The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 1995

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 48 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 41

Wilder than 41% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 12.9 expected

  • Biggest shockNew Mexico over Colorado State16% chance · won 22-14
  • Runner-upNorthwestern State over Louisiana-Monroe16% chance · won 42-39
  • Runner-upArmy over Boston College20% chance · won 49-7

Upsets

Sat, Oct 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 45 games

Final
#24Alabama@Ole Miss
65%
35%
23
9
✓
ALA −6.5
–
–
Final
Army@Boston CollegeUpset
20%
80%
49
7
✗
BC −13.0
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@#13Auburn
5.0%
95%
13
34
✓
AUB −26.0
–
–
Final
Wyoming@BYU
35%
65%
20
23
✓
BYU −5.7
–
–
Final
California@Oregon State
63%
37%
13
12
✓
CAL −5.7
–
–
Final
Kent State@Central Michigan
5.5%
94%
16
27
✓
CMU −25.2
–
–
Final
Memphis@Cincinnati
36%
64%
3
28
✓
CIN −5.1
–
–
Final
Clemson@Maryland
38%
62%
17
0
✗
MD −4.4
–
–
Final
#5Colorado@Iowa State
97%
2.6%
50
28
✓
COLO −31.4
–
–
Final
Temple@East Carolina
11%
89%
22
32
✓
ECU −19.3
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Ball State
33%
67%
40
35
✗
BALL −6.7
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#2Florida State
2.4%
98%
10
42
✓
FSU −31.4
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Georgia
21%
79%
3
12
✓
UGA −12.5
–
–
Final
SMU@Houston
48%
52%
15
38
✓
HOU −0.1
–
–
Final
#20Kansas@Oklahoma
47%
53%
38
17
✗
OU −0.7
–
–
Final
Pacific@Louisiana
12%
88%
3
45
✓
UL −18.4
–
–
Final
North Texas@LSU
3.2%
97%
7
49
✓
LSU −29.5
–
–
Final
#10Miami (FL)@Pittsburgh
84%
16%
17
16
✓
MIA −16.0
–
–
Final
#9Michigan@Indiana
81%
19%
34
17
✓
MICH −14.7
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Michigan State
36%
64%
31
34
✓
MSU −5.2
–
–
Final
#11Kansas State@#1Nebraska
11%
89%
25
49
✓
NEB −19.1
–
–
Final
Nevada@Louisiana Tech
88%
12%
49
45
✓
NEV −19.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Colorado StateUpset
16%
84%
22
14
✗
CSU −15.7
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@North Carolina
8.9%
91%
7
31
✓
UNC −21.1
–
–
Final
NC State@Duke
40%
60%
41
38
✗
DUKE −3.5
–
–
Final
#21Wisconsin@#18Northwestern
36%
64%
0
35
✓
NU −5.2
–
–
Final
#7USC@#12Notre Dame
54%
46%
10
38
✗
USC −2.0
–
–
Final
Ohio@Akron
43%
57%
29
23
✗
AKR −2.3
–
–
Final
Purdue@#4Ohio State
9.0%
91%
0
28
✓
OSU −21.1
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Missouri
48%
52%
30
26
✗
MIZ −0.3
–
–
Final
Washington State@#15Oregon
30%
70%
7
26
✓
ORE −7.7
–
–
Final
#8Penn State@#23Iowa
61%
39%
41
27
✓
PSU −4.9
–
–
Final
San Jose State@San Diego State
5.9%
94%
20
49
✓
SDSU −24.6
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@South Carolina
11%
89%
14
52
✓
SC −19.5
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Syracuse
30%
70%
0
22
✓
SYR −7.9
–
–
Final
#19Virginia@#25Texas
46%
54%
16
17
✓
TEX −1.1
–
–
Final
#14Texas A&M@#22Baylor
49%
51%
24
9
✗
TA&M −0.1
–
–
Final
Tulane@TCU
14%
86%
11
16
✓
TCU −16.9
–
–
Final
Rice@#16Texas Tech
6.0%
94%
26
31
✓
TTU −24.6
–
–
Final
Toledo@Bowling Green
58%
42%
35
16
✓
TOL −3.6
–
–
Final
#17UCLA@Stanford
52%
48%
42
28
✓
UCLA −1.5
–
–
Final
Air Force@Utah
39%
61%
21
22
✓
UTAH −4.1
–
–
Final
Utah State@New Mexico State
40%
60%
27
14
✗
NMSU −3.8
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Rutgers
74%
26%
45
17
✓
VT −10.8
–
–
Final
Washington@Arizona
49%
51%
31
17
✗
WASH −0.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 21 · TBD UCF at Hawaii Hawaii −0.1 51%
Sat, Oct 21 · TBD Villanova at Navy Navy −15.4 84%
Sat, Oct 21 · TBD Northwestern State at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −15.7 84%