The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 1987

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 47 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 79

Wilder than 79% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 13.8 expected

  • Biggest shockLehigh over Navy14% chance · won 24-9
  • Runner-upUtah over Wisconsin19% chance · won 31-28
  • Runner-upTemple over Pittsburgh19% chance · won 24-21

Upsets

Sat, Sep 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 43 games

Final
San Diego State@Air Force
42%
58%
7
49
✓
AF −3.4
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Akron
48%
52%
16
17
✓
AKR −1.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico@#20Arizona
11%
89%
9
20
✓
ARIZ −20.7
–
–
Final
Pacific@#10Arizona State
0.8%
99%
12
31
✓
ASU −40.3
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#16Arkansas
9.5%
90%
15
30
✓
ARK −21.8
–
–
Final
Army@Kansas State
52%
48%
41
14
✓
ARMY −0.8
–
–
Final
Baylor@UNLV
68%
32%
21
14
✓
BAY −7.4
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Ball State
29%
71%
24
0
✗
BALL −9.4
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Cal State Fullerton
72%
28%
12
31
✗
Long Beach State −9.7
–
–
Final
#19Georgia@#23Clemson
42%
58%
20
21
✓
CLEM −3.3
–
–
Final
Stanford@Colorado
50%
50%
17
31
✓
COLO −0.3
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Duke
30%
70%
31
35
✓
DUKE −8.7
–
–
Final
#15Florida@#3AlabamaUpset
25%
75%
23
14
✗
ALA −11.3
–
–
Final
Memphis@#4Florida State
2.8%
97%
24
41
✓
FSU −31.8
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Illinois
38%
62%
10
20
✓
ILL −5.3
–
–
Final
#17Iowa@Iowa State
78%
22%
48
9
✓
IOWA −12.8
–
–
Final
Kent State@Kansas
58%
42%
31
17
✓
KENT −3.2
–
–
Final
Indiana@Kentucky
34%
66%
15
34
✓
UK −7.0
–
–
Final
Rice@#11LSU
2.5%
98%
16
49
✓
LSU −32.6
–
–
Final
Purdue@Louisville
60%
40%
22
22
✓
PUR −4.2
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Maryland
34%
66%
20
25
✓
MD −7.1
–
–
Final
Washington State@#24Michigan
32%
68%
18
44
✓
MICH −8.1
–
–
Final
California@Minnesota
40%
60%
23
32
✓
MINN −4.5
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Missouri
32%
68%
3
28
✓
MIZ −8.0
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Georgia Tech
43%
57%
30
23
✗
GT −3.2
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Western Michigan
31%
69%
34
14
✗
WMU −8.5
–
–
Final
#21Michigan State@#8Notre Dame
28%
72%
8
31
✓
ND −9.7
–
–
Final
Oregon@#12Ohio State
17%
83%
14
24
✓
OSU −15.9
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Wyoming
53%
46%
35
29
✓
OKST −1.4
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Oregon State
69%
31%
34
36
✗
SJSU −7.9
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#14Penn State
15%
85%
0
41
✓
PSU −17.4
–
–
Final
#22Boston College@USCUpset
51%
49%
17
23
✗
BC −0.3
–
–
Final
Tulane@Southern Miss
37%
63%
24
31
✓
USM −5.8
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@#25Syracuse
21%
78%
10
24
✓
SYR −13.2
–
–
Final
Temple@#18PittsburghUpset
19%
81%
24
21
✗
PITT −14.5
–
–
Final
#13Washington@Texas A&MUpset
59%
41%
12
29
✗
WASH −3.5
–
–
Final
BYU@TCU
69%
31%
12
33
✗
BYU −8.1
–
–
Final
UTEP@Colorado State
47%
53%
45
6
✗
CSU −1.5
–
–
Final
Ohio@Toledo
24%
76%
12
17
✓
TOL −11.9
–
–
Final
Fresno State@#7UCLA
5.7%
94%
0
17
✓
UCLA −26.3
–
–
Final
Utah@WisconsinUpset
19%
81%
31
28
✗
WIS −14.9
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Virginia
45%
55%
13
14
✓
UVA −2.2
–
–
Final
NC State@Wake Forest
24%
76%
3
21
✓
WAKE −12.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 19 · TBD Lehigh at Navy Navy −18.2 86%
Sat, Sep 19 · TBD Arkansas State at Ole Miss Ole Miss −2.0 55%
Sat, Sep 19 · TBD Louisiana Tech at Mississippi State Mississippi State −9.1 71%
Sat, Sep 19 · TBD Lamar at Texas Tech Texas Tech −37.0 99%