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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 1987

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 11

Wilder than 11% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 12.3 expected

  • Biggest shockCalifornia over Oregon27% chance · won 20-6
  • Runner-upVanderbilt over Rutgers30% chance · won 27-13
  • Runner-upSan Diego State over Hawaii31% chance · won 29-21

Upsets

Sat, Oct 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 46 games

Final
Mississippi State@#11Alabama
6.2%
94%
18
21
✓
ALA −24.3
–
–
Final
Arizona@Stanford
47%
53%
23
13
✗
STAN −0.7
–
–
Final
#24Arkansas@Rice
91%
9.1%
38
14
✓
ARK −21.8
–
–
Final
Temple@Army
60%
40%
7
17
✗
TEM −4.6
–
–
Final
#7Florida@#9Auburn
42%
58%
6
29
✓
AUB −2.6
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Ball State
48%
52%
17
42
✓
BALL −0.3
–
–
Final
#14Tennessee@Boston CollegeUpset
65%
35%
18
20
✗
TENN −6.4
–
–
Final
Air Force@BYU
49%
51%
13
24
✓
PK
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Cal State Fullerton
18%
82%
14
48
✓
Cal State Fullerton −14.0
–
–
Final
California@Oregon
26%
74%
20
6
✗
ORE −9.5
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Central Michigan
22%
78%
27
30
✓
CMU −12.1
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Clemson
21%
79%
17
31
✓
CLEM −12.3
–
–
Final
Colorado@Iowa State
82%
18%
42
10
✓
COLO −14.8
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Duke
41%
59%
14
48
✓
DUKE −3.1
–
–
Final
Ohio@Eastern Michigan
19%
81%
16
34
✓
EMU −13.5
–
–
Final
Tulane@#3Florida State
2.2%
98%
14
73
✓
FSU −31.9
–
–
Final
UNLV@Fresno State
24%
76%
10
45
✓
FRES −10.9
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Illinois
48%
52%
17
27
✓
ILL −0.3
–
–
Final
Indiana@#19Iowa
31%
69%
21
29
✓
IOWA −7.3
–
–
Final
Toledo@Kent State
26%
74%
13
17
✓
KENT −9.7
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@#22Kentucky
8.4%
92%
7
14
✓
UK −21.7
–
–
Final
#8LSU@Ole Miss
84%
16%
42
13
✓
LSU −16.1
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@East Carolina
99%
1.0%
41
3
✓
MIA −38.0
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Miami (OH)
32%
68%
7
17
✓
M-OH −7.0
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#10Michigan
2.2%
98%
6
29
✓
MICH −32.0
–
–
Final
#23Michigan State@#18Ohio State
38%
62%
13
7
✗
OSU −4.6
–
–
Final
#4Nebraska@Missouri
86%
14%
42
7
✓
NEB −17.5
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Maryland
46%
54%
27
14
✗
MD −1.1
–
–
Final
Navy@#6Notre Dame
0.2%
>99%
13
56
✓
ND −45.9
–
–
Final
#2Oklahoma@Kansas
>99%
0.2%
71
10
✓
OU −47.3
–
–
Final
Kansas State@#25Oklahoma State
1.4%
99%
7
56
✓
OKST −35.2
–
–
Final
West Virginia@#15Penn State
27%
73%
21
25
✓
PSU −9.4
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Purdue
39%
61%
14
49
✓
PUR −4.0
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Hawaii
31%
69%
29
21
✗
HAW −7.6
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Utah State
87%
13%
24
14
✓
SJSU −18.7
–
–
Final
NC State@#17South Carolina
14%
86%
0
48
✓
SC −16.8
–
–
Final
Washington State@#20USC
14%
86%
7
42
✓
USC −16.7
–
–
Final
#12Syracuse@Pittsburgh
53%
47%
24
10
✓
SYR −1.8
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Texas
36%
64%
27
41
✓
TEX −5.1
–
–
Final
Houston@TCU
21%
79%
7
35
✓
TCU −12.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico@UTEP
12%
88%
0
34
✓
UTEP −18.0
–
–
Final
Louisville@Tulsa
27%
73%
22
26
✓
TLSA −9.2
–
–
Final
#5UCLA@#16Arizona State
62%
38%
31
23
✓
UCLA −5.2
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Vanderbilt
70%
30%
13
27
✗
RUTG −9.0
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Washington
8.5%
92%
12
28
✓
WASH −21.6
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Wyoming
14%
86%
15
20
✓
WYO −16.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 31 · TBD Nicholls at Akron Akron −10.6 76%
Sat, Oct 31 · TBD Memphis at Arkansas State Arkansas State −1.1 54%
Sat, Oct 31 · TBD Tennessee Tech at Cincinnati Cincinnati −30.3 97%
Sat, Oct 31 · TBD Jackson State at Southern Miss Southern Miss −25.2 94%
Sat, Oct 31 · TBD Louisiana Tech at #21 Texas A&M Texas A&M −20.2 90%
Sat, Oct 31 · TBD Utah at Boise State Boise State −6.7 67%