint Francis at Buffalo Buffalo −35.0 99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:00 PM ET Long Island University at Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan −25.5 95%
Sat, Sep 6 · 3:30 PM ET Bryant at UMass UMass −9.5 74%