The MRI
2026 · Week 11

Week 13 slate, 1995

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 48 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 6

Wilder than 6% of weeks in the archive.

8 upsets against 11.2 expected

  • Biggest shockUTEP over New Mexico21% chance · won 17-12
  • Runner-upUCLA over USC29% chance · won 24-20
  • Runner-upIowa over Wisconsin31% chance · won 33-20

Upsets

Sat, Nov 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 45 games

Final
29%
72%
27
31
✓
AUB −8.6
–
–
Final
15%
85%
6
34
✓
BAY −15.8
–
–
Final
70%
30%
24
5
✓
CIN −8.9
–
–
Final
49%
51%
38
17
✗
CLEM −0.1
–
–
Final
40%
60%
27
17
✗
KSU −3.6
–
–
Final
17%
83%
17
31
✓
ECU −15.1
–
–
Final
85%
15%
40
7
✓
EMU −16.7
–
–
Final
0.3%
>99%
7
38
✓
FLA −44.4
–
–
Final
2.3%
98%
17
59
✓
FSU −31.8
–
–
Final
28%
72%
14
48
✓
ILL −8.6
–
–
Final
31%
69%
33
20
✗
WIS −7.4
–
–
Final
71%
29%
22
17
✓
KU −9.3
–
–
Final
34%
66%
0
28
✓
LSU −6.0
–
–
Final
42%
58%
14
59
✓
LT −2.7
–
–
Final
2.9%
97%
14
57
✓
LOU −30.0
–
–
Final
14%
86%
12
17
✓
MIA −16.8
–
–
Final
1.5%
98%
0
65
✓
M-OH −34.5
–
–
Final
36%
64%
31
45
✓
MIZ −5.1
–
–
Final
29%
72%
7
35
✓
NAVY −8.6
–
–
Final
6.2%
94%
28
45
✓
NEV −24.3
–
–
Final
76%
24%
58
34
✓
NMSU −11.9
–
–
Final
16%
84%
24
28
✓
UNC −15.3
–
–
Final
55%
45%
52
23
✓
NCSU −2.3
–
–
Final
62%
38%
23
8
✓
NU −5.4
–
–
Final
66%
34%
44
14
✓
ND −7.3
–
–
Final
1.4%
99%
3
42
✓
OSU −35.0
–
–
Final
5.3%
95%
10
12
✓
ORE −25.6
–
–
Final
38%
62%
17
27
✓
PSU −4.2
–
–
Final
48%
52%
23
20
✗
TEM −0.4
–
–
Final
71%
29%
49
10
✓
SDSU −9.3
–
–
Final
60%
40%
35
32
✓
USM −4.3
–
–
Final
19%
81%
24
29
✓
STAN −13.7
–
–
Final
22%
78%
29
58
✓
SYR −11.8
–
–
Final
92%
7.8%
34
31
✓
TENN −23.1
–
–
Final
13%
87%
19
27
✓
TEX −17.7
–
–
Final
93%
7.4%
45
14
✓
TTU −23.5
–
–
Final
79%
21%
12
17
✗
UNM −13.4
–
–
Final
2.6%
97%
20
31
✓
TOL −30.8
–
–
Final
#22UCLA@#13USC
29%
71%
24
20
✗
USC −8.3
–
–
Final
42%
58%
34
17
✗
BYU −2.9
–
–
Final
Pacific@Utah State
17%
83%
22
38
✓
USU −14.6
–
–
Final
43%
57%
36
29
✗
UVA −2.5
–
–
Final
16%
84%
30
33
✓
WASH −15.7
–
–
Final
32%
68%
31
48
✓
WMU −7.1
–
–
Final
36%
64%
10
38
✓
WYO −5.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 18 · TBD Mississippi Valley State at Arkansas State Arkansas State −5.4 64%
Sat, Nov 18 · TBD Bucknell at Army Army −25.7 95%
Sat, Nov 18 · TBD Middle Tennessee at #16 Texas A&M Texas A&M −31.4 98%