The MRI
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 1987

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 46

Wilder than 46% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 12.5 expected

  • Biggest shockNavy over Delaware3.0% chance · won 31-22
  • Runner-upNC State over Duke25% chance · won 47-45
  • Runner-upAkron over Northern Illinois26% chance · won 27-21

Upsets

Sat, Nov 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 46 games

Final
89%
11%
73
26
✓
AF −19.7
–
–
Final
26%
74%
27
21
✗
NIU −9.6
–
–
Final
47%
53%
27
11
✗
UGA −0.8
–
–
Final
27%
73%
17
30
✓
BALL −9.5
–
–
Final
7.9%
92%
31
34
✓
BAY −22.2
–
–
Final
46%
54%
37
24
✗
UTEP −1.2
–
–
Final
70%
30%
20
38
✗
ASU −9.0
–
–
Final
21%
78%
16
45
✓
CLEM −12.1
–
–
Final
28%
72%
18
38
✓
EMU −8.7
–
–
Final
21%
79%
14
27
✓
FLA −12.4
–
–
Final
36%
64%
37
7
✗
TEM −5.2
–
–
Final
48%
52%
29
27
✗
OSU −0.3
–
–
Final
24%
76%
14
16
✓
ISU −10.8
–
–
Final
45%
55%
10
14
✓
KENT −1.6
–
–
Final
4.5%
96%
14
34
✓
LSU −26.8
–
–
Final
21%
79%
8
43
✓
MEM −12.5
–
–
Final
0.2%
>99%
13
27
✓
MIA −45.0
–
–
Final
82%
18%
17
14
✓
MICH −14.8
–
–
Final
24%
76%
3
27
✓
MSU −10.6
–
–
Final
25%
75%
19
22
✓
MINN −10.3
–
–
Final
78%
22%
29
6
✓
UNLV −13.0
–
–
Final
24%
76%
47
45
✗
DUKE −10.5
–
–
Final
30%
70%
6
37
✓
ND −7.9
–
–
Final
1.6%
98%
13
17
✓
OU −34.1
–
–
Final
96%
4.5%
49
17
✓
OKST −27.5
–
–
Final
48%
52%
31
17
✗
WSU −0.4
–
–
Final
Pacific@Cal State Fullerton
31%
69%
22
14
✗
Cal State Fullerton −7.5
–
–
Final
49%
51%
0
10
✓
PSU −0.1
–
–
Final
23%
77%
15
20
✓
PUR −11.2
–
–
Final
33%
67%
12
26
✓
SDSU −6.6
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@San Jose State
3.7%
96%
16
44
✓
SJSU −28.3
–
–
Final
76%
24%
30
0
✓
SC −11.5
–
–
Final
26%
74%
10
12
✓
USC −9.6
–
–
Final
35%
65%
34
38
✓
USM −5.6
–
–
Final
67%
33%
38
7
✓
STAN −7.3
–
–
Final
19%
81%
17
45
✓
SYR −13.7
–
–
Final
12%
88%
13
55
✓
TENN −18.5
–
–
Final
43%
57%
21
24
✓
TEX −2.5
–
–
Final
36%
64%
0
14
✓
TA&M −5.3
–
–
Final
55%
45%
17
17
✓
CMU −2.6
–
–
Final
33%
67%
10
38
✓
TULN −6.5
–
–
Final
11%
89%
14
47
✓
UCLA −19.0
–
–
Final
66%
34%
13
17
✗
FRES −7.2
–
–
Final
55%
45%
17
20
✗
UNC −2.6
–
–
Final
23%
77%
13
37
✓
WVU −11.2
–
–
Final
74%
26%
31
7
✓
WYO −10.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD Lafayette at Army Army −23.5 93%
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD Austin Peay at Cincinnati Cincinnati −16.5 86%
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD Furman at #3 Florida State Florida State −49.0 >99%
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD Navy at Delaware Delaware −29.8 97%