The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 1987

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 96

Wilder than 96% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 12.5 expected

  • Biggest shockEast Tennessee State over NC State2.4% chance · won 29-14
  • Runner-upIndiana State over Cincinnati6.8% chance · won 40-16
  • Runner-upNorthern Arizona over Tulsa12% chance · won 24-20

Upsets

Thu, Nov 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Eastern Michigan@Toledo
55%
45%
38
9
✓
EMU −2.6
–
–

Sat, Nov 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 45 games

Final
Army@Air Force
11%
89%
10
27
✓
AF −19.0
–
–
Final
#12Alabama@#8LSUUpset
25%
75%
22
10
✗
LSU −10.5
–
–
Final
Oregon@#17Arizona State
17%
83%
17
37
✓
ASU −15.0
–
–
Final
Baylor@#22Arkansas
20%
80%
7
10
✓
ARK −13.2
–
–
Final
Kent State@Bowling Green
44%
56%
20
30
✓
BGSU −1.8
–
–
Final
San Diego State@BYU
21%
79%
21
38
✓
BYU −12.6
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Ohio
58%
42%
31
17
✓
CMU −3.6
–
–
Final
Clemson@North Carolina
45%
55%
13
10
✗
UNC −1.7
–
–
Final
Missouri@Colorado
26%
74%
10
27
✓
COLO −9.7
–
–
Final
Temple@East Carolina
44%
56%
26
31
✓
ECU −1.9
–
–
Final
#3Florida State@#7Auburn
50%
50%
34
6
✓
FSU −0.6
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Fresno State
14%
86%
17
21
✓
FRES −16.6
–
–
Final
#9Florida@#14Georgia
49%
51%
10
23
✓
FLA −0.2
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Hawaii
28%
72%
38
39
✓
HAW −9.1
–
–
Final
Texas@Houston
73%
27%
40
60
✗
TEX −10.3
–
–
Final
Illinois@Indiana
20%
80%
22
34
✓
IU −13.1
–
–
Final
#21Iowa@Northwestern
87%
13%
52
24
✓
IOWA −18.7
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Kansas
34%
66%
17
17
✗
KU −6.2
–
–
Final
Memphis@Louisiana
52%
48%
7
31
✗
MEM −1.3
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@#1Miami (FL)
0.3%
>99%
3
54
✓
MIA −44.2
–
–
Final
#10Michigan@Minnesota
78%
22%
30
20
✓
MICH −12.8
–
–
Final
Purdue@#19Michigan State
11%
89%
3
45
✓
MSU −19.0
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#4Nebraska
0.2%
>99%
3
42
✓
NEB −45.6
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@UNLV
30%
70%
17
30
✓
UNLV −7.8
–
–
Final
Boston College@#6Notre Dame
8.9%
91%
25
32
✓
ND −21.1
–
–
Final
#24Oklahoma State@#2Oklahoma
5.7%
94%
10
29
✓
OU −24.9
–
–
Final
#18Penn State@Maryland
67%
33%
21
16
✓
PSU −7.7
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Rutgers
52%
48%
17
0
✓
PITT −1.5
–
–
Final
Pacific@San Jose State
3.6%
96%
17
42
✓
SJSU −28.4
–
–
Final
Stanford@#16USC
16%
84%
24
39
✓
USC −15.3
–
–
Final
#11Syracuse@Navy
98%
2.5%
34
10
✓
SYR −31.8
–
–
Final
Louisville@#15Tennessee
2.5%
98%
10
41
✓
TENN −31.0
–
–
Final
TCU@Texas Tech
42%
58%
35
36
✓
TTU −2.6
–
–
Final
UTEP@Utah
67%
33%
30
24
✓
UTEP −7.5
–
–
Final
Tulane@Mississippi State
34%
66%
30
19
✗
MSST −6.3
–
–
Final
#5UCLA@Oregon State
95%
4.6%
52
17
✓
UCLA −27.4
–
–
Final
Utah State@New Mexico State
70%
30%
25
6
✓
USU −9.0
–
–
Final
#25Kentucky@VanderbiltUpset
78%
22%
29
38
✗
UK −13.1
–
–
Final
Virginia@Georgia Tech
46%
54%
23
14
✗
GT −1.2
–
–
Final
Duke@Wake Forest
39%
61%
27
30
✓
WAKE −3.8
–
–
Final
Arizona@Washington
36%
64%
21
21
✗
WASH −5.4
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@West Virginia
13%
87%
16
28
✓
WVU −17.3
–
–
Final
Ball State@Western Michigan
52%
48%
16
31
✗
BALL −1.5
–
–
Final
#23Ohio State@WisconsinUpset
82%
18%
24
26
✗
OSU −14.9
–
–
Final
Wyoming@New Mexico
79%
21%
59
16
✓
WYO −13.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD East Tennessee State at NC State NC State −31.5 98%
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD Cincinnati at Indiana State Cincinnati −24.3 93%
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD Louisiana-Monroe at Southern Miss Southern Miss −5.5 65%
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD Northern Arizona at Tulsa Tulsa −18.1 88%
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD Western Illinois at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −21.0 91%