The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 1995

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 46 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 87

Wilder than 87% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 11.2 expected

  • Biggest shockWisconsin over Penn State13% chance · won 17-9
  • Runner-upLouisiana-Monroe over Mississippi State14% chance · won 34-32
  • Runner-upAkron over Central Michigan14% chance · won 16-13

Upsets

Thu, Sep 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
#24Maryland@Georgia TechUpset
72%
28%
3
31
✗
MD −9.5
–
–
Final
Nevada@San Diego State
45%
55%
27
30
✓
SDSU −2.1
–
–

Sat, Sep 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 44 games

Final
Air Force@New Mexico
64%
36%
27
24
✓
AF −6.0
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@AkronUpset
86%
14%
13
16
✗
CMU −17.7
–
–
Final
Alabama@#22GeorgiaUpset
38%
62%
31
0
✗
UGA −5.0
–
–
Final
California@Arizona
31%
69%
15
20
✓
ARIZ −8.4
–
–
Final
Arkansas@Vanderbilt
73%
27%
35
7
✓
ARK −10.2
–
–
Final
#13Auburn@Kentucky
80%
20%
42
21
✓
AUB −13.9
–
–
Final
#15Texas Tech@BaylorUpset
53%
46%
7
9
✗
TTU −1.4
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Temple
73%
27%
37
31
✓
BGSU −10.2
–
–
Final
BYU@Colorado State
28%
72%
28
21
✗
CSU −9.7
–
–
Final
Clemson@NC State
45%
55%
43
22
✗
NCSU −2.1
–
–
Final
#3Colorado@#20Oklahoma
80%
20%
38
17
✓
COLO −13.6
–
–
Final
West Virginia@East Carolina
39%
61%
20
23
✓
ECU −4.6
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#4Florida
4.7%
95%
10
28
✓
FLA −27.9
–
–
Final
Hawaii@UNLV
70%
30%
58
30
✓
HAW −8.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Iowa
9.5%
90%
21
59
✓
IOWA −21.8
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@#14Kansas State
4.1%
96%
0
44
✓
KSU −28.9
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#16LSU
15%
85%
20
20
✗
LSU −17.2
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Louisiana Tech
37%
63%
23
27
✓
LT −5.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Mississippi StateUpset
14%
86%
34
32
✗
MSST −18.3
–
–
Final
Louisville@Memphis
35%
65%
17
7
✗
MEM −6.4
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@#9Michigan
11%
89%
19
38
✓
MICH −20.3
–
–
Final
Boston College@Michigan State
43%
57%
21
25
✓
MSU −3.1
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Minnesota
6.6%
93%
7
55
✓
MINN −25.1
–
–
Final
Navy@DukeUpset
16%
84%
30
9
✗
DUKE −16.4
–
–
Final
Washington State@#1Nebraska
4.9%
95%
21
35
✓
NEB −27.5
–
–
Final
Ohio@North Carolina
7.4%
93%
0
62
✓
UNC −24.1
–
–
Final
Indiana@Northwestern
29%
71%
7
31
✓
NU −9.2
–
–
Final
#10Notre Dame@#6Ohio State
28%
72%
26
45
✓
OSU −9.7
–
–
Final
Ball State@Purdue
16%
84%
13
35
✓
PUR −16.3
–
–
Final
Army@Rice
38%
62%
21
21
✗
RICE −5.0
–
–
Final
Utah State@San Jose State
53%
47%
30
32
✗
USU −1.1
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#8USC
9.6%
90%
0
31
✓
USC −21.7
–
–
Final
Tulane@Southern Miss
19%
81%
0
45
✓
USM −14.5
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Rutgers
62%
38%
27
17
✓
SYR −5.2
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#11Tennessee
6.8%
93%
0
31
✓
TENN −24.8
–
–
Final
Texas@SMU
84%
16%
35
10
✓
TEX −16.8
–
–
Final
Toledo@Cincinnati
37%
63%
45
31
✗
CIN −5.6
–
–
Final
Fresno State@#19UCLA
30%
70%
21
45
✓
UCLA −9.1
–
–
Final
#23Utah@UTEP
93%
6.8%
34
21
✓
UTAH −24.7
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#17Virginia
4.8%
95%
17
35
✓
UVA −27.6
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Pittsburgh
47%
53%
26
16
✗
PITT −1.4
–
–
Final
Washington@Oregon State
76%
24%
26
16
✓
WASH −11.9
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Kent State
69%
31%
52
6
✓
WMU −8.2
–
–
Final
#25Wisconsin@#5Penn StateUpset
13%
87%
17
9
✗
PSU −18.5
–
–