The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 14 slate, 2025

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 67 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 23

Wilder than 23% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 19.1 expected

  • Biggest shockCalifornia over SMU15% chance · won 38-35
  • Runner-upGeorgia Southern over Marshall26% chance · won 24-19
  • Runner-upKent State over Northern Illinois26% chance · won 35-31

Upsets

Tue, Nov 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Bowling Green@UMass
77%
23%
45
14
✓
BGSU −12.5
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Western Michigan@Eastern Michigan
65%
35%
31
21
✓
WMU −6.5
–
–

Thu, Nov 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Navy@Memphis
31%
70%
28
17
✗
MEM −7.7
–
–

Fri, Nov 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 5 games

Final
#14Ole Miss@Mississippi State
73%
27%
38
19
✓
MISS −10.0
–
–
Final
#21Iowa@Nebraska
58%
42%
40
16
✓
IOWA −3.5
–
–
Final
#13Utah@Kansas
75%
25%
31
21
✓
UTAH −11.2
–
–
Final
Ohio@Buffalo
65%
35%
31
26
✓
OHIO −6.5
–
–
Final
Kent State@Northern Illinois
26%
74%
35
31
✗
NIU −9.7
–
–

Afternoon 5 games

Final
Air Force@Colorado State
53%
47%
42
21
✓
AF −1.7
–
–
Final
#5GeorgiavsGeorgia Tech
82%
18%
16
9
✓
UGA −15.2
–
–
Final
San Diego State@New Mexico
54%
46%
17
23
✗
SDSU −2.1
–
–
Final
Temple@North Texas
9.3%
91%
25
52
✓
UNT −20.8
–
–
Final
Boise State@Utah State
64%
36%
25
24
✓
BOIS −6.3
–
–

Prime time 3 games

Final
#7Texas A&M@#12Texas
50%
50%
17
27
✓
TA&M −0.4
–
–
Final
#4Indiana@Purdue
94%
5.6%
56
3
✓
IU −25.8
–
–
Final
Arizona@Arizona State
42%
58%
23
7
✗
ASU −2.6
–
–

Sat, Nov 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 19 games

Final
Kentucky@Louisville
34%
66%
0
41
✓
LOU −6.2
–
–
Final
#25Clemson@South Carolina
42%
58%
28
14
✗
SC −2.6
–
–
Final
#1Ohio State@#19Michigan
75%
25%
27
9
✓
OSU −11.3
–
–
Final
#9Miami (FL)@Pittsburgh
65%
35%
38
7
✓
MIA −6.5
–
–
Final
Houston@Baylor
37%
63%
31
24
✗
BAY −4.8
–
–
Final
Colorado@Kansas State
19%
81%
14
24
✓
KSU −13.5
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Oklahoma State
88%
12%
20
13
✓
ISU −19.3
–
–
Final
#8Texas Tech@West Virginia
91%
9.3%
49
0
✓
TTU −21.6
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Florida Atlantic
73%
27%
42
3
✓
ECU −10.1
–
–
Final
Toledo@Central Michigan
75%
25%
21
3
✓
TOL −11.2
–
–
Final
Ball State@Miami (OH)
9.7%
90%
24
45
✓
M-OH −20.4
–
–
Final
UCF@#17BYU
9.1%
91%
21
41
✓
BYU −20.9
–
–
Final
UTEP@Delaware
43%
57%
31
61
✓
DEL −2.3
–
–
Final
FIUvsSam Houston
71%
29%
56
16
✓
FIU −9.3
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Marshall
26%
74%
24
19
✗
MRSH −9.9
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Jacksonville State
50%
50%
34
37
✓
WKU −0.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Missouri State
40%
60%
42
30
✗
MOST −3.3
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Old Dominion
5.4%
95%
10
27
✓
ODU −25.4
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Appalachian State
42%
58%
30
29
✗
APP −2.9
–
–

Afternoon 19 games

Final
Boston College@Syracuse
38%
62%
34
12
✗
SYR −4.6
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@New Mexico State
31%
69%
31
24
✗
NMSU −7.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Louisiana
20%
80%
27
30
✓
UL −12.9
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Texas State
24%
76%
26
49
✓
TXST −10.6
–
–
Final
UAB@Tulsa
35%
65%
31
24
✗
TLSA −5.7
–
–
Final
#23Missouri@Arkansas
53%
47%
31
17
✓
MIZ −1.8
–
–
Final
#24LSU@#11Oklahoma
26%
74%
13
17
✓
OU −9.6
–
–
Final
#15Vanderbilt@#18Tennessee
43%
57%
45
24
✗
TENN −2.3
–
–
Final
#3Oregon@#22Washington
66%
34%
26
14
✓
ORE −7.0
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Minnesota
45%
55%
7
17
✓
MINN −1.3
–
–
Final
#16Penn State@Rutgers
76%
24%
40
36
✓
PSU −11.8
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Duke
35%
65%
32
49
✓
DUKE −5.7
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@TCU
33%
67%
23
45
✓
TCU −6.4
–
–
Final
Kennesaw State@Liberty
44%
56%
48
42
✗
LIB −1.9
–
–
Final
Troy@Southern Miss
45%
55%
28
18
✗
USM −1.5
–
–
Final
Army@UTSA
27%
73%
27
24
✗
UTSA −9.5
–
–
Final
James Madison@Coastal Carolina
83%
17%
59
10
✓
JMU −15.8
–
–
Final
Florida State@Florida
42%
58%
21
40
✓
FLA −2.8
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Washington State
14%
86%
8
32
✓
WSU −16.5
–
–

Prime time 7 games

Final
#6Alabama@Auburn
69%
31%
27
20
✓
ALA −8.3
–
–
Final
UCLA@#10USC
5.4%
95%
10
29
✓
USC −25.3
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Illinois
24%
76%
13
20
✓
ILL −11.1
–
–
Final
North Carolina@NC State
21%
79%
19
42
✓
NCSU −12.6
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Tulane
2.4%
98%
0
27
✓
TULN −31.3
–
–
Final
#20SMU@CaliforniaUpset
84%
16%
35
38
✗
SMU −16.7
–
–
Final
UNLV@Nevada
74%
26%
42
17
✓
UNLV −10.7
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
#2Notre Dame@Stanford
97%
3.3%
49
20
✓
ND −29.8
–
–
Final
Fresno State@San Jose State
56%
44%
41
14
✓
FRES −3.0
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Hawaii
26%
74%
7
27
✓
HAW −9.6
–
–

Sun, Nov 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
MarylandvsMichigan State
49%
51%
28
38
✓
MSU −0.1
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Virginia
19%
81%
7
27
✓
UVA −13.4
–
–
Final
Rice@USF
3.0%
97%
3
52
✓
USF −29.9
–
–