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2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 1987

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 53 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 25

Wilder than 25% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 14.0 expected

  • Biggest shockWestern Michigan over Bowling Green19% chance · won 34-27
  • Runner-upCal State Fullerton over Utah State22% chance · won 30-11
  • Runner-upAngelo State over New Mexico State22% chance · won 21-17

Upsets

Sat, Sep 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 44 games

Final
Air Force@Colorado State
77%
23%
27
19
✓
AF −12.0
–
–
Final
#6Alabama@Vanderbilt
87%
13%
30
23
✓
ALA −18.4
–
–
Final
#13Tennessee@#5Auburn
32%
68%
20
20
✗
AUB −7.7
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Baylor
26%
74%
22
36
✓
BAY −10.9
–
–
Final
BYU@New Mexico
53%
47%
45
25
✓
BYU −1.1
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Utah StateUpset
22%
78%
30
11
✗
USU −13.2
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Cincinnati
45%
55%
26
31
✓
CIN −2.3
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#24Clemson
23%
77%
12
33
✓
CLEM −12.2
–
–
Final
Washington State@Colorado
32%
68%
17
26
✓
COLO −7.9
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Kent State
45%
55%
23
21
✗
KENT −2.0
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#9Florida
10%
90%
3
38
✓
FLA −21.2
–
–
Final
#7Florida State@Michigan State
64%
36%
31
3
✓
FSU −5.9
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#18Georgia
26%
74%
6
13
✓
UGA −11.0
–
–
Final
Missouri@Indiana
40%
60%
17
20
✓
IU −4.4
–
–
Final
Kansas State@#11Iowa
0.6%
99%
13
38
✓
IOWA −41.6
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@#15Arkansas
83%
17%
51
7
✓
MIA −15.6
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@#16Michigan
1.5%
98%
0
49
✓
MICH −35.9
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Minnesota
21%
79%
10
30
✓
MINN −13.6
–
–
Final
#4Nebraska@#17Arizona State
56%
44%
35
28
✓
NEB −2.3
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Navy
93%
7.1%
45
14
✓
UNC −24.2
–
–
Final
Maryland@NC State
71%
29%
14
42
✗
MD −8.9
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Northern Illinois
44%
56%
16
16
✗
NIU −2.6
–
–
Final
#3Notre Dame@Purdue
90%
9.8%
44
20
✓
ND −21.3
–
–
Final
#10LSU@#14Ohio State
46%
54%
13
13
✗
OSU −1.8
–
–
Final
#2Oklahoma@Tulsa
95%
5.2%
65
0
✓
OU −26.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Oklahoma State
15%
85%
0
36
✓
OKST −17.4
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Oregon
25%
75%
20
25
✓
ORE −11.3
–
–
Final
#8Penn State@#22Boston College
58%
42%
27
17
✓
PSU −3.1
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@West Virginia
61%
39%
6
3
✓
PITT −4.6
–
–
Final
#23Kentucky@RutgersUpset
64%
36%
18
19
✗
UK −6.0
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Stanford
39%
61%
24
17
✗
STAN −4.8
–
–
Final
USC@California
59%
41%
31
14
✓
USC −3.7
–
–
Final
#25Syracuse@Virginia Tech
62%
38%
35
21
✓
SYR −5.1
–
–
Final
Akron@Temple
23%
77%
3
23
✓
TEM −12.2
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Texas
31%
69%
16
61
✓
TEX −8.3
–
–
Final
#20Texas A&M@Southern Miss
72%
28%
27
14
✓
TA&M −9.8
–
–
Final
Hawaii@UTEP
29%
71%
13
37
✓
UTEP −9.2
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Tulane
63%
37%
24
31
✗
MISS −5.3
–
–
Final
#21Arizona@#12UCLA
29%
71%
24
34
✓
UCLA −9.4
–
–
Final
Duke@Virginia
43%
57%
17
42
✓
UVA −3.2
–
–
Final
Pacific@#19Washington
2.1%
98%
3
31
✓
WASH −33.8
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Bowling GreenUpset
19%
81%
34
27
✗
BGSU −14.7
–
–
Final
Ball State@Wisconsin
17%
83%
13
30
✓
WIS −15.9
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Wyoming
21%
79%
17
34
✓
WYO −13.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 26 · TBD Angelo State at New Mexico State New Mexico State −13.0 78%
Sat, Sep 26 · TBD The Citadel at Army Army −36.2 98%
Sat, Sep 26 · TBD Georgia Southern at East Carolina East Carolina −8.2 69%
Sat, Sep 26 · TBD Sam Houston at Houston Houston −7.5 67%
Sat, Sep 26 · TBD Louisiana Tech at Kansas Louisiana Tech −7.7 68%
Sat, Sep 26 · TBD Murray State at Louisville Louisville −12.4 77%
Sat, Sep 26 · TBD Texas State at Rice Texas State −7.0 66%
Sat, Sep 26 · TBD Idaho State at Utah Utah −26.1 94%
Sat, Sep 26 · TBD Appalachian State at Wake Forest Wake Forest −12.1 76%