The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 2025

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 53 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 15

Wilder than 15% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 16.3 expected

  • Biggest shockCincinnati over Kansas26% chance · won 37-34
  • Runner-upDuke over Syracuse27% chance · won 38-3
  • Runner-upIllinois over USC28% chance · won 34-32

Upsets

Thu, Sep 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Army@East Carolina
36%
64%
6
28
✓
ECU −6.2
–
–

Fri, Sep 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Florida State@Virginia
56%
44%
38
46
✗
FSU −2.6
–
–
Final
#21TCU@Arizona StateUpset
48%
52%
24
27
✓
ASU −1.1
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Houston@Oregon State
76%
24%
27
24
✓
HOU −11.9
–
–

Sat, Sep 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
#4Notre Dame@Arkansas
70%
30%
56
13
✓
ND −8.7
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Minnesota
48%
52%
28
31
✓
MINN −0.9
–
–
Final
#10USC@IllinoisUpset
72%
28%
32
34
✗
USC −9.7
–
–
Final
Duke@Syracuse
27%
73%
38
3
✗
SYR −10.1
–
–
Final
#25Georgia Tech@Wake Forest
85%
15%
30
29
✓
GT −17.2
–
–
Final
Louisville@Pittsburgh
58%
42%
34
27
✓
LOU −3.1
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Kansas
26%
74%
37
34
✗
KU −10.8
–
–
Final
UCF@Kansas State
47%
53%
20
34
✓
KSU −1.4
–
–
Final
South Alabama@North Texas
19%
81%
22
36
✓
UNT −14.9
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Ohio
25%
75%
20
35
✓
OHIO −11.3
–
–
Final
Utah State@#15Vanderbilt
5.7%
94%
35
55
✓
VAN −26.3
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Central Michigan
39%
61%
13
24
✓
CMU −4.8
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@James Madison
27%
73%
10
35
✓
JMU −10.5
–
–

Afternoon 19 games

Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana-Monroe
38%
62%
16
28
✓
ULM −5.3
–
–
Final
#12LSU@#8Ole Miss
35%
65%
19
24
✓
MISS −6.4
–
–
Final
#20Auburn@#11Texas A&M
26%
74%
10
16
✓
TA&M −10.7
–
–
Final
UCLA@Northwestern
33%
67%
14
17
✓
NU −7.4
–
–
Final
#1Ohio State@Washington
75%
25%
24
6
✓
OSU −10.9
–
–
Final
#16Indiana@Iowa
57%
43%
20
15
✓
IU −3.0
–
–
Final
California@Boston College
32%
68%
28
24
✗
BC −7.8
–
–
Final
Baylor@Oklahoma State
81%
19%
45
27
✓
BAY −14.6
–
–
Final
Utah@West Virginia
62%
38%
48
14
✓
UTAH −5.0
–
–
Final
UConn@Buffalo
53%
47%
20
17
✓
CONN −1.1
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Northern Illinois
53%
47%
6
3
✓
SDSU −1.1
–
–
Final
Rice@Navy
7.4%
93%
13
21
✓
NAVY −24.1
–
–
Final
Akron@Toledo
9.2%
91%
3
45
✓
TOL −22.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@New Mexico
26%
74%
20
38
✓
UNM −11.0
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Air Force
39%
61%
44
35
✗
AF −4.8
–
–
Final
Tulane@Tulsa
78%
22%
31
14
✓
TULN −12.4
–
–
Final
#14Tennessee@Mississippi State
67%
33%
41
34
✓
TENN −7.0
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Kennesaw State
34%
66%
16
24
✓
KENN −7.2
–
–
Final
Liberty@Old Dominion
16%
84%
7
21
✓
ODU −16.8
–
–

Prime time 13 games

Final
Virginia Tech@NC State
30%
70%
23
21
✗
NCSU −8.6
–
–
Final
Arizona@Iowa State
37%
63%
14
39
✓
ISU −5.8
–
–
Final
Jacksonville State@Southern Miss
59%
41%
25
42
✗
JXST −3.8
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Missouri State
45%
55%
27
22
✗
MOST −2.2
–
–
Final
Memphis@Florida Atlantic
85%
15%
55
26
✓
MEM −17.2
–
–
Final
#2Alabama@#6Georgia
45%
55%
24
21
✗
UGA −2.4
–
–
Final
UMass@#18Missouri
0.4%
>99%
6
42
✓
MIZ −44.0
–
–
Final
#3Oregon@#7Penn State
46%
54%
30
24
✗
PSU −1.8
–
–
Final
Washington State@Colorado State
38%
62%
20
3
✗
CSU −5.0
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Stanford
38%
62%
29
30
✓
STAN −5.0
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Boise State
18%
82%
14
47
✓
BOIS −15.5
–
–
Final
Kentucky@South Carolina
38%
62%
13
35
✓
SC −5.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@UTEP
55%
45%
30
11
✓
LT −2.1
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
#22BYU@Colorado
61%
39%
24
21
✓
BYU −4.5
–
–

Sun, Sep 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Marshall@Louisiana
55%
45%
51
54
✗
MRSH −2.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 27 · 3:30 PM ET Lindenwood at Miami (OH) Miami (OH) −23.6 92%
Sat, Sep 27 · 6:30 PM ET Rhode Island at Western Michigan Western Michigan −21.3 90%