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2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 1988

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 81

Wilder than 81% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 12.2 expected

  • Biggest shockLong Beach State over San Jose State3.0% chance · won 34-13
  • Runner-upSan Diego State over BYU11% chance · won 27-15
  • Runner-upTulane over Ole Miss13% chance · won 14-9

Upsets

Sat, Nov 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 49 games

Final
New Mexico State@Akron
10%
90%
7
52
✓
AKR −19.7
–
–
Final
Arizona@#25WashingtonUpset
36%
64%
16
13
✗
WASH −5.3
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Arizona State
36%
64%
24
30
✓
ASU −5.3
–
–
Final
#21Arkansas@Baylor
62%
38%
33
3
✓
ARK −5.6
–
–
Final
Air Force@Army
66%
34%
15
28
✗
AF −7.0
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@#8Auburn
10.0%
90%
8
38
✓
AUB −20.1
–
–
Final
Ohio@Central Michigan
14%
86%
10
42
✓
CMU −16.9
–
–
Final
North Carolina@#15Clemson
4.5%
96%
14
37
✓
CLEM −26.7
–
–
Final
Colorado@Missouri
64%
36%
45
8
✓
COLO −6.3
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Temple
44%
56%
34
17
✗
TEM −1.9
–
–
Final
Toledo@Eastern Michigan
35%
65%
19
20
✓
EMU −5.5
–
–
Final
#7Florida State@South Carolina
67%
33%
59
0
✓
FSU −7.4
–
–
Final
Pacific@Fresno State
2.0%
98%
0
34
✓
FRES −32.8
–
–
Final
Florida@#23Georgia
29%
71%
3
26
✓
UGA −8.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Hawaii
3.7%
96%
3
45
✓
HAW −28.3
–
–
Final
#16Houston@Texas
68%
32%
66
15
✓
HOU −8.1
–
–
Final
#17Indiana@IllinoisUpset
70%
30%
20
21
✗
IU −8.6
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Iowa
3.9%
96%
10
35
✓
IOWA −27.8
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Kansas
43%
57%
12
30
✓
KU −2.2
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Kent State
20%
80%
19
31
✓
KENT −12.8
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Kentucky
21%
78%
13
14
✓
UK −12.1
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@San Jose StateUpset
3.0%
97%
34
13
✗
SJSU −29.9
–
–
Final
#13LSU@#14Alabama
41%
59%
19
18
✗
ALA −3.1
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Louisville
41%
59%
3
13
✓
LOU −3.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Memphis
57%
43%
3
20
✗
UL −3.2
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#1Miami (FL)
0.9%
99%
3
34
✓
MIA −37.4
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#9Michigan
3.9%
96%
7
22
✓
MICH −27.9
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Purdue
73%
27%
48
3
✓
MSU −10.3
–
–
Final
#5Nebraska@Iowa State
93%
6.8%
51
16
✓
NEB −24.2
–
–
Final
Rice@#2Notre Dame
1.0%
99%
11
54
✓
ND −37.2
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Ohio State
12%
88%
12
34
✓
OSU −18.1
–
–
Final
#10Oklahoma@#12Oklahoma State
48%
52%
31
28
✗
OKST −0.3
–
–
Final
Maryland@Penn State
24%
76%
10
17
✓
PSU −11.1
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#22Pittsburgh
20%
80%
10
20
✓
PITT −13.0
–
–
Final
#18BYU@San Diego StateUpset
90%
10%
15
27
✗
BYU −20.4
–
–
Final
California@#3USC
6.3%
94%
3
35
✓
USC −24.1
–
–
Final
Navy@#19Syracuse
4.0%
96%
21
49
✓
SYR −27.6
–
–
Final
Boston College@Tennessee
40%
60%
7
10
✓
TENN −3.4
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@TCU
37%
63%
23
10
✗
TCU −4.7
–
–
Final
Tulane@Ole MissUpset
13%
87%
14
9
✗
MISS −17.5
–
–
Final
#4UCLA@Oregon
73%
27%
16
6
✓
UCLA −10.3
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Utah
40%
60%
7
46
✓
UTAH −3.6
–
–
Final
UNLV@Utah State
41%
59%
10
17
✓
USU −3.0
–
–
Final
NC State@Virginia
56%
44%
14
19
✗
NCSU −2.7
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Duke
40%
60%
35
16
✗
DUKE −3.6
–
–
Final
#20Washington State@Stanford
47%
53%
24
21
✗
STAN −0.8
–
–
Final
#6West Virginia@Cincinnati
98%
2.0%
51
13
✓
WVU −33.2
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Ball State
41%
59%
16
13
✗
BALL −3.2
–
–
Final
UTEP@#11Wyoming
17%
83%
6
51
✓
WYO −14.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 5 · TBD VMI at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −36.7 99%
Sat, Nov 5 · TBD Western Illinois at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −16.0 85%
Sat, Nov 5 · TBD Louisiana Tech at #24 Texas A&M Texas A&M −26.6 95%