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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 1995

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2

Chaos 12

Wilder than 12% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 13.2 expected

  • Biggest shockPacific over Oregon State17% chance · won 23-10
  • Runner-upEast Carolina over Syracuse27% chance · won 27-24
  • Runner-upLSU over Mississippi State29% chance · won 34-16

Upsets

Thu, Sep 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Georgia Tech@#18Arizona
13%
87%
19
20
✓
ARIZ −17.1
–
–
Final
Boston College@Virginia Tech
40%
60%
20
14
✗
VT −3.6
–
–

Sat, Sep 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 39 games

Final
Wyoming@#20Air Force
22%
78%
10
34
✓
AF −11.4
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@#16Alabama
29%
71%
20
24
✓
ALA −7.9
–
–
Final
UTEP@Arizona State
10%
90%
20
45
✓
ASU −19.2
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Arkansas
40%
60%
21
51
✓
ARK −3.6
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Missouri
43%
57%
17
10
✗
MIZ −2.3
–
–
Final
Colorado State@#3Colorado
9.5%
90%
14
42
✓
COLO −19.9
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Duke
38%
62%
14
24
✓
DUKE −4.1
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Syracuse
27%
73%
27
24
✗
SYR −8.9
–
–
Final
#5Florida@Kentucky
90%
9.8%
42
7
✓
FLA −20.5
–
–
Final
#1Florida State@Clemson
90%
9.8%
45
26
✓
FSU −20.5
–
–
Final
Fresno State@California
48%
52%
25
24
✗
CAL −0.2
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Indiana
19%
81%
10
24
✓
IU −13.2
–
–
Final
Kansas@North Texas
75%
25%
27
10
✓
KU −10.7
–
–
Final
#13Kansas State@Cincinnati
78%
22%
23
21
✓
KSU −12.7
–
–
Final
LSU@Mississippi State
29%
71%
34
16
✗
MSST −8.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Houston
55%
45%
19
7
✓
LT −2.5
–
–
Final
Louisville@Northern Illinois
68%
32%
34
21
✓
LOU −7.6
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Maryland
44%
56%
18
32
✓
MD −1.9
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Kent State
64%
36%
39
0
✓
M-OH −6.2
–
–
Final
Memphis@#7Michigan
11%
89%
7
24
✓
MICH −18.5
–
–
Final
Navy@SMU
30%
70%
33
2
✗
SMU −7.7
–
–
Final
#2Nebraska@Michigan State
83%
17%
50
10
✓
NEB −15.0
–
–
Final
Nevada@New Mexico State
68%
32%
45
24
✓
NEV −7.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@UNLV
34%
66%
23
28
✓
UNLV −5.6
–
–
Final
#24Notre Dame@Purdue
47%
53%
35
28
✗
PUR −0.6
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Oklahoma
45%
55%
22
38
✓
OU −1.2
–
–
Final
Illinois@#14Oregon
28%
72%
31
34
✓
ORE −8.5
–
–
Final
Oregon State@PacificUpset
83%
17%
10
23
✗
ORST −15.4
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#10Penn State
19%
81%
23
24
✓
PSU −13.1
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Pittsburgh
32%
68%
30
66
✓
PITT −6.7
–
–
Final
San Jose State@#21USC
4.6%
95%
7
45
✓
USC −25.9
–
–
Final
Stanford@#25UtahUpset
31%
69%
27
20
✗
UTAH −7.0
–
–
Final
#19Georgia@#9Tennessee
28%
72%
27
30
✓
TENN −8.7
–
–
Final
Iowa State@TCU
26%
74%
10
27
✓
TCU −9.4
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Tulane
50%
50%
9
35
✗
WAKE −0.6
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Tulsa
50%
50%
23
24
✗
OKST −0.6
–
–
Final
#12UCLA@BYU
68%
32%
23
9
✓
UCLA −7.8
–
–
Final
#23Virginia@NC State
53%
47%
29
24
✓
UVA −1.5
–
–
Final
Temple@West Virginia
14%
86%
13
24
✓
WVU −16.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Lehigh at Army Army −17.2 87%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Chattanooga at #8 Auburn Auburn −50.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Western Illinois at Ball State Ball State −29.2 97%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Boise State at Utah State Boise State −6.9 66%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Weber State at Central Michigan Central Michigan −35.4 99%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Northern Iowa at Iowa Iowa −23.6 94%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD UAB at Louisiana Louisiana −11.2 78%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Nicholls at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −13.5 82%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Florida A&M at #4 Miami (FL) Miami (FL) −41.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Indiana State at Ole Miss Ole Miss −34.1 99%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Illinois State at Ohio Ohio −7.4 70%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD East Tennessee State at Toledo Toledo −33.7 98%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Montana at Washington State Washington State −30.0 97%