Week 12 slate, 2025

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 59 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

No games match.

Tue, Nov 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final

Kent State@Akron

26%
74%

42
35

✗

AKR −9.6

–

–

Final

Ohio@Western Michigan

52%
48%

13
17

✗

OHIO −1.3

–

–

Thu, Nov 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final

Troy@Old Dominion

28%
72%

0
33

✓

ODU −9.0

–

–

Time TBD 3 games

Final

Buffalo@Central Michigan

45%
55%

19
38

✓

CMU −1.5

–

–

Final

Northern Illinois@UMass

71%
29%

45
3

✓

NIU −9.2

–

–

Final

Toledo@Miami (OH)

59%
41%

24
3

✓

TOL −4.0

–

–

Fri, Nov 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final

#23Clemson@Louisville

48%
52%

20
19

✗

LOU −0.4

–

–

Final

Minnesota@#7Oregon

5.8%
94%

13
42

✓

ORE −24.8

–

–

Sat, Nov 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final

South Carolina@#3Texas A&M

11%
89%

30
31

✓

TA&M −19.4

–

–

Final

Wisconsin@#5Indiana

4.9%
95%

7
31

✓

IU −26.2

–

–

Final

#17MichiganvsNorthwestern

80%
20%

24
22

✓

MICH −13.8

–

–

Final

#2Notre Dame@Pittsburgh

80%
20%

37
15

✓

ND −13.9

–

–

Final

Arizona@Cincinnati

42%
58%

30
24

✗

CIN −2.8

–

–

Final

Kansas State@Oklahoma State

88%
12%

14
6

✓

KSU −19.2

–

–

Final

Air Force@UConn

29%
71%

16
26

✓

CONN −8.3

–

–

Final

UTSA@Charlotte

88%
12%

28
7

✓

UTSA −19.3

–

–

Final

USF@Navy

64%
36%

38
41

✗

USF −6.0

–

–

Final

Eastern Michigan@Ball State

48%
52%

24
9

✗

BALL −0.3

–

–

Final

Arkansas@#19LSU

24%
76%

22
23

✓

LSU −10.9

–

–

Final

Oregon State@Tulsa

56%
44%

14
31

✗

ORST −3.0

–

–

Final

West Virginia@Arizona State

16%
84%

23
25

✓

ASU −15.3

–

–

Final

Marshall@Georgia State

71%
29%

30
18

✓

MRSH −9.2

–

–

Final

North Texas@UAB

84%
16%

53
24

✓

UNT −16.6

–

–

Afternoon 21 games

Final

UTEP@Missouri State

25%
75%

24
38

✓

MOST −10.2

–

–

Final

Colorado State@New Mexico

25%
75%

17
20

✓

UNM −10.5

–

–

Final

#14Oklahoma@#4AlabamaUpset

25%
75%

23
21

✗

ALA −10.3

–

–

Final

#20Penn State@Michigan State

78%
22%

28
10

✓

PSU −13.1

–

–

Final

Maryland@Illinois

17%
83%

6
24

✓

ILL −14.8

–

–

Final

#18Iowa@#10USC

29%
71%

21
26

✓

USC −8.4

–

–

Final

Georgia Tech@Boston College

80%
20%

36
34

✓

GT −14.2

–

–

Final

Virginia@Duke

41%
59%

34
17

✗

DUKE −3.1

–

–

Final

NC State@#11Miami (FL)

11%
89%

7
41

✓

MIA −19.5

–

–

Final

UCF@#8Texas Tech

7.0%
93%

9
48

✓

TTU −23.2

–

–

Final

Middle Tennessee@Western Kentucky

13%
87%

26
42

✓

WKU −17.7

–

–

Final

San Jose State@Nevada

69%
31%

10
55

✗

SJSU −8.5

–

–

Final

Appalachian State@James Madison

10%
90%

10
58

✓

JMU −20.0

–

–

Final

South Alabama@Louisiana-Monroe

57%
43%

26
14

✓

USA −3.2

–

–

Final

Texas State@Southern Miss

43%
57%

41
14

✗

USM −2.4

–

–

Final

Memphis@East Carolina

45%
55%

27
31

✓

ECU −1.4

–

–

Final

Florida Atlantic@Tulane

12%
88%

24
35

✓

TULN −18.7

–

–

Final

New Mexico State@#16Tennessee

0.9%
99%

9
42

✓

TENN −37.6

–

–

Final

North Carolina@Wake Forest

33%
67%

12
28

✓

WAKE −6.7

–

–

Final

Liberty@FIU

47%
53%

27
34

✓

FIU −0.6

–

–

Final

Coastal Carolina@Georgia Southern

40%
60%

40
45

✓

GASO −3.6

–

–

Prime time 5 games

Final

#9Texas@#6Georgia

33%
67%

10
35

✓

UGA −6.4

–

–

Final

UCLA@#1Ohio State

1.4%
99%

10
48

✓

OSU −35.0

–

–

Final

Virginia Tech@Florida State

17%
83%

14
34

✓

FSU −14.6

–

–

Final

Mississippi State@#24Missouri

26%
74%

27
49

✓

MIZ −9.8

–

–

Final

Kennesaw State@Jacksonville State

41%
59%

26
35

✓

JXST −3.0

–

–

Late night 4 games

Final

Louisiana Tech@Washington State

30%
70%

3
28

✓

WSU −7.8

–

–

Final

TCU@#22BYU

32%
68%

13
44

✓

BYU −6.9

–

–

Final

Boise State@San Diego State

59%
41%

7
17

✗

BOIS −4.2

–

–

Final

Wyoming@Fresno State

32%
68%

3
24

✓

FRES −7.0

–

–

Sun, Nov 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final

Florida@#12Ole Miss

22%
78%

24
34

✓

MISS −11.9

–

–

Final

Purdue@Washington

12%
88%

13
49

✓

WASH −18.5

–

–

Final

#13Utah@Baylor

64%
36%

55
28

✓

UTAH −6.4

–

–

Final

DelawarevsSam Houston

60%
40%

23
26

✗

DEL −4.3

–

–

Final

Utah State@UNLV

27%
73%

26
29

✓

UNLV −9.2

–

–

Against FCS opponents

When	Game	Model	Win
Sat, Nov 15 · 1:30 PM ET	Tennessee Tech at Kentucky	Kentucky −44.3	>99%