The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 1987

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 47 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 93

Wilder than 93% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 11.5 expected

  • Biggest shockNC State over Clemson15% chance · won 30-28
  • Runner-upLouisiana over Louisiana-Monroe17% chance · won 17-7
  • Runner-upCal State Fullerton over Northern Illinois18% chance · won 21-20

Upsets

Sat, Oct 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 44 games

Final
UTEP@Air Force
37%
63%
7
35
✓
AF −4.7
–
–
Final
#16Arizona State@Oregon State
88%
12%
30
21
✓
ASU −19.1
–
–
Final
Houston@#19Arkansas
6.5%
94%
17
21
✓
ARK −23.9
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#9Auburn
5.1%
95%
7
38
✓
AUB −25.9
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Ball State
60%
40%
3
13
✗
CMU −4.3
–
–
Final
BYU@Hawaii
50%
50%
16
14
✗
BYU −0.3
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Northern IllinoisUpset
19%
82%
21
20
✗
NIU −13.9
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Western Michigan
66%
34%
23
17
✓
EMU −7.1
–
–
Final
#24Kentucky@#14Georgia
31%
69%
14
17
✓
UGA −7.5
–
–
Final
#17Michigan State@Illinois
77%
23%
14
14
✓
MSU −12.3
–
–
Final
#10Michigan@IndianaUpset
69%
31%
10
14
✗
MICH −8.2
–
–
Final
Purdue@#22Iowa
10%
90%
14
38
✓
IOWA −19.9
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Kansas
48%
52%
42
28
✗
KU −0.4
–
–
Final
Kent State@Ohio
59%
41%
24
10
✓
KENT −4.1
–
–
Final
Akron@Louisville
44%
56%
10
31
✓
LOU −1.7
–
–
Final
Duke@Maryland
24%
76%
22
23
✓
MD −10.6
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@Cincinnati
>99%
0.5%
48
10
✓
MIA −41.9
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Ole Miss
27%
73%
14
42
✓
MISS −9.2
–
–
Final
Kansas State@#4Nebraska
0.1%
>99%
3
56
✓
NEB −49.7
–
–
Final
NC State@#25ClemsonUpset
15%
85%
30
28
✗
CLEM −15.9
–
–
Final
Northwestern@WisconsinUpset
22%
78%
27
24
✗
WIS −11.8
–
–
Final
#18USC@#6Notre Dame
19%
80%
15
26
✓
ND −13.3
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Ohio State
26%
74%
9
42
✓
OSU −9.9
–
–
Final
Colorado@#2Oklahoma
2.4%
98%
6
24
✓
OU −31.5
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Missouri
55%
45%
24
20
✓
OKST −2.6
–
–
Final
Fresno State@PacificUpset
78%
22%
22
23
✗
FRES −12.7
–
–
Final
#23Pittsburgh@Navy
97%
3.1%
10
6
✓
PITT −30.4
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Army
68%
32%
27
14
✓
RUTG −7.7
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Long Beach State
67%
33%
52
42
✓
SDSU −7.3
–
–
Final
UNLV@San Jose State
9.5%
90%
24
48
✓
SJSU −20.6
–
–
Final
East Carolina@#20South Carolina
9.7%
90%
12
34
✓
SC −20.4
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Memphis
42%
58%
17
14
✗
MEM −2.6
–
–
Final
Oregon@Stanford
41%
59%
10
13
✓
STAN −3.1
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#13Tennessee
9.3%
91%
15
29
✓
TENN −20.8
–
–
Final
#21Texas A&M@Rice
93%
6.9%
34
21
✓
TA&M −24.2
–
–
Final
TCU@BaylorUpset
24%
76%
24
0
✗
BAY −10.8
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Texas Tech
24%
76%
7
42
✓
TTU −10.8
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Toledo
66%
34%
25
37
✗
M-OH −7.0
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Tulane
41%
59%
38
57
✓
TULN −3.2
–
–
Final
California@#5UCLA
4.0%
96%
18
42
✓
UCLA −27.7
–
–
Final
Utah State@UtahUpset
20%
80%
41
36
✗
UTAH −13.1
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Virginia
55%
45%
21
35
✗
WAKE −2.3
–
–
Final
Arizona@Washington State
72%
28%
28
45
✗
ARIZ −9.6
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Boston College
38%
62%
37
16
✗
BC −4.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 24 · TBD Louisiana at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −14.6 83%
Sat, Oct 24 · TBD McNeese at New Mexico State New Mexico State −0.3 52%
Sat, Oct 24 · TBD Colgate at #12 Syracuse Syracuse −45.2 >99%