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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 2025

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 74

Wilder than 74% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 15.4 expected

  • Biggest shockCalifornia over Louisville11% chance · won 29-26
  • Runner-upSam Houston over Oregon State15% chance · won 21-17
  • Runner-upWake Forest over Virginia20% chance · won 16-9

Upsets

Wed, Nov 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
UMass@Akron
19%
81%
10
44
✓
AKR −13.4
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Ohio
33%
67%
20
24
✓
OHIO −6.4
–
–

Thu, Nov 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Georgia Southern@Appalachian State
38%
62%
25
23
✗
APP −4.2
–
–
Final
UTSA@USF
22%
78%
23
55
✓
USF −11.7
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Kent State@Ball State
36%
64%
13
17
✓
BALL −5.1
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Toledo
11%
89%
3
42
✓
TOL −19.1
–
–

Fri, Nov 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
Houston@UCF
44%
56%
30
27
✗
UCF −1.9
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#10USC
8.6%
91%
17
38
✓
USC −21.5
–
–
Final
Tulane@Memphis
29%
71%
38
32
✗
MEM −8.3
–
–

Sat, Nov 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
#7Georgia@Mississippi State
77%
23%
41
21
✓
UGA −12.1
–
–
Final
#3Indiana@#21Penn State
65%
35%
27
24
✓
IU −6.6
–
–
Final
SMU@Boston College
81%
19%
45
13
✓
SMU −14.5
–
–
Final
#20BYU@#9Texas Tech
29%
71%
7
29
✓
TTU −8.5
–
–
Final
Colorado@West Virginia
50%
50%
22
29
✓
COLO −0.5
–
–
Final
James Madison@Marshall
69%
31%
35
23
✓
JMU −8.5
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Arkansas State
45%
55%
27
21
✗
ARST −1.5
–
–
Final
Temple@Army
27%
73%
13
14
✓
ARMY −9.5
–
–
Final
#1Ohio State@Purdue
98%
2.5%
34
10
✓
OSU −31.7
–
–
Final
Missouri State@Liberty
42%
58%
21
17
✗
LIB −2.6
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Eastern Michigan
49%
51%
21
27
✓
PK
–
–
Final
UAB@Rice
42%
58%
17
24
✓
RICE −2.8
–
–
Final
Maryland@Rutgers
41%
59%
20
35
✓
RUTG −3.2
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
Louisiana Tech@Delaware
68%
32%
24
25
✗
LT −8.0
–
–
Final
FIU@Middle Tennessee
52%
48%
56
30
✓
FIU −1.5
–
–
Final
Jacksonville State@UTEP
53%
46%
30
27
✓
JXST −1.9
–
–
Final
Charlotte@East Carolina
2.1%
98%
22
48
✓
ECU −32.3
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Florida Atlantic
34%
66%
21
40
✓
FAU −5.9
–
–
Final
#6Texas A&M@#22Missouri
63%
37%
38
17
✓
TA&M −5.9
–
–
Final
#5Oregon@#19Iowa
62%
38%
18
16
✓
ORE −5.2
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#11Miami (FL)
4.4%
96%
10
38
✓
MIA −27.1
–
–
Final
Duke@UConn
61%
39%
34
37
✗
DUKE −4.8
–
–
Final
Kansas@Arizona
34%
66%
20
24
✓
ARIZ −6.1
–
–
Final
Iowa State@TCU
33%
67%
20
17
✗
TCU −6.5
–
–
Final
Auburn@#15Vanderbilt
29%
71%
38
45
✓
VAN −8.4
–
–
Final
Kennesaw State@New Mexico State
63%
37%
24
21
✓
KENN −5.8
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Coastal Carolina
22%
78%
27
40
✓
CCU −11.6
–
–
Final
#24Washington@WisconsinUpset
69%
31%
10
13
✗
WASH −8.5
–
–
Final
Stanford@North Carolina
36%
64%
15
20
✓
UNC −5.2
–
–
Final
Texas State@Louisiana
55%
44%
39
42
✗
TXST −2.7
–
–
Final
Air Force@San Jose State
36%
64%
26
16
✗
SJSU −5.2
–
–

Prime time 6 games

Final
#16LSU@#4Alabama
21%
79%
9
20
✓
ALA −12.2
–
–
Final
#23Florida@KentuckyUpset
60%
40%
7
38
✗
FLA −4.5
–
–
Final
Navy@#2Notre Dame
3.3%
97%
10
49
✓
ND −29.1
–
–
Final
Nevada@Utah State
22%
78%
14
51
✓
USU −11.6
–
–
Final
Nebraska@UCLA
65%
35%
28
21
✓
NEB −6.7
–
–
Final
UNLV@Colorado State
62%
38%
42
10
✓
UNLV −5.6
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Sam Houston@Oregon StateUpset
15%
85%
21
17
✗
ORST −16.2
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Hawaii
57%
43%
6
38
✗
SDSU −3.5
–
–

Sun, Nov 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
California@LouisvilleUpset
11%
89%
29
26
✗
LOU −19.5
–
–
Final
Florida State@#25Clemson
34%
66%
10
24
✓
CLEM −5.9
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@VirginiaUpset
20%
80%
16
9
✗
UVA −12.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET The Citadel at #12 Ole Miss Ole Miss −57.4 >99%