The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 2025

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 53 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 23

Wilder than 23% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 15.2 expected

  • Biggest shockAkron over Buffalo20% chance · won 24-16
  • Runner-upRice over UConn24% chance · won 37-34
  • Runner-upWake Forest over SMU25% chance · won 13-12

Upsets

Tue, Oct 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Kennesaw State@FIU
41%
59%
45
26
✗
FIU −3.1
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Louisiana Tech
34%
66%
28
27
✗
LT −5.9
–
–

Wed, Oct 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Middle Tennessee@Delaware
22%
78%
28
31
✓
DEL −11.6
–
–
Final
Missouri State@New Mexico State
60%
40%
24
17
✓
MOST −4.6
–
–

Thu, Oct 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
South Alabama@Georgia State
59%
41%
38
31
✓
USA −4.0
–
–

Fri, Oct 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
North Texas@Charlotte
92%
7.6%
54
20
✓
UNT −23.3
–
–
Final
California@Virginia Tech
37%
63%
34
42
✓
VT −4.8
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Boise State@Nevada
90%
9.7%
24
3
✓
BOIS −21.2
–
–

Sat, Oct 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
#12Ole Miss@#11Oklahoma
40%
60%
34
26
✗
OU −3.7
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Nebraska
25%
75%
21
28
✓
NEB −10.4
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Purdue
57%
43%
27
24
✓
RUTG −3.4
–
–
Final
UCLA@#8Indiana
6.7%
93%
6
56
✓
IU −23.6
–
–
Final
#24SMU@Wake ForestUpset
75%
25%
12
13
✗
SMU −11.1
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Georgia Tech
14%
86%
16
41
✓
GT −16.6
–
–
Final
Virginia@North Carolina
73%
27%
17
16
✓
UVA −10.1
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Kansas
38%
62%
42
17
✗
KU −4.2
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Old Dominion
22%
78%
21
24
✓
ODU −11.6
–
–
Final
USF@Memphis
47%
53%
31
34
✓
MEM −0.9
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Kent State
70%
30%
21
24
✗
BGSU −8.6
–
–
Final
Ohio@Eastern Michigan
77%
23%
28
21
✓
OHIO −12.5
–
–
Final
#25Auburn@Arkansas
49%
51%
33
24
✗
AUB −0.1
–
–
Final
Akron@BuffaloUpset
20%
80%
24
16
✗
BUF −13.0
–
–

Afternoon 20 games

Final
UConn@RiceUpset
76%
24%
34
37
✗
CONN −11.7
–
–
Final
Utah State@New Mexico
48%
52%
14
33
✓
UNM −0.3
–
–
Final
#3Alabama@South Carolina
76%
24%
29
22
✓
ALA −11.9
–
–
Final
#18Missouri@#15Vanderbilt
37%
63%
10
17
✓
VAN −4.8
–
–
Final
Illinois@Washington
40%
60%
25
42
✓
WASH −3.7
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#23Iowa
21%
78%
3
41
✓
IOWA −12.2
–
–
Final
Toledo@Washington State
55%
45%
7
28
✗
TOL −2.5
–
–
Final
NC State@Pittsburgh
28%
72%
34
53
✓
PITT −8.7
–
–
Final
#22BYU@Iowa State
49%
51%
41
27
✗
BYU −0.1
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Fresno State
46%
54%
23
0
✗
FRES −1.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Southern Miss
27%
73%
21
49
✓
USM −9.2
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Navy
9.3%
91%
32
42
✓
NAVY −20.8
–
–
Final
Temple@Tulsa
66%
34%
38
37
✓
TEM −7.3
–
–
Final
Ball State@Northern Illinois
32%
68%
7
21
✓
NIU −6.7
–
–
Final
UMass@Central Michigan
14%
86%
13
38
✓
CMU −16.9
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Miami (OH)
40%
60%
17
26
✓
M-OH −3.4
–
–
Final
Baylor@Cincinnati
41%
59%
20
41
✓
CIN −3.2
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#13Texas Tech
1.1%
99%
0
42
✓
TTU −36.3
–
–
Final
#7Texas@Mississippi State
76%
24%
45
38
✓
TEX −11.6
–
–
Final
TCU@West Virginia
82%
18%
23
17
✓
TCU −14.9
–
–

Prime time 9 games

Final
Wisconsin@#4Oregon
3.9%
96%
7
21
✓
ORE −27.9
–
–
Final
Stanford@#10Miami (FL)
3.7%
96%
7
42
✓
MIA −28.3
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Arkansas State
45%
55%
24
34
✓
ARST −1.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Troy
23%
77%
23
35
✓
TROY −11.3
–
–
Final
#6Texas A&M@#14LSU
50%
50%
49
25
✓
TA&M −0.6
–
–
Final
#16Michigan@Michigan State
82%
18%
31
20
✓
MICH −15.3
–
–
Final
Boston College@Louisville
8.0%
92%
24
38
✓
LOU −22.1
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Wyoming
38%
62%
0
28
✓
WYO −4.2
–
–
Final
#19Tennessee@Kentucky
65%
35%
56
34
✓
TENN −6.5
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Colorado@#21Utah
22%
78%
7
53
✓
UTAH −11.7
–
–

Sun, Oct 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Houston@Arizona State
28%
72%
24
16
✗
ASU −8.7
–
–