The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 1988

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 31

Wilder than 31% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 13.2 expected

  • Biggest shockCal State Fullerton over UNLV16% chance · won 20-10
  • Runner-upMcNeese over Toledo17% chance · won 46-19
  • Runner-upOregon over Washington State32% chance · won 43-28

Upsets

Sat, Sep 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 42 games

Final
Northwestern@Air Force
20%
80%
27
62
✓
AF −13.9
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Arizona State
17%
83%
17
28
✓
ASU −15.8
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Arkansas
27%
73%
13
21
✓
ARK −10.4
–
–
Final
Kansas@#10Auburn
2.8%
97%
7
56
✓
AUB −31.9
–
–
Final
Baylor@Iowa State
69%
31%
35
0
✓
BAY −8.0
–
–
Final
UTEP@BYU
23%
77%
27
31
✓
BYU −12.5
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@UNLVUpset
16%
84%
20
10
✗
UNLV −16.4
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Akron
64%
36%
27
16
✓
CMU −5.6
–
–
Final
#11Colorado@#23Iowa
53%
47%
24
21
✓
COLO −1.2
–
–
Final
Kent State@Eastern Michigan
53%
47%
14
21
✗
KENT −1.0
–
–
Final
#5Florida State@#21Clemson
63%
37%
24
21
✓
FSU −5.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Fresno State
4.2%
96%
0
41
✓
FRES −28.8
–
–
Final
#9Georgia@Mississippi State
84%
16%
42
35
✓
UGA −16.1
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Hawaii
56%
44%
27
36
✗
SJSU −2.4
–
–
Final
#25Houston@Missouri
62%
38%
31
7
✓
HOU −5.0
–
–
Final
Utah@Illinois
41%
59%
24
35
✓
ILL −3.7
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Indiana
37%
63%
15
36
✓
IU −5.8
–
–
Final
#6LSU@Tennessee
74%
26%
34
9
✓
LSU −10.7
–
–
Final
Memphis@Louisville
66%
34%
18
29
✗
MEM −6.7
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@#20Michigan
93%
7.2%
31
30
✓
MIA −24.1
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Minnesota
43%
57%
3
35
✓
MINN −3.1
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@NC State
50%
50%
6
14
✗
WAKE −0.1
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Wisconsin
37%
63%
19
17
✗
WIS −5.4
–
–
Final
#13Notre Dame@Michigan State
57%
43%
20
3
✓
ND −2.7
–
–
Final
#24Arizona@#3Oklahoma
16%
84%
10
28
✓
OU −16.7
–
–
Final
Oregon@#19Washington StateUpset
32%
68%
43
28
✗
WSU −8.1
–
–
Final
California@Oregon State
53%
47%
16
17
✗
CAL −1.1
–
–
Final
Boston College@#17Penn State
23%
77%
20
23
✓
PSU −12.2
–
–
Final
#18Ohio State@PittsburghUpset
54%
46%
10
42
✗
OSU −1.7
–
–
Final
Ohio@Purdue
25%
75%
10
33
✓
PUR −11.5
–
–
Final
East Carolina@#15South Carolina
9.3%
91%
0
17
✓
SC −22.0
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Southern Miss
51%
49%
13
35
✗
VT −0.4
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Stanford
24%
76%
10
31
✓
STAN −11.6
–
–
Final
Temple@Navy
34%
66%
12
7
✗
NAVY −6.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Texas
12%
88%
0
47
✓
TEX −20.0
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@TCU
16%
84%
12
49
✓
TCU −16.6
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Tulane
15%
85%
16
20
✓
TULN −17.6
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@#2UCLA
<0.1%
>99%
3
56
✓
UCLA −59.5
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Rutgers
34%
66%
31
30
✗
RUTG −6.9
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Virginia
48%
52%
16
17
✓
UVA −0.8
–
–
Final
Army@Washington
14%
86%
17
31
✓
WASH −18.4
–
–
Final
Maryland@#16West Virginia
18%
82%
24
55
✓
WVU −15.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD UMass at Ball State Ball State −17.2 85%
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD Austin Peay at Cincinnati Cincinnati −15.3 82%
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD The Citadel at Duke Duke −42.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD Indiana State at #22 Florida Florida −38.3 99%
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD Idaho at Pacific Pacific −2.7 56%
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD Toledo at McNeese Toledo −15.8 83%
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD Illinois State at Western Michigan Western Michigan −39.2 99%
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD Louisiana Tech at #12 Wyoming Wyoming −29.2 96%
Sun, Sep 18 · TBD Sam Houston at Louisiana Louisiana −8.6 70%