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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 1988

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 53 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 11

Wilder than 11% of weeks in the archive.

9 upsets against 12.7 expected

  • Biggest shockIllinois over Ohio State15% chance · won 31-12
  • Runner-upNew Mexico State over Kansas21% chance · won 42-29
  • Runner-upMichigan State over Iowa30% chance · won 10-10

Upsets

Fri, Sep 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Utah State@BYU
6.9%
93%
3
38
✓
BYU −24.7
–
–

Sat, Oct 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 45 games

Final
New Mexico@Air Force
2.3%
98%
14
63
✓
AF −33.1
–
–
Final
#7Alabama@Kentucky
72%
28%
31
27
✓
ALA −9.3
–
–
Final
TCU@Arkansas
35%
65%
10
53
✓
ARK −6.5
–
–
Final
North Carolina@#10Auburn
4.9%
95%
21
47
✓
AUB −27.5
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Ball State
18%
82%
14
45
✓
BALL −15.2
–
–
Final
#25Pittsburgh@Boston CollegeUpset
57%
43%
31
34
✗
PITT −2.9
–
–
Final
San Jose State@California
45%
55%
14
21
✓
CAL −2.0
–
–
Final
Kent State@Central Michigan
40%
60%
7
31
✓
CMU −4.5
–
–
Final
#18Colorado@Colorado State
83%
17%
27
23
✓
COLO −15.6
–
–
Final
Duke@Vanderbilt
47%
53%
17
15
✗
VAN −1.4
–
–
Final
#8LSU@#20Florida
59%
41%
6
19
✗
LSU −3.5
–
–
Final
#5Florida State@Tulane
93%
6.6%
48
28
✓
FSU −24.9
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#19Georgia
17%
83%
12
36
✓
UGA −16.1
–
–
Final
#15Houston@Baylor
65%
35%
27
24
✓
HOU −6.3
–
–
Final
Illinois@Ohio StateUpset
15%
86%
31
12
✗
OSU −17.6
–
–
Final
#23Indiana@Northwestern
88%
12%
48
17
✓
IU −19.4
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Iowa
30%
70%
10
10
✗
IOWA −9.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana@East Carolina
60%
40%
48
36
✓
UL −4.3
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Memphis
50%
50%
10
31
✗
MSST −0.1
–
–
Final
Missouri@#1Miami (FL)
1.9%
98%
0
55
✓
MIA −34.4
–
–
Final
#14Michigan@Wisconsin
84%
16%
62
14
✓
MICH −16.5
–
–
Final
UNLV@#4Nebraska
1.1%
99%
6
48
✓
NEB −37.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@KansasUpset
21%
79%
42
29
✗
KU −13.5
–
–
Final
NC State@Georgia Tech
58%
42%
14
6
✓
NCSU −3.1
–
–
Final
Stanford@#9Notre Dame
19%
81%
14
42
✓
ND −14.8
–
–
Final
Toledo@Ohio
46%
54%
14
24
✓
OHIO −1.7
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#3Oklahoma
1.9%
98%
7
35
✓
OU −34.5
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#12Oklahoma State
8.4%
92%
35
56
✓
OKST −22.9
–
–
Final
#22Oregon@San Diego State
77%
23%
34
13
✓
ORE −12.1
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Oregon State
48%
52%
10
21
✓
ORST −1.0
–
–
Final
Pacific@Long Beach State
41%
59%
22
10
✗
Long Beach State −4.0
–
–
Final
Penn State@Temple
73%
27%
45
9
✓
PSU −10.1
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Purdue
52%
48%
10
14
✗
MINN −0.7
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Rutgers
21%
79%
9
38
✓
RUTG −13.5
–
–
Final
#6USC@#16Arizona
57%
43%
38
15
✓
USC −2.7
–
–
Final
Louisville@Southern Miss
28%
72%
23
30
✓
USM −10.0
–
–
Final
Maryland@#24Syracuse
19%
81%
9
20
✓
SYR −14.8
–
–
Final
Texas@Rice
78%
22%
20
13
✓
TEX −12.8
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Texas A&M
42%
58%
15
50
✓
TA&M −3.4
–
–
Final
Utah@UTEP
14%
86%
28
38
✓
UTEP −17.8
–
–
Final
#2UCLA@Washington
74%
26%
24
17
✓
UCLA −10.4
–
–
Final
Washington State@Tennessee
63%
37%
52
24
✓
WSU −5.4
–
–
Final
#11West Virginia@Virginia Tech
92%
7.6%
22
10
✓
WVU −23.6
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Western Michigan
7.4%
93%
10
37
✓
WMU −24.1
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@#13Wyoming
1.2%
99%
16
35
✓
WYO −37.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 1 · TBD Akron at Youngstown State Akron −10.9 75%
Sat, Oct 1 · TBD Lamar at Arizona State Arizona State −33.9 98%
Sat, Oct 1 · TBD Bucknell at Army Army −21.9 91%
Sat, Oct 1 · TBD Louisiana Tech at Kansas State Louisiana Tech −2.6 56%
Sat, Oct 1 · TBD Yale at Navy Navy −27.4 95%
Sat, Oct 1 · TBD Missouri State at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −7.9 68%
Sat, Oct 1 · TBD Appalachian State at #17 South Carolina South Carolina −19.6 88%