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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 1988

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 30

Wilder than 30% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 13.5 expected

  • Biggest shockOhio over Ball State21% chance · won 27-25
  • Runner-upNorthern Illinois over Western Michigan23% chance · won 15-7
  • Runner-upNew Mexico over Colorado State26% chance · won 24-23

Upsets

Sat, Nov 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 47 games

Final
Louisiana@#18Alabama
17%
83%
0
17
✓
ALA −14.8
–
–
Final
Oregon@Arizona
39%
61%
27
41
✓
ARIZ −4.1
–
–
Final
#22Texas A&M@#15Arkansas
36%
64%
20
25
✓
ARK −5.3
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Army
44%
56%
19
24
✓
ARMY −1.9
–
–
Final
#21Georgia@#8Auburn
21%
79%
10
20
✓
AUB −12.4
–
–
Final
Baylor@Rice
70%
30%
20
10
✓
BAY −8.6
–
–
Final
BYU@Air Force
56%
44%
49
31
✓
BYU −3.1
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Cal State Fullerton
64%
36%
13
58
✗
SJSU −6.3
–
–
Final
#16Clemson@Maryland
72%
28%
49
25
✓
CLEM −9.7
–
–
Final
NC State@Duke
58%
42%
43
43
✓
NCSU −3.9
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Bowling Green
59%
41%
28
3
✓
EMU −4.2
–
–
Final
Florida@Kentucky
40%
60%
24
19
✗
UK −3.3
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@#2Florida State
2.0%
98%
14
41
✓
FSU −32.8
–
–
Final
Fresno State@UNLV
84%
16%
31
14
✓
FRES −16.1
–
–
Final
#11Wyoming@#13Houston
49%
51%
10
34
✓
WYO −0.1
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Kansas State
77%
23%
16
7
✓
ISU −12.4
–
–
Final
Kent State@Miami (OH)
73%
27%
17
11
✓
KENT −10.2
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@New Mexico State
57%
42%
21
16
✓
Long Beach State −3.5
–
–
Final
#14LSU@Mississippi State
88%
12%
20
3
✓
LSU −19.4
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Memphis
36%
64%
20
26
✓
MEM −5.1
–
–
Final
Illinois@#10Michigan
9.4%
91%
9
38
✓
MICH −20.6
–
–
Final
#24Michigan State@#20Indiana
36%
64%
38
12
✗
IU −5.3
–
–
Final
#25Colorado@#6Nebraska
15%
85%
0
7
✓
NEB −15.9
–
–
Final
Colorado State@New Mexico
74%
26%
23
24
✗
CSU −10.9
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Northern IllinoisUpset
77%
23%
7
15
✗
WMU −12.2
–
–
Final
Purdue@Northwestern
56%
44%
7
28
✗
PUR −2.8
–
–
Final
Ball State@OhioUpset
79%
21%
25
27
✗
BALL −13.3
–
–
Final
Iowa@Ohio State
64%
36%
24
24
✓
IOWA −6.1
–
–
Final
#9Oklahoma@Missouri
90%
9.5%
16
7
✓
OU −21.4
–
–
Final
Kansas@#12Oklahoma State
0.6%
99%
24
63
✓
OKST −40.6
–
–
Final
#23Pittsburgh@Penn State
49%
51%
14
7
✗
PITT −0.1
–
–
Final
Navy@South Carolina
8.2%
92%
8
19
✓
SC −21.9
–
–
Final
#4USC@Arizona State
87%
13%
50
0
✓
USC −18.3
–
–
Final
#17Syracuse@Boston College
75%
25%
45
20
✓
SYR −11.2
–
–
Final
Temple@Akron
35%
65%
37
17
✗
AKR −5.8
–
–
Final
Tennessee@Ole Miss
36%
64%
20
12
✗
MISS −5.5
–
–
Final
Texas@TCU
42%
58%
30
21
✗
TCU −2.7
–
–
Final
San Diego State@UTEP
16%
84%
7
58
✓
UTEP −15.5
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Toledo
68%
32%
13
20
✗
CMU −8.0
–
–
Final
Stanford@#5UCLA
14%
86%
17
27
✓
UCLA −17.0
–
–
Final
Utah@Utah State
64%
36%
42
21
✓
UTAH −6.0
–
–
Final
Virginia@North Carolina
63%
37%
27
24
✓
UVA −5.9
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Wake Forest
28%
72%
24
28
✓
WAKE −8.6
–
–
Final
California@Washington
22%
78%
27
28
✓
WASH −11.7
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#19Washington State
15%
85%
27
36
✓
WSU −16.3
–
–
Final
#7West Virginia@Rutgers
84%
16%
35
25
✓
WVU −16.3
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Wisconsin
69%
31%
7
14
✗
MINN −8.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 12 · TBD Indiana State at Cincinnati Cincinnati −21.8 92%
Sat, Nov 12 · TBD Western Kentucky at Louisville Louisville −17.1 86%
Sat, Nov 12 · TBD Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech Southern Miss −13.3 79%
Sat, Nov 12 · TBD Lamar at Texas Tech Texas Tech −34.1 98%