The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 2025

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 62 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 80

Wilder than 80% of weeks in the archive.

18 upsets against 13.5 expected

  • Biggest shockSyracuse over Clemson12% chance · won 34-21
  • Runner-upSan Diego State over California16% chance · won 34-0
  • Runner-upCoastal Carolina over South Alabama18% chance · won 38-20

Upsets

Thu, Sep 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Rice@Charlotte
55%
45%
28
17
✓
RICE −1.9
–
–

Fri, Sep 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Tulsa@Oklahoma StateUpset
20%
80%
19
12
✗
OKST −13.9
–
–

Sat, Sep 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 9 games

Final
#25Arkansas@MemphisUpset
56%
44%
31
32
✗
ARK −2.5
–
–
Final
Maryland@Wisconsin
28%
72%
27
10
✗
WIS −9.6
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#14ClemsonUpset
12%
88%
34
21
✗
CLEM −19.5
–
–
Final
SMU@#24TCU
40%
60%
24
35
✓
TCU −4.5
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Louisville
10%
90%
17
40
✓
LOU −21.1
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Utah
46%
54%
34
10
✗
UTAH −1.7
–
–
Final
UNLV@Miami (OH)
62%
38%
41
38
✓
UNLV −4.8
–
–
Final
North Texas@Army
44%
56%
45
38
✗
ARMY −2.6
–
–
Final
UAB@#15Tennessee
2.6%
97%
24
56
✓
TENN −32.4
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
Oregon State@#3Oregon
1.4%
99%
7
41
✓
ORE −36.6
–
–
Final
Tulane@#11Ole Miss
13%
87%
10
45
✓
MISS −18.9
–
–
Final
#19Auburn@#13Oklahoma
32%
68%
17
24
✓
OU −7.7
–
–
Final
#16Michigan@#21Nebraska
50%
50%
30
27
✗
NEB −0.2
–
–
Final
Purdue@#4Notre Dame
3.5%
96%
30
56
✓
ND −30.1
–
–
Final
Kent State@Florida State
0.6%
99%
10
66
✓
FSU −41.4
–
–
Final
North Carolina@UCF
33%
67%
9
34
✓
UCF −7.4
–
–
Final
Ball State@UConn
9.1%
91%
25
31
✓
CONN −22.2
–
–
Final
James Madison@Liberty
60%
40%
31
13
✓
JMU −4.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Eastern Michigan
63%
37%
31
34
✗
UL −5.4
–
–
Final
Troy@Buffalo
41%
59%
21
17
✗
BUF −3.9
–
–
Final
Toledo@Western MichiganUpset
78%
22%
13
14
✗
TOL −12.4
–
–
Final
NC State@Duke
63%
37%
33
45
✗
NCSU −5.2
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Mississippi State
9.6%
90%
10
38
✓
MSST −21.7
–
–
Final
Temple@#23Georgia Tech
5.8%
94%
24
45
✓
GT −26.1
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Kansas
24%
76%
10
41
✓
KU −11.6
–
–
Final
Delaware@FIUUpset
24%
76%
38
16
✗
FIU −11.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Kennesaw State
68%
32%
21
28
✗
ARST −7.7
–
–

Prime time 15 games

Final
South Carolina@#18Missouri
30%
70%
20
29
✓
MIZ −8.8
–
–
Final
Marshall@Middle Tennessee
74%
26%
42
28
✓
MRSH −10.6
–
–
Final
Nevada@Western Kentucky
28%
72%
16
31
✓
WKU −9.8
–
–
Final
Boise State@Air Force
60%
40%
49
37
✓
BOIS −4.1
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@South AlabamaUpset
19%
82%
38
20
✗
USA −15.0
–
–
Final
#20Florida@#12Miami (FL)
29%
71%
7
26
✓
MIA −9.5
–
–
Final
Georgia State@#17Vanderbilt
1.9%
98%
21
70
✓
VAN −34.3
–
–
Final
Washington@Washington State
80%
20%
59
24
✓
WASH −14.1
–
–
Final
#22Illinois@IndianaUpset
44%
56%
10
63
✓
IU −2.4
–
–
Final
Stanford@Virginia
28%
72%
20
48
✓
UVA −10.0
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Baylor
42%
58%
27
24
✗
BAY −3.4
–
–
Final
BYU@East Carolina
64%
36%
34
13
✓
BYU −6.0
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Louisiana Tech
24%
76%
20
30
✓
LT −11.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@UTEP
36%
64%
31
25
✗
UTEP −6.2
–
–
Final
UTSA@Colorado State
68%
32%
17
16
✓
UTSA −7.5
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
Wyoming@Colorado
15%
86%
20
37
✓
COLO −17.7
–
–
Final
California@San Diego StateUpset
84%
16%
0
34
✗
CAL −16.3
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#9USC
8.3%
92%
31
45
✓
USC −23.1
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Hawaii
63%
37%
23
21
✓
FRES −5.4
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Iowa@Rutgers
43%
57%
38
28
✗
RUTG −2.9
–
–

Sun, Sep 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Sam Houston@#6Texas
0.5%
>99%
0
55
✓
TEX −42.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 20 · 7:45 PM ET SE Louisiana at #8 LSU LSU −64.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 20 · 12:00 PM ET Wofford at Virginia Tech Virginia Tech −34.0 98%
Sat, Sep 20 · 7:00 PM ET Murray State at Jacksonville State Jacksonville State −34.3 98%
Sat, Sep 20 · 7:00 PM ET UT Martin at Missouri State Missouri State −25.7 94%
Sat, Sep 20 · 5:00 PM ET Idaho at San Jose State San Jose State −16.5 84%
Sun, Sep 21 · TBD McNeese at Utah State Utah State −37.8 99%
Sat, Sep 20 · 7:00 PM ET Maine at Georgia Southern Georgia Southern −34.7 98%
Sun, Sep 21 · TBD Nicholls at Texas State Texas State −35.8 98%
Sat, Sep 20 · 12:00 PM ET South Carolina State at USF USF −43.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 20 · 6:00 PM ET Duquesne at Akron Akron −26.6 94%
Sat, Sep 20 · 1:00 PM ET Wagner at Central Michigan Central Michigan −29.1 96%
Sat, Sep 20 · 3:30 PM ET Gardner-Webb at Ohio Ohio −33.5 98%