The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 8 slate, 1988

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 82

Wilder than 82% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 10.5 expected

  • Biggest shockIowa State over Missouri14% chance · won 21-3
  • Runner-upEastern Michigan over Ball State15% chance · won 16-12
  • Runner-upGeorgia Tech over South Carolina16% chance · won 34-0

Upsets

Sat, Oct 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 47 games

Final
Air Force@Utah
80%
20%
56
49
✓
AF −13.9
–
–
Final
#16Alabama@Tennessee
78%
22%
28
20
✓
ALA −12.7
–
–
Final
#14Washington State@ArizonaUpset
52%
48%
28
45
✗
WSU −1.2
–
–
Final
#18Arkansas@Texas
66%
34%
27
24
✓
ARK −7.0
–
–
Final
Akron@#10Auburn
1.8%
98%
0
42
✓
AUB −33.3
–
–
Final
TCU@#19BYU
15%
85%
18
31
✓
BYU −16.3
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Central Michigan
8.7%
91%
3
21
✓
CMU −21.4
–
–
Final
Duke@Clemson
19%
81%
17
49
✓
CLEM −13.6
–
–
Final
Colorado@Kansas
95%
4.6%
21
9
✓
COLO −27.4
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Ball StateUpset
15%
85%
16
12
✗
BALL −16.4
–
–
Final
East Carolina@#8Florida State
2.2%
98%
21
45
✓
FSU −31.9
–
–
Final
Utah State@Fresno State
11%
89%
10
51
✓
FRES −19.1
–
–
Final
#20South Carolina@Georgia TechUpset
84%
16%
0
34
✗
SC −16.3
–
–
Final
Hawaii@San Diego State
65%
35%
32
30
✓
HAW −6.5
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#25Houston
12%
88%
28
82
✓
HOU −17.9
–
–
Final
Illinois@Wisconsin
65%
35%
34
6
✓
ILL −6.5
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#15Indiana
8.3%
92%
13
33
✓
IU −21.8
–
–
Final
Iowa State@MissouriUpset
14%
86%
21
3
✗
MIZ −16.8
–
–
Final
Kent State@Western MichiganUpset
16%
84%
45
28
✗
WMU −15.3
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Long Beach State
68%
32%
22
24
✗
Cal State Fullerton −8.0
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Louisiana
16%
84%
0
45
✓
UL −15.5
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#13LSU
20%
80%
12
15
✓
LSU −13.2
–
–
Final
Virginia@Louisville
41%
59%
28
30
✓
LOU −3.2
–
–
Final
Iowa@#9Michigan
16%
84%
17
17
✗
MICH −15.3
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Michigan State
7.3%
93%
3
36
✓
MSU −22.9
–
–
Final
#7Oklahoma State@#4Nebraska
34%
66%
42
63
✓
NEB −6.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@UNLV
16%
84%
20
28
✓
UNLV −15.8
–
–
Final
NC State@North Carolina
59%
41%
48
3
✓
NCSU −4.1
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@#3Notre Dame
64%
36%
30
31
✗
MIA −6.4
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Ohio
46%
54%
21
38
✓
OHIO −1.0
–
–
Final
Kansas State@#6Oklahoma
0.2%
>99%
24
70
✓
OU −46.3
–
–
Final
Temple@Pittsburgh
8.8%
91%
7
42
✓
PITT −21.2
–
–
Final
Purdue@Ohio StateUpset
24%
76%
31
26
✗
OSU −10.8
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Boston College
43%
57%
17
6
✗
BC −2.1
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Pacific
92%
7.6%
35
17
✓
SJSU −23.3
–
–
Final
Washington@#2USC
10%
90%
27
28
✓
USC −20.0
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Southern Miss
26%
74%
21
38
✓
USM −9.6
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Stanford
19%
81%
3
24
✓
STAN −13.6
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#21Penn StateUpset
31%
69%
24
10
✗
PSU −7.2
–
–
Final
Baylor@#22Texas A&M
25%
75%
14
28
✓
TA&M −10.4
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Rice
70%
30%
38
36
✓
TTU −8.6
–
–
Final
Colorado State@UTEP
15%
85%
14
34
✓
UTEP −16.2
–
–
Final
#5UCLA@California
85%
15%
38
21
✓
UCLA −16.7
–
–
Final
#23Florida@VanderbiltUpset
74%
26%
9
24
✗
FLA −10.5
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Cincinnati
44%
56%
41
14
✗
CIN −1.9
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Maryland
50%
50%
27
24
✗
WAKE −0.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico@#12Wyoming
0.4%
>99%
7
55
✓
WYO −43.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 15 · TBD Lafayette at Army Army −28.9 97%
Sat, Oct 15 · TBD Arkansas State at Ole Miss Ole Miss −11.4 77%
Sat, Oct 15 · TBD Idaho State at #24 Oregon Oregon −58.5 >99%
Sat, Oct 15 · TBD Austin Peay at Toledo Toledo −29.5 97%