The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 2025

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 70 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 55

Wilder than 55% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 11.5 expected

  • Biggest shockNew Mexico over UCLA9.8% chance · won 35-10
  • Runner-upMiddle Tennessee over Nevada16% chance · won 14-13
  • Runner-upDelaware over UConn20% chance · won 44-41

Upsets

Thu, Sep 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
NC State@Wake Forest
76%
24%
34
24
✓
NCSU −11.5
–
–

Fri, Sep 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Colorado@Houston
51%
49%
20
36
✗
COLO −0.9
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Arizona
36%
64%
17
23
✓
ARIZ −5.2
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
New Mexico@UCLAUpset
9.8%
90%
35
10
✗
UCLA −19.6
–
–

Sat, Sep 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 9 games

Final
Wisconsin@#7Alabama
14%
86%
14
38
✓
ALA −16.6
–
–
Final
#16Oklahoma@Temple
91%
9.4%
42
3
✓
OU −20.8
–
–
Final
#4Oregon@Northwestern
95%
4.6%
34
14
✓
ORE −26.7
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@#21Michigan
1.7%
98%
3
63
✓
MICH −32.7
–
–
Final
#12Clemson@Georgia TechUpset
60%
40%
21
24
✗
CLEM −4.3
–
–
Final
Memphis@Troy
68%
32%
28
7
✓
MEM −7.6
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Kent State
89%
11%
31
28
✓
BUF −19.3
–
–
Final
South Alabama@#17Auburn
5.5%
94%
15
31
✓
AUB −24.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana@#23Missouri
5.8%
94%
10
52
✓
MIZ −24.1
–
–

Afternoon 13 games

Final
UConn@DelawareUpset
80%
20%
41
44
✗
CONN −13.5
–
–
Final
#6Georgia@#13Tennessee
57%
43%
44
41
✓
UGA −3.2
–
–
Final
#8USC@Purdue
92%
7.8%
33
17
✓
USC −22.5
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Texas Tech
10%
90%
14
45
✓
TTU −19.2
–
–
Final
Washington State@North Texas
48%
52%
10
59
✓
UNT −0.1
–
–
Final
#25SMU@Missouri State
86%
14%
28
10
✓
SMU −17.3
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@West Virginia
61%
39%
24
31
✗
PITT −5.0
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Arkansas State
88%
12%
24
16
✓
ISU −18.7
–
–
Final
UTEP@#3Texas
0.4%
>99%
10
27
✓
TEX −41.2
–
–
Final
USF@#15Miami (FL)
21%
79%
12
49
✓
MIA −12.0
–
–
Final
Liberty@Bowling Green
42%
58%
13
23
✓
BGSU −2.7
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@NevadaUpset
16%
84%
14
13
✗
NEV −14.7
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@FIU
32%
68%
28
38
✓
FIU −6.6
–
–

Prime time 15 games

Final
Arkansas@#10Ole Miss
21%
79%
35
41
✓
MISS −11.8
–
–
Final
Ohio@#1Ohio State
2.9%
97%
9
37
✓
OSU −29.3
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Illinois
5.8%
94%
0
38
✓
ILL −24.0
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Virginia TechUpset
23%
77%
45
26
✗
VT −11.0
–
–
Final
Jacksonville State@Georgia Southern
50%
50%
34
41
✗
JXST −0.6
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Southern Miss
74%
26%
22
38
✗
APP −10.2
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Kentucky
2.4%
98%
23
48
✓
UK −30.6
–
–
Final
#18Florida@#9LSU
27%
73%
10
20
✓
LSU −8.8
–
–
Final
#11Texas A&M@#5Notre Dame
32%
68%
41
40
✗
ND −6.6
–
–
Final
UMass@Iowa
1.3%
99%
7
47
✓
IOWA −34.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Louisiana Tech
27%
73%
14
49
✓
LT −9.2
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Coastal Carolina
70%
30%
38
0
✓
ECU −8.4
–
–
Final
#22Vanderbilt@#19South Carolina
36%
64%
31
7
✗
SC −5.0
–
–
Final
Akron@UAB
26%
74%
28
31
✓
UAB −9.7
–
–
Final
Air Force@Utah State
59%
41%
30
49
✗
AF −3.9
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Minnesota@California
55%
45%
14
27
✗
MINN −2.4
–
–
Final
Boston College@Stanford
72%
28%
20
30
✗
BC −9.6
–
–
Final
Texas State@Arizona State
26%
74%
15
34
✓
ASU −9.4
–
–

Sun, Sep 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Duke@Tulane
24%
76%
27
34
✓
TULN −10.7
–
–
Final
Utah@Wyoming
79%
21%
31
6
✓
UTAH −13.1
–
–
Final
Navy@Tulsa
91%
9.2%
42
23
✓
NAVY −21.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 13 · 6:00 PM ET Alcorn State at Mississippi State Mississippi State −42.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 13 · 12:00 PM ET Houston Christian at #20 Nebraska Nebraska −54.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 13 · 3:30 PM ET Norfolk State at Rutgers Rutgers −49.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 13 · 3:30 PM ET Youngstown State at Michigan State Michigan State −38.3 99%
Sat, Sep 13 · 3:30 PM ET Villanova at #2 Penn State Penn State −58.7 >99%
Fri, Sep 12 · 6:30 PM ET Indiana State at #24 Indiana Indiana −52.0 >99%
Sat, Sep 13 · 12:00 PM ET Towson at Maryland Maryland −36.5 99%
Fri, Sep 12 · 7:00 PM ET Colgate at Syracuse Syracuse −39.6 99%
Sat, Sep 13 · 12:00 PM ET William & Mary at Virginia Virginia −35.8 99%
Sat, Sep 13 · 3:30 PM ET Richmond at North Carolina North Carolina −32.6 98%
Sat, Sep 13 · 12:00 PM ET Samford at Baylor Baylor −40.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 13 · 3:30 PM ET Northwestern State at Cincinnati Cincinnati −54.7 >99%
Sun, Sep 14 · TBD Abilene Christian at #14 TCU TCU −55.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 13 · 6:00 PM ET Merrimack at Kennesaw State Kennesaw State −16.0 86%
Sat, Sep 13 · 10:00 PM ET Southern at Fresno State Fresno State −23.7 94%
Sat, Sep 13 · 11:59 PM ET Portland State at Hawaii Hawaii −28.6 97%
Sat, Sep 13 · 7:00 PM ET Murray State at Georgia State Georgia State −21.3 92%
Sat, Sep 13 · 6:00 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at Marshall Marshall −33.9 99%
Sat, Sep 13 · 6:00 PM ET Monmouth at Charlotte Charlotte −10.8 77%
Sat, Sep 13 · 7:00 PM ET Prairie View A&M at Rice Rice −19.5 90%
Sat, Sep 13 · 3:30 PM ET Incarnate Word at UTSA UTSA −26.8 96%
Sat, Sep 13 · 2:00 PM ET New Hampshire at Ball State Ball State −14.8 84%
Sat, Sep 13 · 3:30 PM ET Morgan State at Toledo Toledo −42.8 >99%