The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 2025

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 85

Wilder than 85% of weeks in the archive.

18 upsets against 14.6 expected

  • Biggest shockFresno State over Boise State10.0% chance · won 30-7
  • Runner-upWest Virginia over Houston17% chance · won 45-35
  • Runner-upKentucky over Auburn19% chance · won 10-3

Upsets

Wed, Oct 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Jacksonville State@Middle Tennessee
67%
33%
24
21
✓
JXST −7.5
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
UTEP@Kennesaw State
29%
71%
20
33
✓
KENN −8.2
–
–
Final
James Madison@Texas State
55%
45%
52
20
✓
JMU −2.4
–
–

Thu, Oct 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Marshall@Coastal Carolina
62%
38%
27
44
✗
MRSH −5.3
–
–
Final
Tulane@UTSA
54%
46%
26
48
✗
TULN −2.2
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
FIU@Missouri State
25%
75%
21
28
✓
MOST −10.2
–
–

Fri, Oct 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Memphis@Rice
86%
14%
38
14
✓
MEM −17.9
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Syracuse
30%
70%
27
10
✗
SYR −7.9
–
–

Sat, Nov 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
#15Vanderbilt@#8Texas
30%
70%
31
34
✓
TEX −8.1
–
–
Final
#19Penn State@#1Ohio State
12%
88%
14
38
✓
OSU −18.4
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Illinois
23%
77%
13
35
✓
ILL −11.5
–
–
Final
Duke@#23ClemsonUpset
21%
79%
46
45
✗
CLEM −12.3
–
–
Final
#9Miami (FL)@SMUUpset
62%
38%
20
26
✗
MIA −5.3
–
–
Final
UCF@Baylor
34%
66%
3
30
✓
BAY −6.2
–
–
Final
West Virginia@HoustonUpset
17%
83%
45
35
✗
HOU −14.8
–
–
Final
UAB@UConn
17%
83%
19
38
✓
CONN −14.8
–
–
Final
Army@Air Force
51%
49%
20
17
✓
ARMY −1.0
–
–
Final
Navy@North Texas
36%
64%
17
31
✓
UNT −5.0
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Bowling Green
39%
61%
28
3
✗
BGSU −3.9
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Iowa State
37%
63%
24
19
✗
ISU −4.9
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Temple
60%
40%
45
14
✓
ECU −4.5
–
–

Afternoon 17 games

Final
Louisville@Virginia Tech
72%
28%
28
16
✓
LOU −9.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico@UNLVUpset
24%
76%
40
35
✗
UNLV −11.0
–
–
Final
#5GeorgiavsFlorida
75%
25%
24
20
✓
UGA −11.3
–
–
Final
#7Indiana@Maryland
82%
18%
55
10
✓
IU −15.2
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Minnesota
30%
70%
20
23
✓
MINN −8.0
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Stanford
76%
24%
35
20
✓
PITT −11.6
–
–
Final
#2Notre Dame@Boston College
97%
2.8%
25
10
✓
ND −30.9
–
–
Final
#12Texas Tech@Kansas State
62%
38%
43
20
✓
TTU −5.5
–
–
Final
Delaware@Liberty
34%
66%
30
59
✓
LIB −6.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Western Kentucky
22%
78%
16
35
✓
WKU −11.9
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Boise StateUpset
10.0%
90%
30
7
✗
BOIS −20.1
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Louisiana-Monroe
74%
26%
31
6
✓
ODU −10.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana@South Alabama
35%
65%
31
22
✗
USA −5.8
–
–
Final
Virginia@California
65%
35%
31
21
✓
UVA −6.6
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Arkansas
35%
65%
38
35
✗
ARK −5.6
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Kansas
6.4%
94%
21
38
✓
KU −24.0
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Western Michigan
29%
71%
21
24
✓
WMU −8.3
–
–

Prime time 10 games

Final
South Carolina@#11Ole Miss
19%
81%
14
30
✓
MISS −13.7
–
–
Final
Purdue@#14Michigan
5.2%
95%
16
21
✓
MICH −25.7
–
–
Final
Arizona@Colorado
45%
55%
52
17
✗
COLO −1.6
–
–
Final
Wyoming@San Diego State
25%
75%
7
24
✓
SDSU −10.5
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#24AuburnUpset
19%
82%
10
3
✗
AUB −13.8
–
–
Final
#13Oklahoma@#16Tennessee
42%
58%
33
27
✗
TENN −2.6
–
–
Final
#10USC@Nebraska
66%
34%
21
17
✓
USC −7.0
–
–
Final
Washington State@Oregon State
65%
35%
7
10
✗
WSU −6.4
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Florida State
22%
78%
7
42
✓
FSU −11.8
–
–
Final
#25Georgia Tech@NC StateUpset
67%
33%
36
48
✗
GT −7.5
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Cincinnati@#17Utah
24%
76%
14
45
✓
UTAH −10.6
–
–
Final
Hawaii@San Jose State
42%
58%
38
45
✓
SJSU −2.9
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Sam Houston@Louisiana Tech
15%
85%
14
55
✓
LT −16.3
–
–

Sun, Nov 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Arkansas State@TroyUpset
25%
75%
23
10
✗
TROY −10.5
–
–