The MRI
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 1987

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 2

Wilder than 2% of weeks in the archive.

7 upsets against 11.5 expected

  • Biggest shockMichigan State over Iowa21% chance · won 19-14
  • Runner-upUNLV over Nevada29% chance · won 24-19
  • Runner-upTexas Tech over Texas A&M30% chance · won 27-21

Upsets

Fri, Oct 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
4.7%
95%
24
45
✓
BYU −27.9
–
–

Sat, Oct 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 45 games

Final
17%
83%
27
48
✓
AF −15.6
–
–
Final
3.3%
97%
10
38
✓
ALA −30.6
–
–
Final
10%
90%
7
45
✓
ARIZ −21.0
–
–
Final
31%
68%
16
35
✓
ASU −8.1
–
–
Final
69%
31%
20
10
✓
ARK −7.9
–
–
Final
68%
32%
20
10
✓
AUB −7.4
–
–
Final
85%
15%
30
18
✓
BAY −16.9
–
–
Final
40%
60%
13
10
✗
PITT −4.2
–
–
Final
77%
23%
29
16
✓
COLO −12.4
–
–
Final
21%
79%
31
32
✓
EMU −13.7
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Fresno State
13%
87%
7
30
✓
FRES −18.7
–
–
Final
66%
34%
31
14
✓
UGA −6.5
–
–
Final
18%
82%
18
35
✓
IU −15.0
–
–
Final
28%
72%
21
24
✓
KENT −10.0
–
–
Final
8.2%
92%
0
28
✓
UK −23.1
–
–
Final
44%
56%
10
13
✓
LSU −2.7
–
–
Final
80%
20%
26
25
✓
MIA −13.7
–
–
Final
19%
81%
20
30
✓
M-OH −14.5
–
–
Final
15%
85%
0
49
✓
MICH −17.1
–
–
Final
21%
79%
19
14
✗
IOWA −13.6
–
–
Final
21%
79%
19
21
✓
MINN −13.5
–
–
Final
34%
66%
6
9
✓
MSST −7.0
–
–
Final
13%
87%
21
30
✓
NEB −18.6
–
–
Final
52%
48%
0
17
✗
GT −0.9
–
–
Final
81%
19%
10
6
✓
OSU −14.4
–
–
Final
99%
1.0%
56
3
✓
OU −38.3
–
–
Final
59%
41%
22
29
✗
WASH −3.6
–
–
Final
40%
60%
7
23
✓
Pacific −4.5
–
–
Final
16%
84%
13
27
✓
PSU −16.8
–
–
Final
29%
71%
0
7
✓
RUTG −9.2
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@San Jose State
4.4%
96%
19
46
✓
SJSU −28.4
–
–
Final
8.4%
92%
14
48
✓
USC −23.0
–
–
Final
61%
39%
65
6
✓
USM −4.6
–
–
Final
62%
38%
24
13
✓
SYR −5.0
–
–
Final
8.8%
91%
12
38
✓
TENN −22.5
–
–
Final
12%
88%
26
45
✓
TEX −19.7
–
–
Final
70%
30%
21
27
✗
TA&M −8.6
–
–
Final
44%
56%
17
27
✓
TULN −2.7
–
–
Final
74%
26%
37
25
✓
TLSA −10.4
–
–
Final
74%
26%
49
0
✓
UCLA −10.9
–
–
Final
5.5%
94%
11
31
✓
VT −26.5
–
–
Final
61%
39%
17
13
✓
WAKE −4.3
–
–
Final
27%
73%
0
49
✓
WVU −10.5
–
–
Final
62%
38%
14
21
✗
TOL −5.0
–
–
Final
31%
69%
10
52
✓
WYO −8.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 3 · TBD Eastern Illinois at Akron Akron −25.9 94%
Sat, Oct 3 · TBD Yale at Hawaii Hawaii −31.5 97%
Sat, Oct 3 · TBD Southern Illinois at Kansas Kansas −15.4 82%
Sat, Oct 3 · TBD Nevada at UNLV Nevada −8.9 71%
Sat, Oct 3 · TBD VMI at Virginia Virginia −37.3 99%