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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 13 slate, 2025

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 64 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 15

Wilder than 15% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 16.5 expected

  • Biggest shockTulsa over Army15% chance · won 26-25
  • Runner-upNevada over Wyoming27% chance · won 13-7
  • Runner-upAkron over Bowling Green33% chance · won 19-16

Upsets

Wed, Nov 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Akron@Bowling Green
33%
67%
19
16
✗
BGSU −6.6
–
–
Final
UMass@Ohio
2.2%
98%
14
42
✓
OHIO −32.1
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Northern Illinois
59%
41%
35
19
✓
WMU −4.0
–
–

Thu, Nov 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Louisiana@Arkansas State
39%
61%
34
30
✗
ARST −3.8
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Miami (OH)@Buffalo
53%
47%
37
20
✓
M-OH −1.7
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Kent State
65%
35%
28
16
✓
CMU −6.5
–
–

Fri, Nov 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Florida State@NC State
57%
42%
11
21
✗
FSU −3.5
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Hawaii@UNLV
35%
65%
10
38
✓
UNLV −5.8
–
–

Sat, Nov 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 16 games

Final
#22Missouri@#14Oklahoma
29%
71%
6
17
✓
OU −8.4
–
–
Final
MinnesotavsNorthwestern
47%
53%
35
38
✓
NU −0.9
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#1Ohio State
2.1%
98%
9
42
✓
OSU −32.3
–
–
Final
Louisville@#23SMU
32%
68%
6
38
✓
SMU −7.1
–
–
Final
#9Miami (FL)@Virginia Tech
89%
11%
34
17
✓
MIA −20.0
–
–
Final
Delaware@Wake Forest
9.5%
90%
14
52
✓
WAKE −20.6
–
–
Final
Kansas@Iowa State
33%
67%
14
38
✓
ISU −6.6
–
–
Final
Tulsa@ArmyUpset
15%
85%
26
25
✗
ARMY −16.3
–
–
Final
Charlotte@#3Georgia
<0.1%
>99%
3
35
✓
UGA −53.4
–
–
Final
Washington State@James Madison
22%
78%
20
24
✓
JMU −12.0
–
–
Final
Baylor@Arizona
34%
66%
17
41
✓
ARIZ −6.3
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Georgia Southern
66%
34%
45
10
✓
ODU −6.9
–
–
Final
Missouri State@Kennesaw State
45%
55%
34
41
✓
KENN −1.5
–
–
Final
Nevada@Wyoming
28%
72%
13
7
✗
WYO −9.1
–
–
Final
Ball State@Toledo
3.3%
97%
9
38
✓
TOL −29.1
–
–
Final
Marshall@Appalachian State
56%
44%
24
26
✗
MRSH −3.1
–
–

Afternoon 22 games

Final
UConn@Florida Atlantic
65%
35%
48
45
✓
CONN −6.7
–
–
Final
Liberty@Louisiana Tech
33%
67%
28
34
✓
LT −6.6
–
–
Final
Sam Houston@Middle Tennessee
45%
55%
17
31
✓
MTSU −1.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@UTEP
35%
65%
34
31
✗
UTEP −5.6
–
–
Final
USF@UAB
91%
8.7%
48
18
✓
USF −22.1
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#13Texas
18%
82%
37
52
✓
TEX −14.1
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#15Vanderbilt
20%
80%
17
45
✓
VAN −13.2
–
–
Final
#10USC@#5Oregon
31%
69%
27
42
✓
ORE −7.6
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#19Iowa
8.6%
91%
17
20
✓
IOWA −21.5
–
–
Final
Duke@North Carolina
61%
39%
32
25
✓
DUKE −4.9
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#2Notre Dame
1.1%
99%
7
70
✓
ND −36.3
–
–
Final
Jacksonville State@FIU
47%
53%
21
27
✓
FIU −0.6
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@South Alabama
43%
57%
35
42
✓
USA −2.5
–
–
Final
East Carolina@UTSA
53%
47%
24
58
✗
ECU −1.6
–
–
Final
Tulane@Temple
67%
33%
37
13
✓
TULN −7.5
–
–
Final
#20Michigan@Maryland
75%
25%
45
20
✓
MICH −11.4
–
–
Final
TCU@Houston
51%
49%
17
14
✓
TCU −0.7
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@UCF
13%
87%
14
17
✓
UCF −17.8
–
–
Final
Kansas State@#11Utah
15%
85%
47
51
✓
UTAH −16.2
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Troy
18%
82%
19
31
✓
TROY −14.4
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@South Carolina
6.6%
93%
7
51
✓
SC −23.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Texas State
11%
89%
14
31
✓
TXST −19.3
–
–

Prime time 7 games

Final
#18Tennessee@Florida
54%
46%
31
11
✓
TENN −2.0
–
–
Final
Illinois@Wisconsin
66%
34%
10
27
✗
ILL −6.9
–
–
Final
California@Stanford
47%
53%
10
31
✓
STAN −0.9
–
–
Final
North Texas@Rice
86%
14%
56
24
✓
UNT −17.5
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@#21LSU
4.9%
95%
10
13
✓
LSU −26.1
–
–
Final
#16BYU@Cincinnati
63%
37%
26
14
✓
BYU −5.9
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Colorado
60%
40%
42
17
✓
ASU −4.7
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
#25Washington@UCLA
73%
27%
48
14
✓
WASH −10.4
–
–
Final
Utah State@Fresno State
33%
67%
28
17
✗
FRES −6.5
–
–
Final
San Jose State@San Diego State
19%
81%
3
25
✓
SDSU −13.5
–
–

Sun, Nov 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
Nebraska@#17Penn State
25%
75%
10
37
✓
PSU −10.4
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Georgia Tech
39%
61%
42
28
✗
GT −3.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Air Force
38%
62%
20
3
✗
AF −4.5
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Boise State
8.9%
91%
21
49
✓
BOIS −21.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 22 · 2:00 PM ET Eastern Illinois at #6 Alabama Alabama −59.1 >99%
Sat, Nov 22 · 2:00 PM ET Mercer at Auburn Auburn −47.9 >99%
Sat, Nov 22 · 12:00 PM ET Samford at #7 Texas A&M Texas A&M −58.6 >99%
Sat, Nov 22 · 4:30 PM ET Furman at #24 Clemson Clemson −45.3 >99%