The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 1988

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 31

Wilder than 31% of weeks in the archive.

8 upsets against 11.5 expected

  • Biggest shockOle Miss over Alabama8.6% chance · won 22-12
  • Runner-upMemphis over Florida9.9% chance · won 17-11
  • Runner-upLouisiana Tech over Louisiana24% chance · won 19-16

Upsets

Sat, Oct 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 44 games

Final
Navy@Air Force
7.6%
92%
24
34
✓
AF −23.9
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#24Arkansas
17%
83%
10
31
✓
ARK −15.7
–
–
Final
Ball State@Kent State
58%
42%
31
20
✓
BALL −3.3
–
–
Final
Ohio@Bowling Green
54%
46%
0
42
✗
OHIO −1.7
–
–
Final
Colorado State@BYU
12%
88%
7
42
✓
BYU −19.5
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Eastern Michigan
60%
40%
20
6
✓
CMU −4.1
–
–
Final
#25Clemson@Virginia
81%
19%
10
7
✓
CLEM −14.6
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Cal State Fullerton
81%
19%
23
10
✓
FRES −14.4
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#19Georgia
13%
87%
22
41
✓
UGA −19.1
–
–
Final
Purdue@Illinois
33%
67%
0
20
✓
ILL −7.5
–
–
Final
Ohio State@#21Indiana
20%
80%
7
41
✓
IU −14.1
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Iowa
11%
89%
6
31
✓
IOWA −20.7
–
–
Final
#9Auburn@#13LSU
46%
54%
6
7
✓
LSU −1.6
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Louisville
54%
46%
3
9
✗
TLSA −1.6
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Maryland
27%
73%
8
13
✓
MD −10.3
–
–
Final
Memphis@#17FloridaUpset
9.9%
90%
17
11
✗
FLA −21.5
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#8Michigan
15%
85%
3
17
✓
MICH −17.1
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#10AlabamaUpset
8.6%
91%
22
12
✗
ALA −22.8
–
–
Final
Missouri@Kansas State
81%
19%
52
21
✓
MIZ −14.5
–
–
Final
#7Nebraska@Kansas
99%
1.1%
63
10
✓
NEB −37.9
–
–
Final
UNLV@Pacific
67%
33%
30
16
✓
UNLV −7.1
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Northwestern
71%
29%
28
28
✓
MINN −9.1
–
–
Final
#4Notre Dame@Pittsburgh
74%
26%
30
20
✓
ND −10.5
–
–
Final
Texas@#5Oklahoma
7.2%
93%
13
28
✓
OU −24.4
–
–
Final
#11Oklahoma State@#22Colorado
52%
48%
41
21
✓
OKST −0.8
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#23Penn State
7.2%
93%
9
35
✓
PSU −24.3
–
–
Final
#14South Carolina@Virginia Tech
89%
11%
26
24
✓
SC −19.9
–
–
Final
#20Oregon@#2USC
20%
80%
14
42
✓
USC −14.3
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Tulane
55%
45%
38
13
✓
USM −1.9
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Stanford
37%
63%
12
44
✓
STAN −5.7
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Syracuse
38%
62%
20
34
✓
SYR −5.1
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@#16HoustonUpset
28%
72%
30
16
✗
HOU −9.9
–
–
Final
Rice@TCU
14%
86%
10
21
✓
TCU −18.3
–
–
Final
UTEP@Hawaii
30%
70%
42
25
✗
HAW −8.7
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Toledo
59%
41%
20
33
✗
NIU −3.6
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#3UCLA
6.5%
94%
21
38
✓
UCLA −25.2
–
–
Final
Utah@New Mexico
68%
32%
33
27
✓
UTAH −7.9
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Utah State
10%
90%
24
31
✓
USU −20.9
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Wake Forest
26%
74%
24
42
✓
WAKE −10.5
–
–
Final
Washington@Arizona State
60%
40%
10
0
✓
WASH −3.9
–
–
Final
California@#18Washington State
22%
78%
13
44
✓
WSU −13.0
–
–
Final
#12West Virginia@East Carolina
90%
9.9%
30
10
✓
WVU −21.2
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Miami (OH)
77%
23%
41
18
✓
WMU −12.3
–
–
Final
#15Wyoming@San Diego State
85%
15%
55
27
✓
WYO −17.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 8 · TBD Arkansas State at Akron Arkansas State −2.9 57%
Sat, Oct 8 · TBD Army at Yale Army −40.8 99%
Sat, Oct 8 · TBD Texas State at Baylor Baylor −14.6 81%
Sat, Oct 8 · TBD Georgia Southern at #6 Florida State Florida State −33.8 98%
Sat, Oct 8 · TBD Northern Iowa at Iowa State Iowa State −27.6 95%
Sat, Oct 8 · TBD Louisiana at Louisiana Tech Louisiana −11.5 76%
Sat, Oct 8 · TBD East Tennessee State at NC State NC State −31.1 97%