The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 2025

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 56 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 59

Wilder than 59% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 17.3 expected

  • Biggest shockNorthwestern over Penn State9.3% chance · won 22-21
  • Runner-upBowling Green over Toledo25% chance · won 28-23
  • Runner-upKennesaw State over Louisiana Tech25% chance · won 35-7

Upsets

Wed, Oct 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Missouri State@Middle Tennessee
73%
27%
22
20
✓
MOST −10.2
–
–

Thu, Oct 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Louisiana Tech@Kennesaw State
75%
25%
7
35
✗
LT −11.0
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Tulane
38%
62%
19
26
✓
TULN −5.1
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Liberty@UTEP
43%
57%
19
8
✗
UTEP −3.0
–
–

Fri, Oct 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
USF@North Texas
49%
51%
63
36
✗
UNT −0.5
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Washington
30%
70%
19
38
✓
WASH −8.9
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Colorado State
70%
30%
21
49
✗
FRES −8.5
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Jacksonville StatevsSam Houston
71%
29%
29
27
✓
JXST −9.0
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Georgia Southern
39%
61%
38
35
✗
GASO −4.8
–
–

Sat, Oct 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
#3Alabama@#19Missouri
66%
34%
27
24
✓
ALA −6.9
–
–
Final
UCLA@Michigan State
29%
71%
38
13
✗
MSU −9.1
–
–
Final
#1Ohio State@Illinois
79%
21%
34
16
✓
OSU −13.3
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Florida State
32%
68%
34
31
✗
FSU −8.0
–
–
Final
Stanford@SMU
11%
89%
10
34
✓
SMU −20.3
–
–
Final
UCF@Cincinnati
31%
69%
11
20
✓
CIN −8.4
–
–
Final
Houston@Oklahoma State
75%
25%
39
17
✓
HOU −10.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana@James Madison
18%
82%
14
24
✓
JMU −15.6
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Army
8.9%
91%
7
24
✓
ARMY −22.5
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Akron
68%
32%
20
7
✓
M-OH −7.8
–
–
Final
Toledo@Bowling GreenUpset
75%
25%
23
28
✗
TOL −11.1
–
–
Final
Washington State@#8Ole Miss
2.4%
98%
21
24
✓
MISS −32.9
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Eastern Michigan
53%
47%
10
16
✗
NIU −1.1
–
–
Final
UMass@Kent State
45%
55%
6
42
✓
KENT −2.4
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
#12Oklahomavs#9Texas
45%
55%
6
23
✓
TEX −2.2
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#15Penn StateUpset
9.3%
91%
22
21
✗
PSU −22.0
–
–
Final
#25Nebraska@Maryland
62%
38%
34
31
✓
NEB −5.0
–
–
Final
#13Indiana@#4Oregon
27%
73%
30
20
✗
ORE −10.2
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Georgia Tech
17%
83%
20
35
✓
GT −15.8
–
–
Final
NC State@#2Notre Dame
5.2%
95%
7
36
✓
ND −27.1
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Oregon State
53%
47%
39
14
✓
WAKE −1.0
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Colorado
56%
44%
17
24
✗
ISU −2.6
–
–
Final
#23TCU@Kansas StateUpset
62%
38%
28
41
✗
TCU −4.8
–
–
Final
Air Force@UNLV
23%
77%
48
51
✓
UNLV −12.3
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Georgia State
50%
50%
41
20
✓
GAST −0.1
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Marshall
66%
34%
24
48
✗
ODU −6.8
–
–
Final
Ball State@Western Michigan
20%
80%
0
42
✓
WMU −13.9
–
–
Final
Navy@Temple
72%
28%
32
31
✓
NAVY −9.4
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#17Tennessee
24%
76%
31
34
✓
TENN −11.8
–
–
Final
UAB@Florida Atlantic
42%
58%
33
53
✓
FAU −3.3
–
–

Prime time 12 games

Final
#22Florida@#6Texas A&M
24%
76%
17
34
✓
TA&M −11.6
–
–
Final
Iowa@Wisconsin
56%
44%
37
0
✓
IOWA −2.6
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Wyoming
53%
47%
28
35
✗
SJSU −1.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Coastal Carolina
48%
52%
8
23
✓
CCU −0.9
–
–
Final
#5Georgia@#20Auburn
62%
38%
20
10
✓
UGA −4.9
–
–
Final
Purdue@Minnesota
29%
71%
20
27
✓
MINN −9.5
–
–
Final
#14Michigan@#11USC
37%
63%
13
31
✓
USC −5.6
–
–
Final
#21Clemson@Boston College
79%
21%
41
10
✓
CLEM −13.4
–
–
Final
Kansas@#16Texas Tech
26%
74%
17
42
✓
TTU −11.0
–
–
Final
Rice@UTSA
19%
81%
13
61
✓
UTSA −14.9
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#10LSU
25%
75%
10
20
✓
LSU −11.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Boise State
13%
87%
25
41
✓
BOIS −18.5
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Arizona State@Utah
45%
55%
10
42
✓
UTAH −2.3
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Nevada
60%
40%
44
10
✓
SDSU −4.1
–
–
Final
Utah State@Hawaii
49%
51%
26
44
✓
HAW −0.6
–
–

Sun, Oct 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
#24BYU@Arizona
60%
40%
33
27
✓
BYU −3.9
–
–
Final
Troy@Texas State
27%
73%
48
41
✗
TXST −10.2
–
–