The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 1995

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 46 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 48

Wilder than 48% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 11.9 expected

  • Biggest shockKansas over Colorado5.5% chance · won 40-24
  • Runner-upTulsa over Wyoming19% chance · won 35-6
  • Runner-upNorthwestern over Michigan20% chance · won 19-13

Upsets

Sat, Oct 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 45 games

Final
UTEP@Air Force
4.0%
96%
46
56
✓
AF −29.1
–
–
Final
NC State@#15Alabama
8.5%
92%
11
27
✓
ALA −22.8
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#14Auburn
14%
86%
20
48
✓
AUB −18.4
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Boston College
26%
74%
0
17
✓
BC −11.0
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Cincinnati
53%
47%
10
13
✗
ECU −1.0
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Utah State
80%
20%
59
17
✓
CSU −13.8
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Eastern Michigan
39%
61%
24
34
✓
EMU −4.7
–
–
Final
#4Florida@#21LSU
74%
26%
28
10
✓
FLA −10.4
–
–
Final
#10Miami (FL)@#3Florida State
19%
81%
17
41
✓
FSU −14.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Fresno State
28%
72%
34
51
✓
FRES −9.8
–
–
Final
Georgia@Clemson
49%
51%
19
17
✗
CLEM −0.6
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Duke
51%
49%
37
21
✓
GT −0.4
–
–
Final
Illinois@Indiana
60%
40%
17
10
✓
ILL −4.2
–
–
Final
Iowa@Michigan State
44%
56%
21
7
✗
MSU −2.6
–
–
Final
Kansas@#2ColoradoUpset
5.5%
94%
40
24
✗
COLO −26.6
–
–
Final
Missouri@#13Kansas State
8.2%
92%
0
30
✓
KSU −23.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Arkansas State
73%
27%
33
9
✓
UL −10.3
–
–
Final
Maryland@Wake Forest
74%
26%
9
6
✓
MD −10.5
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Bowling Green
40%
60%
21
0
✗
BGSU −4.3
–
–
Final
Purdue@Minnesota
44%
56%
38
39
✓
MINN −2.5
–
–
Final
Tulane@Ole Miss
18%
82%
17
20
✓
MISS −15.5
–
–
Final
North Texas@Nevada
9.0%
91%
24
56
✓
NEV −22.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@New Mexico State
53%
47%
13
48
✗
LT −1.1
–
–
Final
#16Virginia@North CarolinaUpset
59%
41%
17
22
✗
UVA −3.6
–
–
Final
UNLV@Northern Illinois
19%
81%
14
62
✓
NIU −14.4
–
–
Final
#25Northwestern@#9MichiganUpset
20%
80%
19
13
✗
MICH −13.9
–
–
Final
#12Notre Dame@Washington
59%
41%
29
21
✓
ND −3.8
–
–
Final
#5Ohio State@#7Penn State
54%
46%
28
25
✓
OSU −1.5
–
–
Final
Oklahoma@Iowa State
78%
22%
39
26
✓
OU −12.7
–
–
Final
Pacific@#20Oregon
2.3%
98%
7
45
✓
ORE −33.2
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Utah
28%
72%
24
21
✗
UTAH −9.9
–
–
Final
Kent State@South Carolina
2.8%
97%
14
77
✓
SC −31.8
–
–
Final
#6USC@California
85%
15%
26
16
✓
USC −17.0
–
–
Final
Louisville@Southern Miss
26%
74%
21
25
✓
USM −10.9
–
–
Final
#22Stanford@Arizona State
67%
33%
30
28
✓
STAN −7.1
–
–
Final
Temple@Syracuse
7.7%
92%
14
31
✓
SYR −23.8
–
–
Final
#11Tennessee@#23Arkansas
59%
41%
49
31
✓
TENN −3.8
–
–
Final
Rice@#24Texas
14%
86%
13
37
✓
TEX −18.2
–
–
Final
Houston@TCU
13%
87%
21
31
✓
TCU −18.6
–
–
Final
#8Texas A&M@#19Texas Tech
59%
41%
7
14
✗
TA&M −3.7
–
–
Final
Ball State@Toledo
20%
80%
14
17
✓
TOL −14.3
–
–
Final
Wyoming@TulsaUpset
81%
19%
6
35
✗
WYO −14.6
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Navy
68%
32%
14
0
✓
VT −7.7
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Washington State
11%
89%
14
40
✓
WSU −20.2
–
–
Final
Akron@Western Michigan
11%
89%
3
7
✓
WMU −20.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 7 · TBD Troy at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −1.5 53%