The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 1987

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2

Chaos 100

Wilder than 100% of weeks in the archive.

22 upsets against 13.7 expected

  • Biggest shockLamar over Northern Illinois0.9% chance · won 39-35
  • Runner-upYoungstown State over Bowling Green2.8% chance · won 20-17
  • Runner-upHoly Cross over Army3.1% chance · won 34-24

Upsets

Sat, Sep 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 41 games

Final
TCU@Air Force
20%
80%
10
21
✓
AF −12.7
–
–
Final
#4Alabama@#7Penn State
39%
61%
24
13
✗
PSU −4.0
–
–
Final
#14Arizona State@Illinois
71%
29%
21
7
✓
ASU −9.1
–
–
Final
Arkansas@Ole Miss
49%
51%
31
10
✗
ARK −0.1
–
–
Final
Kansas@#6Auburn
3.1%
97%
0
49
✓
AUB −28.8
–
–
Final
Temple@#23Boston College
31%
68%
7
28
✓
BC −6.9
–
–
Final
BYU@Texas
44%
56%
22
17
✗
TEX −2.0
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Louisville
51%
49%
25
0
✓
CIN −0.9
–
–
Final
#24Clemson@Virginia Tech
49%
51%
22
10
✗
CLEM −0.1
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Duke
40%
60%
16
31
✓
DUKE −3.4
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Miami (OH)Upset
12%
88%
33
17
✗
M-OH −18.1
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#19Florida
19%
81%
0
52
✓
FLA −13.2
–
–
Final
#9Florida State@East Carolina
73%
27%
44
3
✓
FSU −10.1
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#25Georgia
18%
82%
7
41
✓
UGA −13.8
–
–
Final
Rice@Indiana
7.3%
93%
13
35
✓
IU −22.2
–
–
Final
#11Iowa@#18Arizona
44%
56%
15
14
✗
ARIZ −2.0
–
–
Final
Kent State@Akron
26%
74%
27
23
✗
AKR −9.3
–
–
Final
Utah State@Kentucky
9.3%
91%
0
41
✓
UK −20.1
–
–
Final
UNLV@Louisiana
50%
50%
10
21
✗
UNLV −0.6
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@#8LSU
0.1%
>99%
12
56
✓
LSU −50.6
–
–
Final
Virginia@Maryland
19%
81%
19
21
✓
MD −12.9
–
–
Final
#20Baylor@MissouriUpset
64%
36%
18
23
✗
BAY −6.1
–
–
Final
#5UCLA@#3Nebraska
35%
65%
33
42
✓
NEB −5.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico@New Mexico StateUpset
80%
20%
14
17
✗
UNM −13.6
–
–
Final
#21Notre Dame@#13Michigan
30%
70%
26
7
✗
MICH −7.5
–
–
Final
West Virginia@#16Ohio State
18%
82%
3
24
✓
OSU −13.5
–
–
Final
North Carolina@#2Oklahoma
5.0%
95%
0
28
✓
OU −25.3
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Houston
50%
50%
35
0
✓
OKST −0.6
–
–
Final
Oregon@Colorado
29%
72%
10
7
✗
COLO −8.3
–
–
Final
NC State@#17Pittsburgh
11%
89%
0
34
✓
PITT −18.4
–
–
Final
Utah@San Diego State
27%
73%
34
52
✓
SDSU −9.0
–
–
Final
San Jose State@California
49%
51%
27
25
✗
PK
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Rutgers
39%
61%
20
3
✗
RUTG −3.7
–
–
Final
#12Tennessee@Mississippi State
53%
47%
38
10
✓
TENN −1.7
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Texas Tech
26%
74%
24
33
✓
TTU −9.5
–
–
Final
Ball State@Toledo
37%
63%
17
21
✓
TOL −4.8
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Tulane
53%
47%
12
25
✗
ISU −1.7
–
–
Final
Memphis@Vanderbilt
30%
70%
17
27
✓
VAN −7.8
–
–
Final
Purdue@#10Washington
7.6%
92%
10
28
✓
WASH −21.8
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Washington State
36%
64%
28
43
✓
WSU −4.8
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Wisconsin
45%
55%
7
28
✓
WIS −1.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD Central Michigan at Idaho Central Michigan −13.5 80%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD Western Illinois at Fresno State Fresno State −27.9 96%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD The Citadel at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −36.7 99%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD Holy Cross at Army Army −28.9 97%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD Western Michigan at Illinois State Western Michigan −13.4 80%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD Lamar at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −36.8 99%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD Weber State at Long Beach State Long Beach State −7.9 71%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD Northern Iowa at Minnesota Minnesota −27.4 96%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD Marshall at Ohio Marshall −8.0 69%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD Sacramento State at Pacific Sacramento State −6.2 64%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD Western Carolina at South Carolina South Carolina −43.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD Richmond at Wake Forest Wake Forest −23.3 94%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD William & Mary at Navy Navy −24.2 94%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD Youngstown State at Bowling Green Bowling Green −29.5 97%